Sunday Morning Storms

Sunday started off on a fairly noisy note. Scattered showers and storms pushed through metro during the morning hours, here is the radar loop showing the unsettled weather. It appears that late Sunday afternoon/evening could feature more thunder, some of which could be a little more vigorous.

Sunday Severe Threat?

The storm system responsible for our mild temperature outlook over the weekend will also be responsible for some scattered shower and storm development. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal risk of severe weather across parts of southern MN for Sunday. While it doesn't look like a major severe weather outbreak, a few storms could be a little more vigorous later Sunday afternoon/evening... Stay tuned.

 ...NERN KS THROUGH ERN NEB AND WRN IA... NARROW ZONE OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH MID 50S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A MINOR LEAD IMPULSE...SOME DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH SOME LEFT SPLITS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HAVE INCLUDED AN ENHANCED WHERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES TOWARD MID-EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. 

Radar Outlook for 7pm Sunday

Here's what the simulated radar picture looks like by 8pm Sunday. While this view is not 100% accurate of what will happen then, it's important to watch weather trends as we head into the end of the weekend in case a few strong to severe storms do decide to pop.

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Somewhat Soggy Sunday - Scatter PM Thunder
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I'm beat. I wore myself out yesterday trying to pack in as much outdoor stuff as I could. Maybe Mother Nature is telling me to take it easy today. Cloudier skies and increased rain chances may be ideal napping weather. I see some Zzzs in my future.

Weather maps look active over the next several days. A series of Pacific storms will make the end of April a little more interesting for us. The first storm system will be with us through early next week. However, scattered showers and a few strong rumbles will flirt with southern Minnesota later today.

The next, more impressive storm system moves in by the middle part of next week. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Tuesday and Wednesday as potential severe weather outbreak days in the Central U.S. for several days now. It appears that Tuesday will feature the strongest of storms.

Extended rainfall forecasts are suggesting heavier moisture for us through the end of next week. This is good news! May flowers and recently fertilized lawns will be delighted.

Nap time...
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Breezy. Scattered showers and storms. Winds: ESE 10-15. High: 68.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers, a few rumbles of thunder. Winds: NE 10-15. Low: 47.

MONDAY: Cloudy and wet, rumble of thunder. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 53.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cool, a few spits. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 39. High: 56.

WEDNESDAY: Windy with cool rain showers. Winds:  10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 52.

THURSDAY: Lingering clouds, few showers. Winds: ENE 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 54

FRIDAY: More sun, feels better. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 40. High: 60.

SATURDAY: Breezy. Clouds thicken with PM rain. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 43. High: 61.
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This Day in Weather History
April 24th

1854: It feels like summertime at Ft. Snelling with temperatures in the 80s..
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 24th

Average High: 62F (Record: 84F set in 1962)
Average Low: 41F (Record: 24F set in 1875)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 24th

Sunrise: 6:12am
Sunset: 8:10pm

*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~2mins & 52secs
*Daylight gained since winter solstice: ~5hours & 12mins

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Moon Phase for April 24th at Midnight
3.1 Days After Full (Pink) Moon


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Sunday Weather Outlook

Highs on Sunday will be quite divided across the state as a storm system moves into the region. The sharp temperature contrast across the Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin will be due to a warm front draped across the area. Temperatures north of this warm front will generally be in the 40s, but highs south of the front will warm into the 70s!

Sunday Weather Outlook

Note the overall counter-clockwise flow across the region. The winds will be circulating around a developing area of low pressure that will move through the region through early next week. Winds and times may be gusty as the storm system slides through.

Sunday Weather Outlook

Weather conditions look fairly wet along and north of the warm front. Note the darker green color showing up from North Dakota through central/northern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. This is where a steadier/colder rain will be found with heavier rainfall tallies through Monday.

Simulated Radar

Here's the simulated radar from AM Sunday to midday Tuesday. After a very nice Saturday, Sunday will feature widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be a little strong PM Sunday. Clouds and showers will linger into early next week with showers finally tapering by PM Monday or AM Tuesday.

Precipitation Outlook

Here's the precipitation outlook through 7pm Tuesday, which suggests some steadier 1"+ tallies across parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some of this rain will be associated with thunderstorm activity, especially Sunday. Interestingly, we're also getting indications that some of this moisture could be in a light wintry fashion across parts of the northern Minnesota by Monday.


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Extended Outlook

The extended forecast through the end of April/early May shows warmer temperatures this weekend before we see a bit of a dip next week. Highs next week look to be in the 50s, perhaps even into the 40s across northern Minnesota. Interestingly, we're getting indications that some of the moisture that falls next week could fall in a wintry mixed fashion.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a decent chance of cooler than average temperatures across the Midwest by end of the month/start of May.

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National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through the early Tuesday shows the current storm system sliding through the Midwest with a fairly substantial amounts of liquid. Note that some of the moisture will be related to convective feedback (thunderstorms), but also note that there appears to be a bit of a wintry mix showing up Monday night across parts of northern Minnesota! It appears that weather conditions stay fairly active into next week with another storm system arriving by the middle and end of next week.

Severe Threat Sunday

 ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF WESTERN THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM WRN TX AND EXTEND NWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. 

5 Day Precipitation

Weather conditions look quite active now as we head through the rest of April. A series of Pacific storms will roll through the country and intensity across the Central U.S.. Scattered showers and storms (some severe) will result in heavier precipitation potential, mainly across the northern tier of the nation. There will also be areas of snow, some of which could accumulate to shovelabe amounts, mainly in the higher elevation in the Western U.S.

Snowfall Potential?

Here's the snowfall potential through the end of April according to the GFS model. Note that most of the accumulations will be found across the higher elevations in the Western U.S., however, note that it is showing some minor slushy stuff from parts of the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes. While it doesn't appear to be much, it would indicate that temperatures would be chilly down to below average levels for this to occur. So next week looks a little chiller than we've seen in recent days.


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Upcoming Severe Weather Concerns Next Week

 ...DISCUSSION... CONCERN FOR A MORE ACTIVE SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 4/TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO NORTHEAST TX REGION ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY.
 Severe Threat Tuesday, April 26th
 ...SUMMARY... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
  

Severe Threat Wednesday, April 27th

 ...DAY 4/WEDNESDAY... A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO AR AND NORTHEAST TX ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ACROSS MO/IL WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE PRISTINE WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE SUBTLE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH RESIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO NORTHEAST TX WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE MODE IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE RATHER MESSY...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MOST LIKELY.
 

Severe Threat Friday - April 29th

 ...DAY 5/THU - DAY 6/FRI... MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ON DAY 5/THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WEAKENS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RICH GULF MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN STREAM NORTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...A DYNAMIC...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS ON DAY 6/FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ATOP AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING...IT APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

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GOES Project Science

Want to take a look at some amazing satellite imagery? Here's a great link from NOAA's GOES Project Science that has all the latest satellite images/loops... great bookmark!

GOES Project Science


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Paris Agreement Offers New Climate Covenant with Future

"NEW YORK—U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon this morning declared the signing today of the Paris Agreement on climate change “a new covenant with the future.” Addressing a crowded assembly at U.N. headquarters, Ban said leaders from a record 171 nations have gathered to officially sign onto the landmark deal. It is, he said, the largest number of countries to ever sign onto an international agreement on a single day. Secretary of State John Kerry will address the gathering shortly, as well as French President François Hollande and leaders from China, India and dozens of other nations. “We are breaking records in this chamber. But records have also been broken outside,” Ban said. “Record global temperatures, record ice loss, record carbon levels in the atmosphere. We are in a race against time. I urge all countries to move quickly to join the agreement at the national level so the Paris Agreement can enter into force as early as possible.” Environmental groups quickly heaped praise on the festivities but said the ceremony is the start of what will be decades of hard work."

Read more from ScientificAmerican.com HERE:

(Image Credit: Presidencia de la República Mexicana/Flickr, CC BY 2.0 via ScientificAmerican.com)

The Key Players in Climate Change

Diplomats from at least 167 countries are gathering in New York to sign the climate accord reached in December in Paris. Whether they make good on their pledges to slow dangerous greenhouse gas emissions will depend in large part on the actions in the years ahead by the world’s largest polluters. A status report on the key players follows.

Read more from NYTimes.com HERE:

(Image Courtesy: Spencer Platt/Getty Images via NYTIMES.com)

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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week and weekend ahead!
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