Severe Storm Risk Lessens - Southern Minnesota Not Out of the Woods Yet
June 3, 2016 — 12:45pm
Slight Severe Storm Risk Shifts South. The Twin Cities metro is on the edge of the "slight risk", as defined by NOAA SPC. Hail and damaging winds are still possible, mainly south of I-94 and the Minnesota River, but the showers pushing through now have stabilized the atmosphere - it's unclear whether we'll see enough PM sunshine for instability capable of supporting severe cells. Low-level moisture and wind shear are marginal as well. The threat isn't over yet, especially south and west of the Twin Cities.
Future Radar. NOAA's 4 KM NAM guidance shows a few popcorn T-storm cells redeveloping across southern Minnesota later this afternoon and evening, but no evidence (yet) of an organized squall line forming. Conditions are marginal for severe activity, but it would be premature to let our guard down.
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32F felt pretty good yesterday - imagine how good 40F will feel the next few days. Assuming we burn away the ice fog and low stratus layer, it could feel a little more like mid-November than mid-December into next week, as a Pacific breeze kicks in. A brown Christmas this year for much of Minnesota? It sure looks like it.
Nothing like a little December smog to get you into the holiday spirit. An inversion sparks another day of poor air quality today, but hopefully conditions improve as we sail into the weekend; a Pacific breeze boosting the mercury toward 40F. No actual storms are brewing anytime soon, and relative warmth gives way to another cold slap the weekend before Christmas, which may be brown across much of Minnesota this year. Just the messenger...
Did you notice the haze, the smog hovering overhead yesterday? Like a murky, snow-covered L.A. An inversion is trapping pollutants, and an Air Quality Alert is in effect through the evening hours. Yes, a bit strange for the second week of December. That's about as exciting as things get in the weather department through the end of next week.
Big storms track well south & east of Minnesota the next 2 weeks, with a milder, Pacific flow for the Upper Midwest. We may see a few days near 40F next week. Signs of an impending El Nino? Maybe. But it would be premature to write off winter just yet. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
There is certainly not much to complain about in the weather this week as we'll have fairly quiet conditions. Highs are expected in the 20s and 30s and there are very few chances of precipitation. Click for details! - D.J. Kayser