Snow Chances This Week

An area of low pressure moving across northern Minnesota Sunday Night will help bring some snow to end the weekend, mainly across northern portions of the state. Across portions of the Arrowhead, snowfall tallies of 1-3" will be possible, leading to slick roads for the Monday morning commute.

Another system will move across the region as we go into Tuesday night and early Wednesday, this time bringing a stripe of snow across portions of central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. An early look at potential snow totals shows 1-2" of snow will be possible for areas like St. Cloud, the Twin Cities, and Rochester. I would already expect a slower morning commute Wednesday at this point.

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Highs Below Freezing Later This Week

Well, we are certainly going to know that we aren't in summer anymore later this week. Behind the snow chances, it looks like we will get some pretty chilly air filter into the state as we head toward Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, highs will be around freezing in the Twin Cities, sticking in the 20s up north. But by Thursday, highs will not make it out of the 20s statewide, values more typical of December vs. early November. This would be the first time with a high at/below freezing in the Twin Cities since March 11th.

Using the entire Twin Cities climatological record, our average first day with a high that is at or below freezing is typically around November 12th. Last year the first high of 32F or below was on November 8th.

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Early Look At Deer Opener Saturday

We are quickly approaching the Minnesota Deer Opener this Saturday. Right now temperatures will start off the morning in the teens and 20s as the hunters head out to their deer stands, with highs warming to near 30F in far northern Minnesota and near 40F in far southern portions of the state. We are watching the potential for some snow during the day, mainly in northern Minnesota, with a better chance statewide as we go into next Sunday. According to the Minnesota DNR, "The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 9 is approximately 25%."

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Extremely Variable Weather - Snowy Coating?
By Paul Douglas

Growing up I distinctly remember a local weatherman predicting "changeable skies". Which could mean almost anything, right? According to NOAA, on this date in 1727 the first outdoor celebration at the chapel of Fort Beauharnois on Lake Pepin was postponed due to the "variableness of the weather." No kidding.

MSP has experienced a 170F swing in temperature in 2019; from a lowest wind chill of -55.2F to a hottest heat index of 114.9F. Major league weather swings that would make a Floridian tear up.

After a decent Sunday, a clipper's cold exhaust whips up flurries today. Models consistently bring a wetter, beefier Alberta Clipper into town Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A quick inch or 2 of snow may fall, and rush hour on Wednesday may be slushy and slick.

The latter half of this week will feel like early December, with highs in the 20s and a windchill dipping into the oh-zone.

We may thaw into the 40s on Saturday, but no sign of a respectable Indian Summer just yet. Just (very) variable weather.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Cold breeze, few flakes. Wake up 32. High 40. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
TUESDAY: Inch or two of snow possible Tuesday night. Wake up 25. High 36. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Slushy start, then partial clearing. Wake up 28. High 34. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Bright sun, chill factor in teens. Wake up 19. High 29. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Hello December. Cold sun, less wind. Wake up 16. High 28. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Glimmers of sun, probably dry. Wake up 25. High 42. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Few flurries, another Canadian slap. Wake up 27. High 32. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
November 4th

1982: 20 inches of snowfalls in the Kabatogema area.

1901: With a high temperature of only 22 and a low of 15, 175 boxcars of potatoes are in peril at the Minneapolis rail yard. Workers scrambled to move the rail cars full of tubers in roundhouses and transfer potatoes to refrigerated cars. Individual stoves had to be purchased on the spot for 59 remaining cars. Thankfully, most of the spuds were saved.

1853: A cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling. The next four days would be 16 degrees or lower.

1727: The first outdoor celebration at the chapel of Fort Beauharnois on Lake Pepin is postponed due to the 'variableness of the weather.'

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 4th

Average High: 48F (Record: 74F set in 1975)
Average Low: 32F (Record: -3 set in 1991)
Average Precipitation: 0.05" (Record: 0.61" set in 1988)
Average Snowfall: 0.1" (Record: 1.0" set in 1910)
Record Snow Depth: 23" in 1991

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 4th

Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 1 minute and 59 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 43 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Daylight? November 5th (9 hours, 59 minutes, and 17 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/After 7 AM: November 8th (7:00 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-14th (4:31 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

As we go into the first Monday of November, a few light snow showers or flurries will be possible across much of the state - especially as you head north of the Twin Cities. Otherwise cloudy skies are expected. Highs will range from the 20s in northwestern Minnesota to near 40F in southern Minnesota.

These highs on Monday will be 5-15F degrees below average. The average high in the Twin Cities for November 4th is 48F.

We will also see some strong wind gusts at times Monday with gusts above 20-25 mph possible across most of the state.

Another below-average temperature week is ahead in the Twin Cities, with Monday being the warmest day of the week. From Tuesday through Friday, highs will cool back into the 20s and 30s - 10F to 20F degrees below average.

As we look into the extended outlook, we do see a slight warm-up as we head into the Minnesota Deer Opener weekend here in the Twin Cities, but cooler air will move back in as we head into the second full week of the Monday. Some model runs of the GFS have even hinted at highs only in the teens after Veterans Day.

As for snow, the main chance of accumulating snow this week in the Twin Cities will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, again with the potential of 1-2" falling.

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National Weather Forecast

A somewhat quiet day of weather is expected across much of the country Monday. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes in the morning will push into Canada during the day, bringing rain and snow chances from Minnesota into the Great Lakes and portions of New England. A frontal system will help produce some snow from Montana into western Nebraska. A few showers and storms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula.

Mainly areas of light rain or snow will be possible through Tuesday evening across the lower 48. The heaviest rain - up to about an inch and a half - will be possible across portions of Florida. The heaviest snow will fall in some of the higher elevations of Montana and Wyoming, where tallies over a foot will be possible. Meanwhile, up to 3" of snow will be possible from Minnesota into northern Michigan.

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The California fires show how unprepared we are for climate change

More from The Verge: "Fires are a fact of life in California, but the state’s fire season has grown wilder and more destructive as the planet warms, and these fires give us a taste of what climate change will mean in human terms. Longer droughts and more unpredictable winds turn what would once have been manageable fires into region-wide catastrophes. We’re only one year removed from the largest fire in California history, and few think that record will hold much longer. The slow-moving nature of the climate crisis means that, under even the best scenarios, these fires will keep growing for the next 40 years. The longer we keep going this way, the more powerful they’ll get."

In Napa Valley, Winemakers Fight Climate Change on All Fronts

More from the New York Times: "Every wine region has had to deal with some manifestation of climate change, but few have had to deal with as many devastating consequences as Napa Valley. On Labor Day 2017, as the weekslong harvest was getting underway, the temperature reached 110 degrees here in the heart of cabernet sauvignon country. But extreme summer heat has not been the only issue. An abnormally warm January and February in 2015 set the growing season in motion early. But a cold snap in May caused many growers to lose 40 to 50 percent of their crop. Wildfires, sparked by high winds and extremely dry conditions, are threatening Northern California wine country. In October 2017, fires in Napa and Sonoma destroyed precious housing, blackening fields and threatening the quality of grapes that had not yet been harvested. The 2017 fires followed five years of extreme drought in California."

A Scary Year for Climate Change

More from Scientific American: "One year ago, the international scientific community could hardly have expected that Greta Thunberg, a teenager from Sweden, would become one of its greatest allies. Since beginning her weekly “School Strike for the Climate,” the petite 16-year-old has skillfully used her public appearances and powerful social media presence to push for bolder global action to reduce carbon emissions. “Again and again, the same message,” she tweeted recently. “Listen to the scientists, listen to the scientists. Listen to the scientists!” Well, what are the scientists saying? The answer, of course, is that they have been warning about severe global impacts from climate change for more than three decades. But over the past 12 months those warnings have intensified. Reports detailing the massive environmental, economic, and human consequences of unfettered global warming have come at a fast and furious pace. And, collectively, they are far scarier than the sum of their parts."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Clipper Coating Tonight - More South of MSP. Unusually Cold Phase Next 1-2 Weeks