Slight Severe Thunderstorm Risk Western Minnesota
"The sun tires of summer and sighs itself into autumn" wrote Terri Guillemets. I'm a self-confessed September-groupie, enamored of this fleeting glimpse of atmospheric sanity wedged between heat index and first flakes.
Severe storms, floods and tornadoes are rare in September, but a few thunderstorms over far western Minnesota could mutate into severe hail-producers by evening. Tomorrow starts out wet, but skies should quickly dry out as the day goes on.
I refuse to pack away the shorts, T-shirts and flip-flops just yet, and for good reason. A surge of summer returns late in the week with sticky 80s likely on Friday and Saturday, probably the nicer day of the weekend. T-storms will troll northern, central and western counties of Minnesota Saturday, but the MSP metro area may stay on the warm, dry side of the front much of the day. Sunday looks wetter, statewide.
Hurricane Maria should stay out to sea, but Jose is forecast to brush coastal New England with 60 mph winds into Wednesday, then do one big loop and possibly hit New England a second time next week. Surreal.
84-Hour Rainfall Potential. You can clearly see the predicted tracks with Jose (brushing Cape Cod with some extreme 3-6"+ rainfall amounts) and Maria pushing past Puerto Rico. 1-2" rains are possible from the Red River Valley to coastal Oregon; dry weather prevailing from much of California into the central Plains. NAM guidance: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.
Praedictix Briefing: Issued Monday, September 18th, 2017:
*Jose is in the slow process of weakening, with sustained winds of 85 mph as of Monday morning.
*While the center of Jose is expected to stay far offshore over the next several days, it will still bring some tropical storm impacts to parts of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This would include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and some minor to moderate coastal flooding.
*We are also keeping an eye on Maria, which will impact the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through the middle of the week as a major hurricane. What impacts this system could have on the United States by early next week are still unknown.
* There is also an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across parts of the Dakotas and far western Minnesota Tuesday. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat, but hail and isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
Jose Is Weakening. While Jose remains a hurricane this morning, the system is slowly starting to weaken. As of 8 AM ET, Jose was sitting 270 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Map credit: AerisWeather.
Jose Official Track. While the center of Jose is expected to remain far offshore over the next several days - weakening in the process - impacts will still be felt along parts of the east coast. This includes tropical storm force winds (39+ mph), heightened surf and coastal flooding, as well as heavier rain. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the following locations due to the expected winds associated with this system:
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
Tropical Storm Force Winds. Tropical storm force winds will be possible along the eastern seaboard through the middle of the week as the wind field currently extends 205 miles from the center of Jose. These tropical storm force winds will be possible in the Outer Banks starting later today, spreading north into the New York City and Boston areas Tuesday.
New York City Peak Winds. Winds Tuesday into Wednesday in the New York City area could gust up to 30 mph as Jose passes off to the southeast.
Rain Potential. Areas from eastern Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts have the potential to receive up to 6" of rain from Jose, which could cause some flooding issues.
Minor To Moderate Coastal Flooding. Storm surge/coastal flooding of 1-3 feet will be possible with Jose as the system passes offshore, which could flood mainly immediate shorelines and low-lying spots.
Maria Gaining Strength. Another tropical system we are tracking - Maria - is quickly gaining strength, and is expected to be a major hurricane in the next 24 hours as the system impacts the Leeward Islands.
Maria Official Track. (Update as of late Monday night). Maria strengthened into a Category 5 super-storm last night, with a direct hit on Dominica. I'm very concerned about St. Croix and Puerto Rico as Maria potentially intensifies to extreme levels similar to those witnessed during Irma.
Impacts On United States Unknown. With this system being about a week out from approaching the U.S., it is too early to determine what impacts - if any - this system could have. Both the most recent runs of the European ECMWF (left) and American GFS (right) models show Maria making a turn before impacting the lower 48. The American model has the potential of the far east side of the system impacting the Outer Banks by next Wednesday, meanwhile the European has the remnants of Jose turning back and bringing rain to the Mid-Atlantic early next week. We will continue to track the latest on Maria to see if this system will bring any impacts by next week on facilities.
Severe Potential Tuesday In The Northern Plains. We’re also tracking an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across parts of the eastern Dakotas and far western Minnesota Tuesday. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat tomorrow afternoon and evening, but hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
Summary: While Jose will pass far offshore over the next several days, parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts will see tropical storm impacts including strong winds and a 1-3 foot storm surge at high tides. Tropical storm force gusts will be possible in areas like New York City and Boston by Tuesday. Some areas of eastern Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts could receive up to 6” of rain as well, leading to localized flooding. After Jose, we are keeping an eye on Maria, which will impact the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through the middle of the week as a major hurricane. It is still too early to determine what impacts Maria could have on the United States into next week. There is also an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Tuesday, with damaging winds the main threat.
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser, Praedictix
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Photo credit: "Sammy Fretwell/The State.
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Photo credit: "
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"...MIHM: Making insurance mandatory and putting real teeth in evasion of the mandatory requirement would be a great start because that would create what insurance is meant to create - a risk pool where everyone buys it.
SIMON: But let me interject. Wouldn't that make a lot of those homes unaffordable for the people who've been living there?
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Photo credit: SolarWindows Technologies.
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File photo credit: Wikipedia.
58 F. maximum temperature yesterday in the Twin Cities.
71 F. average high on September 18.
84 F. high temperature on September 18, 2016.
September 19, 1998: 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Meeker, Wright, Todd, and Wilkin Counties. Winds were also estimated over 50 knots / 58 miles per hour.
September 19, 1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hits St. Paul. One company has 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed.
TODAY: Mild with some sun. Strong to severe T-storms possible late. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 77
TUESDAY NIGHT: Strong T-storms, locally heavy rain. Low: 60
WEDNESDAY: Wet start, then partly sunny skies. Winds: W 7-12. High: 76
THURSDAY: Some sun, isolated T-shower risk. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 79
FRIDAY: Sticky sunshine, plenty warm. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 70. High: 86
SATURDAY: More clouds, few T-storms around. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 71. High: 83
SUNDAY: Front stalls, more showers and T-storms. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High: 78
MONDAY: Showers linger, turning cooler. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 72
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