Update on Patricia: AM Saturday

As quickly as Patricia developed into a monster category 5 hurricane, it was even quicker to fall apart as it moved intt central Mexico. The satellite loop below shows Patricia significantly weakening into Tropical Storm strength by early AM Saturday. 

Tracking Patricia

This was the forecast track for Patricia early Saturday as it continued to quickly move northeast. Note the white dots prior to landfall with Mexico just west of Manzanillo, this indicates category 5 strength. At its peak, Patricia had sustained winds of 200mph and a central pressure of 879mb, making it the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific!

Hurricane Patricia: Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded in the Eastern Pacific

On Friday, Hurricane Patricia become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific with sustained winds of 200mph and a central pressure of 879mph! According to NOAA's NHC: At 6:15pm CDT, Hurricane Patricia made landfall near Cuixmala, Mexico, about 55 miles west of Manzanillo with estimated winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 920mb. Making Patricia the strongest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall on Mexico's west coast! Interestingly, this was also the first category 5 hurricane to make landfall with North American since Dean in 2007!

"When NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over Patricia on October 23 at 5:20 a.m. EDT the VIIRS instrument that flies aboard Suomi NPP looked at the storm in infrared light. Cloud top temperatures of thunderstorms around the eyewall were between 180K (-135.7F/ -93.1C) and 190 Kelvin (-117.7F/ -83.1C)."
Credits: UW/CIMSS/William Straka III

Patricia From Space

Thanks to @StationCDRKelly for the picture below. Scott Kelly is an astronaut aboard the ISS and this is the picture he tweeted on Friday.

Category 5 Hurricane Patricia Just Before Landfall PM Friday

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Patricia was a category 5 storm with sustained winds of 190mph prior to landfall with the Mexican Coast Friday evening.

Winds Surrounding Patricia Prior to Landfall

Here's an interesting look at the wind field surrounding Patricia just prior to landfall. Interestingly, NOAA stated that category 5 winds were occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. However, significant winds across a much wider area continued.

Last Update Prior to Landfall on Friday Evening

The last update from the National Hurricane Center at 5pm EST was category 5 storm with sustained winds around 190mph and a central pressure at 900mph. Patricia was estimated to have sustained winds of 165mph at landfall making it the strongest hurricane on record to ever hit the west coast!

More Stats on Patricia

As of early Friday, Hurricane Patricia was the strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific with sustained winds of 200mph and a central pressure of 879mb! Interestingly, Hurricane Patricia becomes the strongest tropical cyclone in the world (in terms of wind speeds officially recorded). "The previous record-holder for the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded anywhere on Earth—by wind speed—was Super Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines with satellite-estimated, one-minute sustained winds of 195 MPH." 

Other incredible stats:

- Patricia went from Tropical Storm status to becoming the strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific in 30 hours with a sustained winds of 200mph and a central pressure of 880mph
- The central pressure of Patricia dropped 100mb in 24 hours!
- The central pressure of Patricia dropped 73mb in 12 hours!


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Historic Hurricane Patricia,
Fueled by El Nino?
By Paul Douglas

Tornadoes are terrifying, but come and go in the blink of an eye. Not to minimize the impact of floods, blizzards and a steady treadmill of natural disasters, there is nothing on Earth to compare to a Category 5 hurricane. "Patricia" was the strongest hurricane ever observed in the eastern Pacific, possibly the strongest hurricane ever tracked on the planet's surface, with sustained winds over 200 mph - roughly equivalent to a 40 mile wide EF-5 tornado, only one that lingered 3-6 hours. Incomprehensible.

A plume of tropical moisture from Patricia will fuel extreme flooding from Texas to Louisiana. There's a good chance additional warming of the Pacific from El Nino fueled this super-storm. I've never seen a storm strengthen so rapidly in such a short period of time.

Skies clear today; only a glancing blow of chilly air later this week. For the next 1-2 weeks prevailing winds aloft will blow from the Pacific, not the Yukon. The GFS hints at a day or 2 above 60F the first week of November.

Minnesota's weather is an afterthought - as Mexico grapples with a true catastrophe.
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FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few lingering showers possible. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 48.

SATURDAY: Damp start, then clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 58

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, quiet and chilly! Winds: WNW 5. Low: 40

SUNDAY: Dry start, isolated PM shower risk. Winds: SSW 5-10. High: 57

MONDAY: Cool, bright sun. Wake-up: 38. High: 55

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, milder. Wake-up: 43. High: 61

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showery rains. Wake-up: 45. High: 53

THURSDAY: Slow clearing and cool. Wake-up: 46. High: 52.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds, showers develop late. Wake-up: 32. High: 48.
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This Day in Weather History
October 24th

1922: Storm over Minnesota brings 55 mph winds at Collegeville.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 24th

Average High: 54F (Record: 80F set in 1989)
Average Low: 37F (Record: 15F set in 1887)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 24th

Sunrise: 7:40am
Sunset: 6:14pm

*Daylight lost since yesterday: ~2 minutes and 56 seconds
*Daylight lost since summer solstice (June 21st): ~5 hours and 3 minutes
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Moon Phase for October 24th at Midnight
2.2 Days until Full Hunter's Moon


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Through the first 22 days of October, temperatures are running nearly 3F degrees above average. Looking at the extended forecast, reading should be a little closer to average through much of the rest of the month.  


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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average into early November.


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Saturday Weather Outlook

Cooler temps continue on Saturday with highs in the 50s across much of the state. It'll be damp to start, but drier weather and sunshine will move in later in the day.

Saturday Weather Outlook

Winds will pick up a bit out of the WNW post storm system Saturday, making it feel a little cooler than the actual air temperature would suggest. Keep in mind the strongest winds will begin shifting east as the storm system moves east through the day.

Saturday Weather Outlook

Soggy weather conditions will be in place early Saturday, but a slow clearing trend will take us into the afternoon/evening hours with some sun and clear skies.


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Minnesota Rainfall Potential

Rainfall will continue to taper AM Saturday. Any additional light amounts will be found across NE Minnesota and Wisconsin. Weather conditions will improve through the rest of the day with more sunshine by the afternoon hours.


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National Weather Outlook

The middle part of the country will be pretty active over the next few days, especially in the Deep South, where remnants of Hurricane Patricia will begin to move in. The remnants of Patricia will be responsible for additional heavy rain this weekend across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley! Also note the mixed precipitation starting to show up across the northern tier of the nation and across the Central Rockies.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests additional heavy rain across the Gulf Coast States with as much as 6" to 10"+ possible through the middle part of next week. Some of this remnant moisture from Patricia could even make it up into parts of the Ohio Valley with some fairly decent rainfall tallies across parts of Kentucky by the middle part of the week.

Heavy Texas Rain

Here's the radar estimated rainfall over a 3 day period from AM Tuesday to AM Friday. Note how widespread the 2"+ rainfall amounts have been with a few spots seeing nearly 5" to 6" or more!

Flash Flood Concerns

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND LINE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE HIGHER AMOUNTS AREAWIDE. * THE RAINFALL RATES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH WILL EASILY LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONCENTRATE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST BUT THE THREAT OF RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING COULD LINGER.

Additional Rainfall in Texas

According to NOAA's WPC, the rainfall potential across parts of Texas and Louisiana suggests nearly 6" to 10"+ as the remnants of Hurricane Patricia move in over the weekend/early next week.

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Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Patricia pushing toward Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta

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