Severe Storm Watch (strong to severe metro storms by late morning)
September 19, 2013 — 9:23am
Severe Potential. NWS Doppler radar at 9:22 AM, showing a squall line approaching - with a potential for large hail, damaging straight-line winds, even an isolated tornado. Doppler is estimating 1-2" diameter hail with some of these cells.
Severe Storm Watch. Conditions will remain ripe for severe storms into the afternoon hours over southeastern MN and much of northern and western Wisconsin. A Severe Storm Watch remains in effect until 4 PM this afternoon, which includes the metro area.
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At this point the Twin Cities metro is running an 11 inch snowfall deficit, to date. And I don't see a major shift in the pattern anytime soon, at least through the end of December - no big snow events as long as prevailing jet stream winds are howling from the northwest. Temperatures run 5-10F warmer than average into Thursday of next week, then a numbing smack just in time for Christmas.
Tuesday was colder than average, but the latest in a series of clippers pulls slightly milder air into town today, a mix of very light snow or freezing drizzle possible - and a few roads may ice up. Relatively mild weather spills over into the first half of next week. And then a punch of Canadian air arrives - just in time for Christmas. Still no big storms of any flavor in sight.
Considering the Winter Solstice is now a little more than a week away, I can't say I'm surprised that we may see a true arctic slap around Christmas. Details are hazy, but both NOAA and ECMWF models hint at a precipitous drop in temperature by the end of next week. Until then a few clippers, nuisance amounts of snow, and temperatures trending above average.
A clipper will move through the state Monday, bringing 1-2" of snow with it along with colder air for Tuesday. The cold air won't last long, and we'll see a few more 30s later this week. Meanwhile, today marks seven years since the snowstorm that busted the Metrodome roof. Click for more! - D.J. Kayser
While the south and east digs out we enjoy occasional dribs and drabs of snow. An Alberta Clipper may drop a quick inch Sunday night and early Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will feel like January, but temperatures mellow by late week; ECMWF guidance hinting at 30s and 40s a week from today. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson