Jim Souhan: Twins might be right where they should be

Mankind has long yearned for proof of miracles, some by looking for the Virgin Mary's face in a bar of soap, some by reviewing the last four months of the Twins' 2006 season.

On many levels, the 2007 season has been a disappointment. The Twins have underachieved, fretted over contracts and trade rumors and suffered more than their share of injuries and slumps.

You can call this season a failure, or a market correction. The latter might be more realistic.

For the first two months of the 2006 season, the Twins played much as they have this season. On June 7 they fell to 25-33. For the rest of the season, they went 71-33, in what might have been the best extended stretch of regular season baseball in franchise history.

They finished the season on Oct. 1, beating the White Sox at the Metrodome while Joe Mauer won the batting title.

Then they watched the Tigers lose on the stadium scoreboard before celebrating the division championship in front of a packed house.

Johan Santana won the Cy Young, Justin Morneau the MVP award and Torii Hunter another Gold Glove. This confluence of events was unique in baseball history, and we now know that expecting a sequel was foolish.

In 2006, Nick Punto took over the starting third base job in June and hit .290 with 45 RBI in 459 at-bats. This year, Punto is hitting .197 with 22 RBI in 411 at-bats.

In 2006, Jason Bartlett played the last 99 games of the season, stayed healthy, made 13 errors and hit .309. This year he has battled nagging injuries, played in 121 games, made 23 errors and hit .275.

In 2006, Joe Mauer hit .347 in 140 games. This year he's hitting .294 in 95 games.

In 2006, Michael Cuddyer stayed healthy, driving in 109 runs in 150 games. This year, hampered by at least two significant injuries, he has 72 RBI in 121 games.

The differences in health and production have been remarkable among the relievers, as well. In 2006, the Twins had six relievers finish the season with ERAs of 3.52 or lower.

In 2006, journeyman Dennys Reyes, whose ERAs in his previous five big-league stops had been 5.15, 4.75, 11.57, 10.45 and 6.38, went 5-0 with 0.89 ERA.

Would he re-live that miracle in 2007? Of course not. He's 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA and possibly headed for elbow surgery.

With Reyes less healthy and effective, Jesse Crain lost for the season and Juan Rincon carrying a 5.58 ERA, the bullpen has relied on three people -- exceptional closer Joe Nathan, the impressive but fading Pat Neshek and the reliable Matt Guerrier.

The constant in the Twins' six consecutive winning seasons has been a deep, reliable bullpen. This year it's been shallower than People Magazine.

The team's injuries, lack of depth and puzzling personnel moves have left the handful of star players overburdened, where last year even the most innocuous players on the roster contributed. Francisco Liriano emerged in 2006 to boost the rotation; in 2007 the farm system has offered no miracle cures.

"I think with our run last year, you have to have a lot of things go your way," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "Guys have to have their career years, guys are clicking on all cylinders, and it was a lot of guys who were doing it at the same time, which was amazing.

"And we did it pretty much injury-free ... This year we've had a little more struggle keeping guys on the field, and offensively we've had some guys just not put up the numbers they did, and that's the game -- being able to maintain and produce the same numbers."

Speaking in the dugout Tuesday afternoon, Gardenhire didn't sound all that distraught. The long view is that the Twins overachieved in 2006 and underachieved in 2007. Another way to look at it: If not for a miraculous comeback in 2003, the Twins would have won division titles in '02, '04 and '06 and faltered the following year.

Slumps may be market corrections, or they may simply be human nature.

Jim Souhan can be heard Sundays from 10 a.m.-noon on AM-1500 KSTP. • jsouhan@startribune.com