SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 712 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... EASTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... NORTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 708 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHASKA...OR ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLYMOUTH...AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... PLYMOUTH... MINNEAPOLIS... CHASKA... CARVER... SHAKOPEE... MARYSTOWN... COLOGNE... PRIOR LAKE... SAVAGE... WACONIA... EDEN PRAIRIE... CHANHASSEN... VICTORIA... ST BONIFACIUS... SHOREWOOD... COON RAPIDS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
56MPH WIND GUST REPORTED OUT OF GLENVILLE
TREES REPORTED DOWN IN ALBERT LEA
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How did you cope with the (fake) Blizzard of '17? Residents of the metro are rolling their eyes, but 75 miles southeast of MSP it was a full-blown blizzard with a foot of snow, ice and high winds creating treacherous travel conditions. Which is vaguely interesting, but it didn't happen in my yard, so it doesn't matter, right? I get it: all weather, like politics, is local. The sun comes out today with less wind; temperatures moderating into the low 40s early next week.
Back on Monday I predicted "a couple of inches" for today. Then some of NOAA's models began showing crazy amounts of snow, as much as 12-15" in the immediate metro, so I ratcheted up expected snowfall amounts (you can't ignore the NAM model, right?) Turns out my initial instincts were closer to the mark. Heaviest snow bands set up south of the metro with a full-blown blizzard over southern Minnesota. Yet another example where the ECMWF (European) outperforms NOAA's models. Which doesn't make me happy, btw.
Storm To Take Southerly Track - MSP Metro Advisory for Couple Inches - Blizzard Far Southern Minnesota
You just knew this was going to happen...
There's still a chance of 10 or 12" of snow in the metro, although the odds have dropped a bit as some of NOAA's models catch up with a southward shift in the ECWMF (European) guidance package. The Twin Cities are on the northern edge of plowable snow amounts with the one-foot-plus amounts south of the Minnesota River. Confidence levels are still low for a storm less than 18 hours away - models are all over the map. Literally. This is why meteorologists show up at the isobar some nights.
Yes, it was a bit...unnerving...to see a pouring rain almost the entire day on Monday. Any other February that would been 6-10" of snow. Not this winter. Our supernaturally mild signal lingers into Wednesday, and then winter takes a swipe at us on Friday - although latest guidance suggests the heaviest stripe of snow may set up south/east of MSP. How many times have you heard that over the years? Colder air follows the storm, but nothing Nanook or subzero. That said, it's a little early to stash your coat or parka into cold storage. We'll get smacked around a few times into March.