First Month of Meteorological Summer Behind Us
 
Sunday is the first day of July and marks the 2nd month of meteorological summer. With the summer solstice behind us, daylight hours are dwindling, but daylight hours are still plentiful as the Twins Cities is still boating 15 hours and 33 minutes of daylight. Enjoy!!
 
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Weather Outlook
 
Widely scattered showers and storms from late last week and into the weekend will finally get a kick east through the day Sunday. Drier weather returns Monday, but somewhat unsettled weather returns as we approach the 4th of July on Wednesday. Stay tuned...
 
 
Rainfall Potential
 
Here's the rainfall potential through PM Tuesday, which suggests areas of heavy rain falling across far southern MN. Some spots could see up to 1" , including the Twin Cities. Most of this rain will fall from late Saturday into early Sunday as the front slowly moves through the region.
 
 
Severe Threats Ahead
 
According to NOAA's SPC, the severe threat on Sunday will be well east of Minnesota as the front slides east. However, the far northwestern corner of the state will be under a MARGINAL risk of severe storms as our next system approaches. On Monday, there will be a bigger MARGINAL risk area across far western Minnesota.
 


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 Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended forecast into the middle part of July shows hot weather continuing with highs warming into upper 80s and lower 90s. The GEFS model (top picture) seems to be a little warmer than the ECMWF (bottom picture), but they both show above average temperatures as we head into July.

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 How Hot Was it Friday?
 
Thanks to the NWS Twins Cities for the graphic and information below. Here's a map how the highest heat index values from Friday. Note that much of the southern half of Minnesota and into Wisconsin saw triple digit heat index values, while the Twin Cities felt like 109F !! Uffda that's hot!
 
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Tropical Depression Emilia in the Eastern Pacific

As of the last week of June, the National Hurricane Center was tracking the 5th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season! As of Saturday, Emilia was a Tropical Depression and drifting west away from any major land mass. Tropical Depression #7 also formed over the weekend and could become Hurricane Fabio by Monday.

 
Activity in the Atlantic? 

According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin looks pretty quiet. At this point, there are no new tropical cycolnes expected during the next 5 days.

 Tropical Climatology (July 1st - 10th)
 
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in early July. Note that in the Atlantic, the points of origin correlate well with where the named storms have been developing in the Eastern Pacific. Also note that points of origin start showing up in the Central Atlantic in early July, but really heat up in August and September.
 
 
Average Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season
 
According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!
 

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2018 Lightning Fatalities - SIX

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 6 people have died from lightning; 3 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and now 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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2018 Tornadoes So Far...

According to NOAA's SPC, there have been ONLY 571 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (through June 27th), which is quite a bit less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average. 

Average Tornadoes in July By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of July by state. Minnesota sees the most with 11, but interestingly, Minnesota see averages 15 tornadoes during the month of June, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes in August, so we are still in our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.

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3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Jul 2-Jul 4.
2.) Excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Appalachians, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Jul 2-Jul 3.
3.) Excessive heat across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, and localized parts of the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Mon, Jul 2.
4.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Jul 4-Jul 6.
5.) Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
6.) Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Severe Drought across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley, Great Plains, and western U.S.
7.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southwest, southern California, and the Central Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
8.) Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Desert Southwest, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-13.
9.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat-Mon, Jul 7-Jul 9.
10.) Slight risk of episodes of excessive heat for portions of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS and Northern and Central Great Plains, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.
11.) Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sat, Jul 7.
12.) Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, and the Central and Southern Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 7-Jul 13.

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Temperature Anomaly on Saturday 

The temperature anomaly across North America on Saturday showed well average temperatures across much of the Eastern US and into eastern Canada, while cooler than average temps were found across the the western half of Canada.

Temperature Trend

Here's the temperature anomaly as we head into the first week of July. Note that parts of the western part country look to start off a little cooler than average, but heat looks to make a return as we head through the week. 

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Weather Outlook Ahead

The weather loop below shows fairly active weather continuing across the Central US with strong to severe thunderstorms Great Lakes on Sunday and areas of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast. 

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain continuing across parts of the Central US. Several inches of rain can't be ruled out along with localized flooding, especially across the Upper Midwest and across the Gulf Coast Region.


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US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 26th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Heavy rains in June across the coastal bend of Texas helped with some of the drought there, but unfortunately it led to significant flooding.

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No, I don't Have Eagles On My Mind. Why?
By Paul Douglas

I was hoping for a peaceful, easy feeling at last night's Eagles/Jimmy Buffet concert. "Paul, what time will it rain at Target Field? Please be specific." Checking a Doppler app I felt a little like a meteorological desperado. "One of these nights, you're going to get the forecast right" my wife sighed, avoiding my lyin' eyes.

I checked the weather models, trying to take it to the limit to avoid a weather-related heartache tonight. But the squall line was already gone.

Just once I wish I could take it easy during an outdoor event. I'll bet there's never bad weather in Margaritaville.

A wave of low pressure rippling along a slightly-cooler-front squeezes out up to an inch of rain Sunday morning, but skies slowly clear by afternoon. Evening activities should be OK.

Most of Monday and Tuesday look dry, but a few atmospheric firecrackers may ignite Wednesday. Daytime highs flirt with 90F much of this week. Not as 'breath-taking' as Friday's 99F, but a tropical start to July.

I can't tell you why it likes to rain on weekends. There's a new kid in town now. Maybe he'll know.
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: AM storms, PM clearing. Winds: NW  8-13. High: 79.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: 66

MONDAY: Partly sunny and sticky. Winds: S 8-13. High: 87.

TUESDAY: Warm sunshine. Lake-worthy. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High: 91.

WEDNESDAY: Steamy. Few garden variety t-storms. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 73. High: 92.

THURSDAY:Partly sunny. Drier breezy north. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 71. High: 90.

FRIDAY: Blue sky. Very few complaints. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 87.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sun. Humidity creeps up. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 90.
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This Day in Weather History
July 1st

1964: Tyler picks up over 6 inches of rain in 24 hours.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 1st

Average High: 83F (Record: 100F set in 1883)
Average Low: 46F (Record: 46F set in 1995)

Record Rainfall: 2.85" set in 1997
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 1st

Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 9:03pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 33 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~43 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 4 Minute
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Moon Phase for July 1st at Midnight
4 Days Before First Quarter

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 Temp Outlook For Sunday

Sunday will be a fairly mild and somewhat sticky day with highs in the low/mid 80s and dewpoints hovering in the lower 60s. The good news is that it won't feel quite as bad as it was on Friday or Saturday.

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, July 7th - 13th will be warmer than average across much of the nation.

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"Earth Has Many More Rivers and Streams Than We Thought, New Satellite Study Finds"

"Rivers and streams cover much more of the planet than geologists previously estimated, according to a new study published in Science. In total, this new estimate shows that, excluding land with glaciers, Earth is covered by just under 300,000 square miles (773,000 square kilometers) of rivers and streams. That’s more square footage than the state of Texas, and it’s as much as 44 percent higher than previous counts. The finding has implications for the study of climate change, because rivers exchange greenhouse gasses with the atmosphere, especially when humans pollute their waters. “It was assumed until about 2006 that rivers and lakes were just a pipe transporting carbon to the ocean,” John Downing, a limnologist and biogeochemist at the University of Minnesota Duluth, told Gizmodo. “But the rivers are leaking gasses into the atmosphere.”"

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

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"The Most Beautiful Sunsets In The World"

"There's something about a beautiful sunset that makes the travel experience complete, the perfect end to a perfect day in paradise. Psychologists say that a sunset can boost well-being, increase generosity and enhance life satisfaction. According to data recently gathered by SpaSeekers, a whopping 286 million images of sunsets were uploaded to Instagram over the last year. The website also analyzed Instagram data from the last 12 months to rank the locations of the 10 most Instagrammed sunsets in the world. Coming in at the top of the list was California, with a staggering 5.7 million sunset photos, followed by the heavenly Italian island of Sicily. We've got the full list of the world's top sunset locations, below."

See more from Forbes HERE:

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"Astronomers see mystery explosion 200 million light-years away"

"Space might seem unchanging as you stand on Earth looking up at the inky blackness, but it isn’t, always. Indeed, the stillness can be punctuated at times by immense explosions, such as when stars go supernova in brilliant bursts of light. Supernovae are common, relatively speaking. But now scientists have observed a new type of explosion in space, and so far they don’t have an explanation for it. A science team reported the explosion on June 17, 2018, in The Astronomer’s Telegram, which is an internet-based publication service for disseminating new astronomical information quickly. The discovery team then discussed the explosion in a June 22 article in the popular weekly science magazine New Scientist. They said they saw the immense flash coming to us from another galaxy, 200 million light-years away. And, they said, this flash must have been 10 to 100 times brighter than a typical supernova. The mysterious flash has been nicknamed The Cow by astronomers since it was listed as AT2018cow in a database, thanks to the randomized three-letter naming system. The asteroid-tracking ATLAS telescopes at Keck Observatory in Hawaii were the first to see the mystery explosion. At first, astronomers thought it originated in our own galaxy. They thought it might be what’s called a cataclysmic variable star, typically two stars orbiting one another and interacting in a way that increases the whole system’s brightness irregularly. But subsequent spectroscopic observations showed the explosion came from another galaxy – labeled CGCG 137-068 – located some 200 million light-years away in the direction of the constellation Hercules."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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"A Coder and a YouTuber Provide DIY Power for Puerto Rico"

"Before the hurricane came, I was a software engineer. I'd graduated with a bachelor's degree in graphic design and animation, but here in Puerto Rico there weren't many jobs in that field, so I taught myself how to code. When I began, I didn't even know how to make "hello world" appear. After a while, I was building full-blown apps. In May 2017, I had to quit my job—my employer stopped paying us, which left me little choice. I then started working full-time on my DIY project: a full-body 3D scanner. I built the scanner myself, and to this day it's probably the only one in Puerto Rico, or even Latin America. Then the 2017 hurricane season hit. My house was knocked off the grid for a week. I didn't even notice it at first because my house partly ran on solar power. After Hurricane Maria, though, I knew I had to push harder to keep the lights on. I started looking up information online and buying gear from Amazon. I researched how to build batteries and store energy—I even found examples from the Philippines and Africa. While I was putting things together, all around me people were suffering, and I was trying to teach them about solar energy. There are still tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans without power. Many of them are poor, often elderly, and they live in remote communities. Some have to choose between paying for power and paying for water."

See more from Sierra Club HERE:

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"Why Hurricanes Almost Never Form Near Or Cross The Equator"

"While the Atlantic basin remains quiet, the eastern Pacific basin is already up to the the "E" storm, Emilia, and another potentially developing storm right on its heels. As I poked around this morning looking at the latest models and satellite imagery, I decided that it was time to dedicate my Forbes space to another meteorological "101"  session. This time I want to address a question that I often receive as an atmospheric sciences professor and meteorologist. Why don't hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones form near the equator? The graphic above clearly reveals that hurricanes (Atlantic basin, E. Pacific), typhoons (W. Pacific), and cyclones (Indian Ocean, Australia) rarely if ever form between 5 deg North and 5 deg South latitudes, respectively. The prerequisite conditions for hurricanes are: warm, deep ocean waters (greater than 80°F / 27°C), an atmosphere cooling rapidly with altitude, moist middle layers of the atmosphere, low wind shear, and a pre-existing near surface disturbance. Even if these conditions are in place, a tropical cyclone is not likely to form if it is not at least 300 or so miles from the equator."

See more from Forbes HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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