Severe Threat Tuesday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL Risk of severe storms across parts of the region on Tuesday. The marginal risk means that a few isolated storms could be a little on the strong side, but it shouldn't be too widespread. However, the threat does include the Twin Cities, so keep an eye on the storm potential later today. 
 

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Weather Outlook Tuesday & Wednesday
 
Here's the weather outlook from Tuesday into Wednesday, which shows unsettled weather moving through the region on Tuesday with areas of showers and storms. Keep in mind that some of the storms on Tuesday could be a little on the more vigorous side. 
 

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Rainfall Potential
 
According to NOAA's WPC, the rainfall potential through midweek suggests pockets of heavier rainfall across parts of the state through midweek. Areas of heavy rain will be possible with any of the stronger storms that develop on Tuesday. 
 
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Tuesday Weather Outlook
 
Weather conditions on Tuesday will be fairly cool for mid August. In fact, temps across the northern half of the state will only warm into the 60s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. Temps in the Twin Cities will only warm into the upper 70s, which will be a few degrees below average. 
 
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Fall Ragweed Allergies

It's that time of the year again where Fall Rageweed Allergy sufferers are starting to get sneezy and itchy. Oh yes, one of my favorite times of the year - NOT! I don't know about you, but I start getting bad around State Fair Time and that is right around the corner. If you're like me, start taking those allergy meds, hopefully you can start building up those immunities! The image below shows the steading increase in pollen levels over the last 30 days in Minneapolis. Keep in mind that pollen level will continue to rise and will be consistently in the "high" category over the next several weeks. Pollen levels won't really drop until we see our first frosts of the season, which on average arrive early/mid October in the Twin Cities.

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"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HeathLine.com HERE:

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"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

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"Phenology: August 7th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week:
 
"Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate.  Each week we hear from listeners who have been paying attention to nature in our Talkback segment and John Latimer takes a close look at the blooms and changes happening while considering how the timing measures up to past years in his Phenology Report. This week John updates us on bluebirds, berries, deerflies, hazelnuts, and blooms of asters, fireweed and fringed purple orchids.  John reminds us of some things that happen during August including  large flocks of loons on the lakes as they gather and prepare for migration, masses of monarchs, and nighthawks."
 
 
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US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on August 6th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.

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2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including Sioux Falls, SD and Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 36.03" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 21st wettest year ever in recorded history. Sioux Falls is off to its 2nd wettest start any year on record with 27.58" of precipitation. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities is at its 8th wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +6.05".


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National Precipitation Since January 1st
 
Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis more than 11" above average and off to its 4th wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there.
 
 
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US Drought Monitor
 
According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. In fact, areas of Moderate and Severe drought conditions have been steadily expanding over the last several weeks. Hopefully we can get some moisture there sometime soon!
 
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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, it appears that folks in the eastern half of the nation will be wetter than average has we head into the 3rd week of August, while folks in the Southwest will be drier than average. 
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through the 3rd week of August suggests warmer than average temps returning to much of the naiton, including the Upper Midwest and across much of Alaska. 


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Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

We are less than 2 weeks away from the start of the Minnesota and summer slide sure seems to be moving along at a pretty good clip. The extended temperature outlook for the Twin Cities still looks a little cooler through much of the week ahead, but extended models do warm us back up to near 90F by the weekend and into next week. 

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Warmest August Temps at MSP on Record
 
Here's a look at the highest temps ever recorded in the Twin Cities during the month of August. Note that there have only been four, 100F+ degree days. The most recent hot temp during the month of August was back in 2001 when we hit 99F !! The month with the most 100F+ days in the Twin Cities is July with that happening 25 times! Interestingly, we've only hit 100F+ at the MSP Aiport (31 times) in recorded history...
 
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Somewhat Unsettled Tuesday. Perseids Peak
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Happy National Left Handers Day to all my fellow southpaws out there! We are a rare bunch and only make up 10 percent of the population. Interestingly, at one point some of our left handed ancestors were forced to become right handers in fear that doing things with your left hand was evil... good grief!

Mid August has arrived along with the annual Perseid Meteor Showers. They officially peaked yesterday, but keep your eyes peeled for any bright flashes as tiny specks of debris from the Comet Swift-Tuttle litter the night sky.

Weather conditions remain a bit unsettled again today with as showers and storms will be possible during the PM hours. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, a few of the storms could even get a little aggressive!

Temperatures remain cooler through much of the week, but we're getting indications of another summery blip. Readings will likely warm into the mid/upper 80s as we approach the weekend with dewpoints in the sticky 60s.

Hey! The Great Minnesota Sweat-Together is only 9 days away!
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Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Few PM storms. Winds: NNW 5-10. High: 78.

TUESDAY NIGHTStorms end early, then mostly cloudy. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 59.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Cooler breeze. Winds: N 5. High: 73.

THURSDAY:More sun. Storms develop overnight. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High: 76.

FRIDAY: Growing thunder risk. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 78.

SATURDAY: Spotty shower or storm possible. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 63 High: 82.

SUNDAY: Sticky sunshine. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 64 High: 85.

MONDAY: More clouds. Chance of PM rumbles. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 68 High: 85.
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This Day in Weather History
August 13th

1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 13th

Average High: 81F (Record: 98F set in 1880)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1997)

Record Rainfall: 2.05" set in 2007
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 13th

Sunrise: 6:12am
Sunset: 8:22pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 10 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 43 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour & 27 minutes
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Moon Phase for August 13th at Midnight
3.2 Days Until Full "Sturgeon" Moon

"7:29 a.m. CDT - This moon marks when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain are most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon — because when the moon rises it looks reddish through sultry haze — or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon."

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What's in the Night Sky?

"The composite image above – from John Ashley at Glacier National Park in Montana, in 2016 – perfectly captures the feeling of standing outside as dawn is approaching, after a peak night of Perseid meteor-watching. As viewed from anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, the Perseids’ radiant point is highest at dawn, and so the meteors rain down from overhead. Unfortunately, in 2019, the moon is in the way of this shower. View the full image here. When is the peak of the Perseid meteor shower in 2019? The most meteors are most likely to fall in the predawn hours on August 13, yet under the light of a bright waxing gibbous moon. The mornings of August 11 and 12 are surely worth trying, too, especially as there will be more moon-free viewing time on these mornings … a larger window between moonset and dawn. Although the brighter Perseids will overcome the moonlight, there’s nothing like a dark sky for meteor watching. During the coming peak of the 2019 Perseid shower, the moon will be in the sky as night falls. So moonset is the key factor. Visit the Sunrise Sunset Calendars site to find out when the moon sets in your sky, remembering to check the moonrise and moonset box. In dark skies – no moon and no city lights – the Perseids have been known to usher in 50 to 60 meteors per hour, or more, at their peak. So here are the tasks before you, if you want to watch meteors in 2019. Find out the time of moonset on the morning(s) you want to watch. Find a country location, far from city lights. Plan to watch during the hours between moonset and dawn. Can’t get out of town? Then go to the darkest sky you can find near you (a beach? a park?) as late at night as you can, preferably just before dawn. Situate yourself in the shadow of a tree or building, if there are lights around. Look up, and hope for the best! Who knows … you might catch a shooting star."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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Average Tornadoes By State in August
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in August is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 5 tornadoes, which is the 4th highest behind June (15), July (11), and May (6).
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,368 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through August 9th suggests that there have been a total of 1,371 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1128. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,692 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Tuesday Weather Outlook
 
Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Sunday, which shows warmer than average temps continuing across parts of the Southern US where a number of heat advisories have been issued. Feels like temps will be well into the triple digits. 
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
A storm system will push east through the nation with scattered showers and storms, some of which will be severe with locally heavy rain. Folks in the Western US will continue to remain dry. 
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests areas of heavy rain will be found across the Gulf Coast and the Mid-Atlantic Coast with areas of heavy rain possible in the Upper Midwest as well.
 
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"This Land Is the Only Land There Is"
 
"Here are seven ways of understanding the IPCC’s newest climate warning. 1. There is no shortage of scary facts in the major new report on climate change and land, a summary of which was released today by a United Nations–led scientific panel. Chief among them: For everyone who lives on land, the planet’s dangerously warmed future is already here. Earth’s land has already warmed more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since the industrial revolution, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That’s the same amount of warming that climate activists are hoping to prevent on a global scale. This spike makes sense, scientifically: Land warms twice as fast as the planet overall. Earth as a whole has warmed by only 0.87 degrees Celsius (1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) during the same period. But this increase makes the stakes of climate change clear: When scientists discuss preventing “1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming,” they are really talking about forestalling 3 degrees Celsius—or 5.1 degrees Fahrenheit—of higher land temperatures. And land temperatures are what humanity usually cares about. Land, really, is what humanity cares about. That’s the point."
 
 

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"Which Weather Model Is Most Accurate? The Answer Might Surprise You"
 
"Using the right tool for the job is a mantra that transcends workplaces and career paths. Much like a plumber choosing the right wrench or a surgeon selecting the proper clamp, meteorologists must choose from a multitude of weather models to create a forecast. These models vary in lead time, precision, and skill and each has their place when a meteorologist produces a forecast. However, it is rare that a meteorologist would opt to utilize one model exclusively. Utilizing multiple models is a vital part of the forecast creation process. This allows for situations where a single model, forecasting a large, land-falling hurricane for example, can be discarded when the vast majority of models are forecasting a swift turn out to sea.  When talking about which model guidance to follow, most of the conversations revolve around the various American weather models  run by the National Weather Service and the European model (Euro) produced by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. While those are the most well-known, there are also weather models run by Environment Canada (the Canadian equivalent of the National Weather Service) and the Met Office in England, just to name two. Each of these weather models utilizes a set of equations to predict the atmosphere, however each model’s equations are slightly different, and this can spiral into the difference between the need to prepare evacuations and continuity of business and a quiet, late-summer’s day."
 
 

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"Climate change will mean more multiyear snow droughts in the West"
 
"If climate change continues, consecutive years with snow drought conditions will become much more common. As an environmental scientist, I’ve done plenty of hiking in the western U.S. — always with a map, water bottle and list of water sources. In dry areas it’s always smart to ration water until you get to a new source. Sometimes a stream has dried up for the season, or a pond is too scummy to drink from, so your supply has to stretch further than planned. On one memorable hike, I found that a water source was dry. The next one, three miles later, was dry too. And the one after that had a dead bear carcass in it. While one dry water source was tolerable, several in a row created a serious problem. Something similar is happening to snow resources in the western United States. Scientists have long known that the warming temperatures associated with climate change are diminishing the region’ssnowpack, with more precipitation falling as rain, rather than snow. That’s a problem because snowpack is a critical resource, acting as a natural reservoir that stores winter precipitation. In a newly published study, my colleagues John Abatzoglou, Timothy Link, Christopher Tennant and I analyze year-to-year variations of future snowpack to see how frequently western states can expect multiple years in a row of snow drought, or very low snow. We find that if climate change continues relatively unabated, consecutive years with snow drought conditions will become much more common, with impacts on cities, agriculture, forests, wildlife and winter sports."
 
 

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"Traveling in Hurricane Season: Is it Worth the Risk?"
 
"There are bargains aplenty in hurricane-prone areas, but make sure you have your bases covered in case of a storm. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean — and that includes the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and destinations in the Bahamas and Florida — runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Hurricanes can strike at any time, but peak season runs August through October, when the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration says 96 percent of major hurricanes have struck. (The NOAA recently updated its research on upcoming hurricane activity, and now says it is expecting the rest of this season to be more active than normal.) That period, and extending through November, is also when resorts in the Caribbean, especially, offer rock-bottom rates, enticing budget travelers to risk a storm. For example, Calabash Cove Resort and Spa in St. Lucia currently has an all-inclusive deal for two people for five nights at $1,572 through Dec. 23 versus $3,485 in high season. Atlantis, Paradise Island in the Bahamas has rates from $189, or 30 percent off high-season prices this fall, including a $100 resort credit. The all-inclusive Hilton Rose Hall Resort & Spa in Jamaica is offering rooms in September from $213, a 45 percent discount."
 
 

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"Seas Are Rising. It Rains More. How Much Of That Is Making Hurricanes Worse?"
 
"As the planet heats up, polar ice melts, seas rise and Biblical-size rains become more frequent, hurricanes are expected to get wetter and more intense. But less certain is how much climate change is making these fierce storms, which target Florida more than any other U.S. state, more punishing now. That uncertainty comes from the complex set of variables that drive hurricanes, the rarity and short record for the storms and the modeling that researchers rely on to tease out changes linked to climate change, scientists say. Some studies have suggested storms are slowing down, becoming more intense and dumping more rain. A higher number of intense storms may already be striking further north as oceans warm. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a July report from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory that most signals don't yet fall out of the normal range. "They’re rare events, so when you have rare events uncertainty is hard to characterize," said Frank Marks, chief of NOAA's hurricane research division and lead investigator for its forecast improvement project. "This is what we expect, we just haven’t seen much yet to say, 'Yep that’s right."
 
 
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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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