Hot & Humid Saturday
 
Hot and humid conditions are expected to develop again on Saturday with heat index values nearing 100F. The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for the Twin Cities and a Heat Advisory for the surrounding areas into southern Minnesota. 
 
 
ENHANCED Risk of Severe Weather Saturday
 
Latest update from NOAA's SPC shows an ENHANCED risk of severe storms across parts of central MN today. The main concern will be damage wind and large hail, but isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
 
 
Stormy Weekend Ahead For Some
 
Thanks to Aaron Weidner for the picture below who captured this stormy scene from Friday. While the storms didn't pack too much of a punch across the Twin Cities, we certainly will have our chance of strong storms and heavy rain over the weekend.
 

Grandma's Marathon Weekend - Duluth, MN
 
Duluth is a beautiful place and was fortunate enough to live there for four years when I got my first job in TV meteorologist right after college. The weather can be wild at times and when the wind is right, it is MUCH colder by the lake. While many across the state had hot and humid conditions, a cool wind off the lake made for a pretty decent run for Grandma's Marathon. The best news of all is that it stayed dry for the race!! The image below is from the Marine Museum early Saturday morning and you can see the low haze and fog hanging over the lake.  Weather conditions will turn stormy through the day and through the rest of the weekend. 
 
 Wet Weekend in the Northland
 
Here's weather story graphic from the NWS out of Duluth, MN that suggests rounds of thunderstorms impacting the region through early next week, which could bring very heavy rainfall to the area. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe this weekend and there could even be localized flooding.
 
"Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through the weekend. Strong to severe storms are possible through tonight, and again on Saturday and Sunday with damaging winds and hail the main threats. Heavy rainfall is expected through the weekend which may lead to flash flooding especially on Saturday and Sunday. Areas mainly south of highway 2 in NE MN and all of NW WI will receive the heaviest rainfall amounts with 3-5 inches expected through Monday morning. Anyone with outdoor or travel plans across the Northland should stay current with the latest weather information through the weekend and have multiple ways to receive reliable weather information!"
 
 
 Weekend Outlook
 
The forecast for the weekend looks really warm across the Upper Midwest with highs in the 90s. The Twin Cities will likely see highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoint around 70F, which will make it feel more like mid to upper 90s at times. There will also be scattered showers and storms, which at times could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain. 
 
Latest update from NOAA's SPC shows an ENHANCED risk of severe storms across parts of central MN today. The main concern will be damage wind and large hail, but isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
 
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Severe Threat Sunday
 
There is another SLIGHT risk of severe weather across southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin late in the day Sunday. Damage winds, hail and very heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns.
 
 
Weather Outlook
 
The weather outlook from AM Saturday to midday Monday suggests widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across parts of the Upper Midwest. Keep in mind that these storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain and will be developing on the northern periphery of the dome of hot and humid weather. 
 
 
Rainfall Potential - NWS
 
The rainfall potential through 7pm Monday suggests fairly heavy amounts thanks to several rounds of thunderstorms moving thru the region this weeekend. Note that several locations across central Minnesota could see several inches of rain through early next week. This heavy rain threat will depend heavily on where thunderstorms develop over the next several days.
 
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Excessive Rainfall Potential
 
According to NOAA's WPC, heavy rainfall potential will certainly be in place across parts of the nation as we head into the next few days. Note that there are heavy rainfall risks across the Upper Midwest thanks to round of strong to severe storms that will develop there. There will also be areas of heavy rain that develop around the Four-Corners region thanks to the remnants of Bud.
 
Excessive Rainfall Potential - Saturday
 
Excessive Rainfall Potential - Sunday

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Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended forecast through the end of the month shows a pretty big warm up as we head into the weekend with highs approaching the lower/middle 90s in the Twin Cities. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Temps will fall back into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s as we approach the Summer Solstice next week.

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"Antarctic ice loss has tripled in a decade. If that continues, we are in serious trouble."
 
"Antarctica’s ice sheet is melting at a rapidly increasing rate, now pouring more than 200 billion tons of ice into the ocean annually and raising sea levels a half-millimeter every year, a team of 80 scientists reported Wednesday. The melt rate has tripled in the past decade, the study concluded. If the acceleration continues, some of scientists’ worst fears about rising oceans could be realized, leaving low-lying cities and communities with less time to prepare than they had hoped. The result also reinforces that nations have a short window — perhaps no more than a decade — to cut greenhouse-gas emissions if they hope to avert some of the worst consequences of climate change. Antarctica, the planet’s largest ice sheet, lost 219 billion tons of ice annually from 2012 through 2017 — approximately triple the 73 billion-ton melt rate of a decade ago, the scientists concluded. From 1992 through 1997, Antarctica lost 49 billion tons of ice annually."
 
 

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El Nino Watch Issued By NOAA
 
El Niño watch issued as signs point to a return of the climate cycle - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niño watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for El Niño conditions to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean within the next six months. Why it matters: If an El Niño forms, it would follow one of the most intense such events on record, which teamed up with long-term climate change, to lead to the warmest year ever recorded: 2016. Depending on its exact location in the Pacific and its intensity, the climate phenomenon can reorder weather patterns around the world. On the plus side, it can contribute to increased upper atmospheric winds over the tropical Atlantic, weakening nascent hurricanes and keeping the number of storms lower than they otherwise would be."

See more from Axios HERE:

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"2017 Broke Records for Number of Flooded Days on U.S. Coasts"

"Due to the combined impacts of climate change and upcoming El Niño conditions, coastal high tide flooding in the U.S. will be up to 60 percent more frequent in 2018 than it was 20 years ago, the most recent high tide flooding report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), announced Wednesday, projected. The report, NOAA's 2017 State of High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook, also found that the 2017 meteorological year (May 2017 - April 2018) broke records for the number of high tide flooding days nationally, for an average of six days per coastal location observed. The report predicted that, going forward, 2018 and the years after would continue to break records due to sea level rise, and that the rate of increased flooding might accelerate. Overall, the average number of flooded days has already doubled in the past 30 years. Flooding is increasing most quickly along the Southeast Atlantic coast, up by 160 percent since 2000. Flood frequencies are also significantly increasing along the Northeast Atlantic coast, at 100 percent, and the Eastern and Western Gulf Coasts, at 50 percent."

See more from EcoWatch HERE:

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Active in the Eastern Pacific

As of late PM Friday Bud was a post-tropical cyclone, while a new name storm (Carlotta) developed!
 
 
Tracking Carlotta
 
The official NHC track for Carlotta shows it making landfall with southern Mexico by early Saturday with heavy rainfall.
 
 
 
Tropical Climatology (June 11th - 20th)
 
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in early June. Note that in the Atlantic, the points of origin correlate well with where Alberto developed  2 weeks ago and the points of origin correlate well with where Aletta and Bud have formed in the Eastern Pacific over the last week.
 
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2018 Lightning Fatalities - FIVE

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 5 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and now 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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2018 Tornadoes So Far...

According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 484 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (June 14th), which is less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average. 

Average Tornadoes in June By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.

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3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Central Plains, Sun-Thu, Jun 17-Jun 21.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Sun-Mon, Jun 17-Jun 18.
3.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
4.) Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
5.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the
Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Tue, Jun 17-Jun 19.
7.) Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Appalachians, Mon-Tue, Jun 18-Jun 19.
8.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Thu, Jun 18-Jun 21.
9.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Jun 18.
10.) Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Mon, Jun 22-Jun 25.
11.) Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Sun, Jun 22-Jun 24.
12.) High risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Sat, Jun 22-Jun 23.
13.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.

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Temperature Anomaly on Friday

The temperature anomaly across North America from Friday showed above average temperatures across much of the Central US, while cooler than average temps were found across in the Pacific Northwest, Western Canada and in the Northeast.

Temperature Trend

The 850mb temperature anomaly shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the Central US as we head through the first half of the week. However, cooler than average temps will still be found in Northeast, while another batch of cooler than average temps moves in along the Southwest as the remnants of Bud move into the region there.

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Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions over the next few days will remain fairly active across the country as hot and humid weather bubbles north into the Upper Midwest. We will see several round of strong to severe storms develop on the outer periphery of this, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts across the Upper Midwest. We will also see heavier pockets of rain develop in the Southwest as the remnants of Bud move in there.

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Midwest as scattered showers and storms develop on the outer periphery of hot and humid weather there. There will also be heavier rainfall tallies across the Southwest as remnant moisture from Bud moves in there. That's great news for the drought, but heavy rain could lead to flooding. We're also getting indications of heavy rains along the Coastal Bend of Texas over the next 5 to 7 days that could lead to flooding. Stay tuned.


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US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 12th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully the remnants of Bud will help to less the drought in some places there. However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!

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Rounds of storms continue through the weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I am coach for my two young boys' baseball teams and earlier this week made a call to end our game early due to lightning. Dark clouds and faint rumbles of thunder were just too close for comfort.

Did you know that lightning is one of the top weather related killers in the US? Nearly 50 people are killed each year and unfortunately, 5 people have already died this year.

NOAA reminds us that when thunder roars, go indoors. The 30-30 rule suggests that if you can see lightning and hear thunder within 30 seconds, you should seek shelter immediately. Then, wait 30 minutes after hearing the last rumble of thunder to resume any outdoor activities.

The weekend forecast looks very unsettled as multiple rounds of thunderstorms scamper across a stalled frontal boundary that will be draped across the state. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. I still think a BBQ or tee-time with Dad will be ok, but keep an eye/ear on your smart phone for any weather alerts.

Have a great weekend and stay cool.
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Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Sticky sun mixed with more storm. Winds: S 10-15. High: 90.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds: S 10. Low: 70.

SUNDAY: Another round of heavy t-storms develops. Winds: SSW  5-15. High: 89.

MONDAY: Front stalls in S. MN. More storms. Winds: NNE 5-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 77.

TUESDAY: Soggy start. Gradual PM clearing. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, dry and pleasant. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 82.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and a few rumbles. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 81.

FRIDAY: Isolated afternoon T-shower? Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 82.
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This Day in Weather History
June 16th

1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties.

1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 16th

Average High: 79F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 43F set in 1961)

Record Rainfall: 2.16" set in 1935
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 16th

Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 36 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~22 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 49 Minutes
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Moon Phase for June 16th at Midnight
3.5 Days Since New Moon

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 Temp Outlook For Saturday

Here's a look at highs and dewpoints across the state on Friday, which suggests very warm temperatures returning to much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Note that many across the southern half of Minnesota could see highs in the low to mid 90s. Note that with dewpoints near 70F, it will feel more like the mid/upper 90s!

 
Temp Outlook For Sunday
 
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, June 22nd - 28th will be warmer than average across much of the nation with the exception of parts of the Southwest. Also note that much of central Alaska will be cooler than average.

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"Drought Battle: Israel to Use Desalinated Water to Rescue the Sea of Galilee"

"JERUSALEM, Israel – Following five consecutive years of below-average winter rainfall, Israeli cabinet ministers passed a $30 million measure to replenish the Sea of Galilee and seven northern streams severely affected by the drought. The Dead Sea and the Jordan River are also suffering from the drought. For the first time ever, desalinated water will be pumped into the Kinneret to help replenish its water level, as well as the streams in the north. The plan also includes construction of two new desalination plants, one on the coast of the Western Galilee and a second in Sorek, where the world's most advanced and largest desalination plant came on line in 2014."

See more from CBN News HERE:

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"'Australia doesn’t realise’: worsening drought pushes farmers to the brink"

"In the south-west corner of NSW’s Liverpool plains, in an area called Bundella, farmer Megan Kuhn runs beef cattle and merino sheep with her husband, Martin. They have 400 breeding cows that will calve in six weeks. Shortly, 89 of those cows will leave the property, sold to an abattoir because the cost of feeding the animals during drought has become too great. “There is nowhere to send them to pasture so they are going to be slaughtered,” Kuhn says. “We’re killing a cow and a calf at this late stage of pregnancy. The drought is so widespread there’s just no options left for stock producers to put them anywhere. That’s why it’s so heartbreaking. “Australia doesn’t realise. The cattle we’ve got are rapidly diminishing because of the drought.” Further north, about 20 km from Mullaley, Margaret Fleck is seeing conditions on her property she has not encountered in the 20 years she has been there. She and her partner Paul run beef cattle, producing grass-fed beef for the domestic and export markets. December was the end of their seventh calendar year of below-average rainfall. In the 12 months to May this year, they have had just over 50% of their annual average rainfall."

See more from The Guardian HERE:

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"Extreme Hurricane Rainfall Expected to Increase in a Warmer World"

"Hurricane Harvey of August 2017 brought the greatest rainfall event ever recorded in the U.S. by a tropical cyclone—an astonishing 60.58” in Nederland, Texas. The resulting flood disaster was the second costliest weather-related disaster in U.S. and world history--$125 billion, according to NOAA. Naturally, this gave rise to questions about whether the rains were made worse by global warming, and how we might expect tropical cyclone rainfall to change in a warming climate. One of the more confident predictions hurricane scientists can make on the future of hurricanes in a warmer climate is that they will dump heavier rains, due to increased moisture in the atmosphere. There is a growing body of literature showing that heavy precipitation events of all kinds—including those from tropical cyclones (which include all hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions)—have already grown more common. Four papers in the past year have been published that found that human-caused global warming significantly increased the odds of the heavy rains like Hurricane Harvey brought to Texas. In this post, we take a comprehensive look at what the published peer-reviewed science says on the expected increase in heavy rains from tropical cyclones in a warmer world"

See more from Wunderground HERE:

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"This gel sucks humidity out of the room"

"A new gel-like material not only dehumidifies ambient air to improve comfort, but also harnesses the moisture in the air to function as a sun or privacy screen, conductive ink, and even a battery. All these properties are inherent in the material after water absorption, without a need for external power. The hydrogel is a form of zinc oxide—a compound found in sunscreen—can absorb water from the surrounding environment more than 2.5 times its weight and performs at least eight times better than commercial drying agents. Scientists say it is suitable for both indoor and outdoor applications, and is also cheap and easy to produce. “Singapore, like many tropical countries, experience high levels of relative humidity between 70 to 80 percent,” says Tan Swee Ching, assistant professor in the materials science and engineering department at the National University of Singapore Faculty of Engineering. “In a humid environment, the air is saturated with water and as a result, sweat on our body evaporates more slowly. This causes us to feel hotter than the actual ambient temperature, leading to great discomfort. Our novel hydrogel aims to achieve a cooling effect by removing moisture from ambient air very efficiently."

See more from Futurity HERE:

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"Increased deaths and illnesses from inhaling airborne dust: An understudied impact of climate change"

"The Dust Bowl in the 1930s was one of the worst environmental disasters of the 20th century. Intense dust storms relentlessly pounded the southern Great Plains of the United States, wreaking severe ecological damage, forcing 2.5 million people to leave the regionand claiming unnumbered lives, mainly from “dust pneumonia.” Research has shown that this disaster was fueled by a combination of severe droughts and over-cultivated lands. Today, climate change driven by human actions is enhancing the occurrence of droughts in multiple regions around the world. As researchers working at the intersection of environmental health, air pollution and climate change, we wanted to know how increasing drought conditions and population growth in the U.S. Southwest could affect airborne dust levels and public health. In a recently published study, we estimate that if the world stays on its current greenhouse gas emissions path, rising fine dust levels could increase premature deaths by 130 percent and triple hospitalizations due to fine dust exposure in this region."

See more from The Conservation HERE:

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"Do You Know What Lightning Really Looks Like?"

Paintings by artists over centuries have consistently underestimated the number of root-like veins in a lightning strike, researchers found. Here are paintings that incorporate lightning made by artists at various points through history. Which do you think looks most accurate?

See more from NYTimes HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Another Hot, muggy and stormy Day for Dad