Severe Storm Risk Lessens - Southern Minnesota Not Out of the Woods Yet
June 3, 2016 — 12:45pm
Slight Severe Storm Risk Shifts South. The Twin Cities metro is on the edge of the "slight risk", as defined by NOAA SPC. Hail and damaging winds are still possible, mainly south of I-94 and the Minnesota River, but the showers pushing through now have stabilized the atmosphere - it's unclear whether we'll see enough PM sunshine for instability capable of supporting severe cells. Low-level moisture and wind shear are marginal as well. The threat isn't over yet, especially south and west of the Twin Cities.
Future Radar. NOAA's 4 KM NAM guidance shows a few popcorn T-storm cells redeveloping across southern Minnesota later this afternoon and evening, but no evidence (yet) of an organized squall line forming. Conditions are marginal for severe activity, but it would be premature to let our guard down.
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It's going to be a long few weeks for Minnesotans living near streams and rivers, as all that snow melts - water flowing into tributaries at a rapid rate. The one saving grace: a generally dry pattern into next Friday, but there are signs of wetter storms returning the last few days of March into early April. Timing and severity of flooding is still in doubt, but there's little question there will be major flooding along many rivers in the weeks to come.
46F felt pretty good out there on Tuesday, and 50s should feel amazing by Saturday. Not quite as mild as the models were hinting at yesterday, but good enough. I'm just happy to be above zero. No significant rain events are brewing, which is an atmospheric blessing, considering the ongoing potential for major to historic flooding. Our collective fingers remain crossed.
You can't help reading the flooding headlines coming out of Nebraska and Iowa without a sense of trepidation - will it be that bad here? It's still unclear, and will depend on not only the rate of warming but how many big rain storms we experience over the next 3-4 weeks. The Red River Valley probably faces the greatest risk, but people living near the Minnesota, Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers should stay alert, have a plan, and be ready to move.
While there won't be much in the way of rain or snow to talk about during the work week, we will see a warming trend that'll bring highs into the 50s by Thursday or Friday. Click for more details! - D.J. Kayser
Temps will remain a little cooler than average through early next week, but our 50s fifties of the season are on the way later this week. No big storms are brewing either. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson