Severe Storm Watch Northern/Central Minnesota until 10 PM
June 20, 2014 — 3:34pm
Here We Go Again. Odds favor most of the T-storms passing north of MSP, with the best chance north of Alexandria and Little Falls, but a few stray T-storms can't be ruled as far south as the metro area. The blue-shaded area shows a Severe Storm Watch posted until 10 PM. NWS Doppler radar at 3:33 PM. Details from NOAA SPC:
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES EAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COOL FRONT CROSSING THE ND/MN BORDER REGION ATTM. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LACKING. THAT SAID...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF FOCUSED UVV...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
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Let. It. Snow. Old Man Winter will assist you in your attempt to get into the holiday spirit over the next 36 hours with a long-duration period of wet snow. Roads will be mainly wet today, but snow will start to stick on area highways by late afternoon; by tomorrow it will actually look like winter out there. About time.
Shocking: meteorologists actually have something to do, which may be an anomaly in this El Nino-warmed winter that's setting up. A surge of southern moisture will spark steady, slushy snow - resembling something we might experience in March vs. December. By the time the flakes stop flying late Tuesday much of the area will have 5-8", a few towns may boast up to 10" of heavy, wet snow. Hey, it's winter in Minnesota. It's supposed to snow!
Well this is unusual: a risk of an actual "storm"? I'm sorry, an inch of snow in late November doesn't qualify. But a slow-moving surge of moisture approaching from the south may drop enough snow to shovel and plow late Monday into midday Tuesday. It's still premature to lob around inch-amounts, but on our (patented) scale from nuisance to plowable to crippling this could definitely wind up in the plowable category. Stay tuned...
Well, we had our Thanksgiving excitement: 1.3" of slush at MSP International Airport; more south and east, less north and west. Just enough to remind us that the start of meteorological winter is a few days away. On paper. There still isn't much in the way of bitter air showing up within a few thousand miles of Minnesota; I see a mild bias continuing into mid-December, possibly longer. We'll see snow and cold fronts, just not the volume we're accustomed to.
Somewhere along the way an inch of snow became a "storm". BREAKING NEWS! When temperatures are near 32F as they will be today an inch of snow is a nuisance, most major roads stay wet with accumulation on lawns, fields, and slow-moving relatives. There probably will be some slippery roads by late afternoon and evening, especially south/east of MSP, where a couple inches may pile up. Since we've all forgotten how to drive on snow please be careful out there! Better yet, stay home, have an extra plate of food and ponder the many things we all have to be thankful for.