Severe Storm Risk Lessens - Southern Minnesota Not Out of the Woods Yet
June 3, 2016 — 12:45pm
Slight Severe Storm Risk Shifts South. The Twin Cities metro is on the edge of the "slight risk", as defined by NOAA SPC. Hail and damaging winds are still possible, mainly south of I-94 and the Minnesota River, but the showers pushing through now have stabilized the atmosphere - it's unclear whether we'll see enough PM sunshine for instability capable of supporting severe cells. Low-level moisture and wind shear are marginal as well. The threat isn't over yet, especially south and west of the Twin Cities.
Future Radar. NOAA's 4 KM NAM guidance shows a few popcorn T-storm cells redeveloping across southern Minnesota later this afternoon and evening, but no evidence (yet) of an organized squall line forming. Conditions are marginal for severe activity, but it would be premature to let our guard down.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
It was a very close call, but in the end the atmosphere over Minnesota was too cool and stable for tornadoes close to home. Just to our south, Iowa is recovering from one of the largest tornado outbreaks of the year, nationwide, with Pella and Marshalltown suffering direct hits. Details in the blog.
We've enjoyed a few spectacular days in a row, now it's time for a free lawn-watering. Not an all-day rain, but I expect frequent showers, even a few embedded thundershowers. Random pop-up showers spill into Friday but we slowly dry out over the weekend as temperatures warm into the low 80s. July ends on a cool, comfortable note. Payback for a stinking-hot first half of summer.
It will be hard to top Tuesday's weather, but today looks fairly nice - a few degrees warmer with a little more humidity in the air. A slow-moving storm arrives with more rain late tonight into Thursday, with a few showers straggling into Friday before we start to dry out over the weekend. Another cool surge arrives next week with a string of 70-degree highs; maybe 60s up north, where locals may drag out sweatshirts and light jackets. And no, we haven't seen the last of the 90s this summer...
If you're weary of the dew point and heat index I have some good news: a pattern shift will allow a parade of Canadian cool fronts to venture south - providing a welcome break from the worst of the heat for the next 2 weeks. Beyond that it's anyone's guess. The chance of an El Nino warm phase in the Pacific is increasing for late 2018 and early 2019, which (may) imply greater odds of a milder, drier winter. As always, your results may vary.
Cooler and more comfortable air is sliding in from Canada for the first half of the work week, with highs expected to be slightly below average for mid-July. You may even have the opportunity to turn off the air conditioner for a while! Click for more details. - D.J. Kayser