Scott County unveils big plan, braces for complaints

Scott County is unveiling this week what officials are calling the last best chance to "paint the picture" of its future in the decades to come. And they're bracing for hostile reaction.

The county's plan for the next quarter century, on display at an open house Tuesday night and on the Web on Wednesday, envisions a future in which farming almost disappears in the generations to come.

But, even as it turns vast stretches of featureless farmland over to future subdivisions, it urges aggressive steps to preserve sensitive natural resources such as streams and wetlands.

If the reaction Tuesday seemed subdued, said one rural resident who's been taking part in the process, it's because "rural people just don't come out for these things like they should, that's what irritates me."

Once word spreads that big changes are afoot, added Bill Schneider, who lives on "40 acres on a dirt road" near Jordan, "you'll get a big group complaining, but by then it might be too late. It's like the boat has left the dock. People need to stay involved."

The problem for many of those in rural areas: The plan would greatly restrict what landowners in some rural areas could do with their property. Over a huge swath of the central part of the country, it would forbid the sort of "10 acres with a horse" development that Scott has become known for. Most of that land -- save for certain corridors and spots with valuable natural features -- could be kept clear for hundreds of thousands of future residents living in much denser, suburban-style subdivisions served by a major new sewer plant.

Whatever the outcome, officials warn, the once-remote county has reached a critical moment in its history: Plans laid today will resonate for centuries to come.

"Once this is done," County Commissioner Bob Vogel told an audience of more than 200 at Prior Lake High School, "if it's not done right, it may be too late."

The county now holds about 120,000 people, up from just 90,000 at the beginning of the decade, and is heading toward a projected 222,000 by the year 2030. More than 40 percent of the county's land is still farmed.

Officials admit they aren't sure where the money would come from to make the major road improvements that would be needed to keep all the new traffic flowing freely.

Today there are "very few red lines" on a map of Scott County, said Lezlie Vermillion, the county's public works director, referring to congested roads. But maps for 2030 and 2050, given current spending plans, show many miles of congestion all over the northern portion of the county.

The plan assumes the county will be willing to make a huge tradeoff. In exchange for the Metropolitan Council eventually bringing in a massive new sewer plant to serve the southern end of its territory, Scott would put an end to piecemeal development of hobby-farm-size lots all over rural areas in a huge swath down its center stretching almost all the way from Shakopee to the southern border.

The problem: Huge lots make it unwieldy in the long run to install the sewer and water pipes needed for the future cities that would gradually cover what is now farmland.

Scattered unhappy exchanges between rural landowners and planners in the informal open house that followed the formal presentation were a sign that things could get tense as the public process continues.

"Residents know they've had a chance to talk, but they wonder if it will make any difference," said Herb Baldwin, a rural township resident living on 34 acres who is on the steering committee for the planning process.

But people need to understand, he said, that the plan merely seeks to "look around the corner," and it lays out a clear, honest picture of what's coming.

Many of those attending were pleased that the county is taking steps to identify and protect sensitive natural areas. One tactic will be to offer landowners the right to build at higher densities -- adding dollar value -- if they set aside valuable natural areas.

"It will be based on incentives, though," not regulation, said Paul Nelson, the county's natural resources program manager. The county's ethic calls for "conservation," he said, "but also private property rights."

David Peterson • 612-673-4440

David Peterson • dapeterson@startribune.com