Patrick Reusse: Get excited? Not with this lineup of Twins

The sense of anticipation that another second-half charge and improbable run to the AL playoffs are in the cards just isn't there.

By Patrick Reusse, Star Tribune

Last update: July 10, 2007 - 9:58 PM

The Twins reached the 2006 All-Star break with 22 victories in 28 games. This included a 19-2 streak. They also were carrying a 30-10 record in the Metrodome.

Overall, the Twins were 47-39 and trailing Detroit by 11 games and the Chicago White Sox by nine in the AL Central. As daunting as those margins were, the pre-All-Star revival and the Dome domination did hint that something remarkable might be occurring with Ron Gardenhire's ballclub.

No such hints are available at this summer's break.

The Twins were 16-12 in the four weeks leading to the break. There has been no magic in the Dome, where they are 22-20.

These third-place Twins might be closer to first -- eight behind Detroit, seven behind Cleveland -- but the record is 45-43 and no streak of impressive play has lasted more than a few days.

The Tigers are going to win the same 95 (minimum) as last season, and that means the Twins would require playing .676 (50-24) to get even with them.

Still a chance for the wild card? The fewest victories in the past decade to claim the AL's wild-card berth were Seattle's 91 in 2000. The Twins still would have to play .622 (46-28) to reach that number.

It's not that complicated, folks: You look at the Twins' mediocrity, in or out of the Dome, through 88 games and it's a hallucination to think they are capable of sustaining .622 baseball or better for 2 ½ months.

This is a team with a No. 1 starter in Johan Santana, a bunch of No. 5s in Carlos Silva, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser, and a starting suspect in Matt Garza.

This is a team that has gotten as much out of its two top sluggers, Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter, as could be expected through the first 55 percent of the schedule, and with that production they are a paltry two games over .500.

We know that Morneau and Hunter will not get hotter in the weeks ahead and, as happens with power hitters, they could get cooler. What would happen then with this team's often-impotent hitting is anyone's guess.

A guy who spends his working moments in the press box was in the Yankee Stadium stands for four games last week. It's easy to turn into a fan when the home state team is playing the budget-busting Yankees.

And maybe that was the perspective -- fan in the stands -- needed to fully appreciate the frustration this lineup must bring to a Minnesota sporting public that opened the season with a strong urge to be optimistic.

You're sitting there and see Hunter leave a runner at second base against Chien-Ming Wang in the second inning, and you say, "This club doesn't have a chance to score again until the fifth."

This isn't sarcasm. This is reality.

The Twins can have the appearance of a hitting machine, as long as the opponents pitch as if they were a collection of Northern League rejects. That was the case in Friday's 32-run feast in Chicago.

The reality came in the subsequent futility against Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez.

A competent starter faces 3 through 6 -- Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Morneau and Hunter -- and then what's the worst thing that can happen to him for the next five batters? It's probably a chopped single off the plate by Luis Castillo.

General Manager Terry Ryan has to look at the '07 Twins for what they are -- non-contenders -- and start working on his lineup for next season.

Right now, he needs a third baseman, a left fielder and a designated hitter. He also figures to need a center fielder and a second baseman, with Hunter and Castillo as pending free agents.

Any thoughts among the Twins constituency that Hunter might be signable will blow up if Tuesday's report -- that Ichiro Suzuki and Seattle are about to agree on a five-year, $100 million contract -- proves accurate. That would mean goodbye, Torii ... it has been a nice run as a playoff contender.

It also would mean Ryan has a July 31 deadline to trade the veterans at the end of contracts -- Hunter, Castillo, Silva -- with the idea the Twins will need a very different lineup to regain their contending status in 2008.

Patrick Reusse can be heard weekdays on AM-1500 KSTP at 6:45 and 7:45 a.m. and 4:40 p.m. • preusse@startribune.com

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