Slight Severe Threat. NOAA SPC has expanded the "slight risk" of severe storms later today, extending from the U.P. of Michigan across most of Wisconsin, east central and southeastern Minnesota to Des Moines and Kansas City. The greatest potential for severe weather comes in the form of large hail and 60 mph straight-line winds.


4 PM Today. The high-res HRRR model shows a developing squall line over southeastern Minnesota by late afternoon. My sense is that the severe risk is (much) higher for Albert Lea, Rochester and Winona than the immediate Twin Cities, but the metro area my see a passing shower or T-storm closer to 2-3 PM. Stay tuned...

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Slight Severe Risk (cooling trend next 1-2 weeks; "flash droughts", a resurgent El Nino, and the power of data)

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A Canadian Break (mostly dry for the next week; cooler than average)