Grandma's Marathon Weekend - Duluth, MN
Extended Temperature Outlook
The extended forecast through the end of the month shows a pretty big warm up as we head into the weekend with highs approaching the lower/middle 90s in the Twin Cities. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Temps will fall back into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s as we approach the Summer Solstice next week.
"2017 Broke Records for Number of Flooded Days on U.S. Coasts"
"Due to the combined impacts of climate change and upcoming El Niño conditions, coastal high tide flooding in the U.S. will be up to 60 percent more frequent in 2018 than it was 20 years ago, the most recent high tide flooding report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), announced Wednesday, projected. The report, NOAA's 2017 State of High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook, also found that the 2017 meteorological year (May 2017 - April 2018) broke records for the number of high tide flooding days nationally, for an average of six days per coastal location observed. The report predicted that, going forward, 2018 and the years after would continue to break records due to sea level rise, and that the rate of increased flooding might accelerate. Overall, the average number of flooded days has already doubled in the past 30 years. Flooding is increasing most quickly along the Southeast Atlantic coast, up by 160 percent since 2000. Flood frequencies are also significantly increasing along the Northeast Atlantic coast, at 100 percent, and the Eastern and Western Gulf Coasts, at 50 percent."
Active in the Eastern Pacific
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 5 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and now 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 484 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (June 14th), which is less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average.
Average Tornadoes in June By State
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.
1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Central Plains, Sun-Thu, Jun 17-Jun 21.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Sun-Mon, Jun 17-Jun 18.
3.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
4.) Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
5.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the
Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Tue, Jun 17-Jun 19.
7.) Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Appalachians, Mon-Tue, Jun 18-Jun 19.
8.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Thu, Jun 18-Jun 21.
9.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Jun 18.
10.) Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Mon, Jun 22-Jun 25.
11.) Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Sun, Jun 22-Jun 24.
12.) High risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Sat, Jun 22-Jun 23.
13.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
Temperature Anomaly on Friday
The temperature anomaly across North America from Friday showed above average temperatures across much of the Central US, while cooler than average temps were found across in the Pacific Northwest, Western Canada and in the Northeast.
The 850mb temperature anomaly shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the Central US as we head through the first half of the week. However, cooler than average temps will still be found in Northeast, while another batch of cooler than average temps moves in along the Southwest as the remnants of Bud move into the region there.
Weather Outlook Ahead
Weather conditions over the next few days will remain fairly active across the country as hot and humid weather bubbles north into the Upper Midwest. We will see several round of strong to severe storms develop on the outer periphery of this, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts across the Upper Midwest. We will also see heavier pockets of rain develop in the Southwest as the remnants of Bud move in there.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Midwest as scattered showers and storms develop on the outer periphery of hot and humid weather there. There will also be heavier rainfall tallies across the Southwest as remnant moisture from Bud moves in there. That's great news for the drought, but heavy rain could lead to flooding. We're also getting indications of heavy rains along the Coastal Bend of Texas over the next 5 to 7 days that could lead to flooding. Stay tuned.
Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 12th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully the remnants of Bud will help to less the drought in some places there. However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!
Rounds of storms continue through the weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
I am coach for my two young boys' baseball teams and earlier this week made a call to end our game early due to lightning. Dark clouds and faint rumbles of thunder were just too close for comfort.
Did you know that lightning is one of the top weather related killers in the US? Nearly 50 people are killed each year and unfortunately, 5 people have already died this year.
NOAA reminds us that when thunder roars, go indoors. The 30-30 rule suggests that if you can see lightning and hear thunder within 30 seconds, you should seek shelter immediately. Then, wait 30 minutes after hearing the last rumble of thunder to resume any outdoor activities.
The weekend forecast looks very unsettled as multiple rounds of thunderstorms scamper across a stalled frontal boundary that will be draped across the state. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. I still think a BBQ or tee-time with Dad will be ok, but keep an eye/ear on your smart phone for any weather alerts.
Have a great weekend and stay cool.
SATURDAY: Sticky sun mixed with more storm. Winds: S 10-15. High: 90.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds: S 10. Low: 70.
SUNDAY: Another round of heavy t-storms develops. Winds: SSW 5-15. High: 89.
MONDAY: Front stalls in S. MN. More storms. Winds: NNE 5-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 77.
TUESDAY: Soggy start. Gradual PM clearing. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 78.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, dry and pleasant. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 82.
THURSDAY: Chance of showers and a few rumbles. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 81.
FRIDAY: Isolated afternoon T-shower? Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 82.
This Day in Weather History
1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties.
1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 79F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 43F set in 1961)
Record Rainfall: 2.16" set in 1935
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 36 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~22 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 49 Minutes
Moon Phase for June 16th at Midnight
3.5 Days Since New Moon
Temp Outlook For Saturday
Here's a look at highs and dewpoints across the state on Friday, which suggests very warm temperatures returning to much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Note that many across the southern half of Minnesota could see highs in the low to mid 90s. Note that with dewpoints near 70F, it will feel more like the mid/upper 90s!
According to NOAA's CPC, June 22nd - 28th will be warmer than average across much of the nation with the exception of parts of the Southwest. Also note that much of central Alaska will be cooler than average.
"Drought Battle: Israel to Use Desalinated Water to Rescue the Sea of Galilee"
"JERUSALEM, Israel – Following five consecutive years of below-average winter rainfall, Israeli cabinet ministers passed a $30 million measure to replenish the Sea of Galilee and seven northern streams severely affected by the drought. The Dead Sea and the Jordan River are also suffering from the drought. For the first time ever, desalinated water will be pumped into the Kinneret to help replenish its water level, as well as the streams in the north. The plan also includes construction of two new desalination plants, one on the coast of the Western Galilee and a second in Sorek, where the world's most advanced and largest desalination plant came on line in 2014."
"'Australia doesn’t realise’: worsening drought pushes farmers to the brink"
"In the south-west corner of NSW’s Liverpool plains, in an area called Bundella, farmer Megan Kuhn runs beef cattle and merino sheep with her husband, Martin. They have 400 breeding cows that will calve in six weeks. Shortly, 89 of those cows will leave the property, sold to an abattoir because the cost of feeding the animals during drought has become too great. “There is nowhere to send them to pasture so they are going to be slaughtered,” Kuhn says. “We’re killing a cow and a calf at this late stage of pregnancy. The drought is so widespread there’s just no options left for stock producers to put them anywhere. That’s why it’s so heartbreaking. “Australia doesn’t realise. The cattle we’ve got are rapidly diminishing because of the drought.” Further north, about 20 km from Mullaley, Margaret Fleck is seeing conditions on her property she has not encountered in the 20 years she has been there. She and her partner Paul run beef cattle, producing grass-fed beef for the domestic and export markets. December was the end of their seventh calendar year of below-average rainfall. In the 12 months to May this year, they have had just over 50% of their annual average rainfall."
"Extreme Hurricane Rainfall Expected to Increase in a Warmer World"
"Hurricane Harvey of August 2017 brought the greatest rainfall event ever recorded in the U.S. by a tropical cyclone—an astonishing 60.58” in Nederland, Texas. The resulting flood disaster was the second costliest weather-related disaster in U.S. and world history--$125 billion, according to NOAA. Naturally, this gave rise to questions about whether the rains were made worse by global warming, and how we might expect tropical cyclone rainfall to change in a warming climate. One of the more confident predictions hurricane scientists can make on the future of hurricanes in a warmer climate is that they will dump heavier rains, due to increased moisture in the atmosphere. There is a growing body of literature showing that heavy precipitation events of all kinds—including those from tropical cyclones (which include all hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions)—have already grown more common. Four papers in the past year have been published that found that human-caused global warming significantly increased the odds of the heavy rains like Hurricane Harvey brought to Texas. In this post, we take a comprehensive look at what the published peer-reviewed science says on the expected increase in heavy rains from tropical cyclones in a warmer world"
"This gel sucks humidity out of the room"
"A new gel-like material not only dehumidifies ambient air to improve comfort, but also harnesses the moisture in the air to function as a sun or privacy screen, conductive ink, and even a battery. All these properties are inherent in the material after water absorption, without a need for external power. The hydrogel is a form of zinc oxide—a compound found in sunscreen—can absorb water from the surrounding environment more than 2.5 times its weight and performs at least eight times better than commercial drying agents. Scientists say it is suitable for both indoor and outdoor applications, and is also cheap and easy to produce. “Singapore, like many tropical countries, experience high levels of relative humidity between 70 to 80 percent,” says Tan Swee Ching, assistant professor in the materials science and engineering department at the National University of Singapore Faculty of Engineering. “In a humid environment, the air is saturated with water and as a result, sweat on our body evaporates more slowly. This causes us to feel hotter than the actual ambient temperature, leading to great discomfort. Our novel hydrogel aims to achieve a cooling effect by removing moisture from ambient air very efficiently."
"Increased deaths and illnesses from inhaling airborne dust: An understudied impact of climate change"
"The Dust Bowl in the 1930s was one of the worst environmental disasters of the 20th century. Intense dust storms relentlessly pounded the southern Great Plains of the United States, wreaking severe ecological damage, forcing 2.5 million people to leave the regionand claiming unnumbered lives, mainly from “dust pneumonia.” Research has shown that this disaster was fueled by a combination of severe droughts and over-cultivated lands. Today, climate change driven by human actions is enhancing the occurrence of droughts in multiple regions around the world. As researchers working at the intersection of environmental health, air pollution and climate change, we wanted to know how increasing drought conditions and population growth in the U.S. Southwest could affect airborne dust levels and public health. In a recently published study, we estimate that if the world stays on its current greenhouse gas emissions path, rising fine dust levels could increase premature deaths by 130 percent and triple hospitalizations due to fine dust exposure in this region."
"Do You Know What Lightning Really Looks Like?"
Paintings by artists over centuries have consistently underestimated the number of root-like veins in a lightning strike, researchers found. Here are paintings that incorporate lightning made by artists at various points through history. Which do you think looks most accurate?