Record 96F High Sunday - Growing Severe Risk Central & Northern MN
August 25, 2013 — 8:04pm
Starting To Fire. The 8 pm visible satellite loop shows strong/severe storms popping along a weak frontal boundary draped over northern MInnesota. More storms are pushing east out of the Dakotas - the chance of T-storms increases as the night goes on, the best chance of severe storms (hail and gusty winds) north/west of MSP.
Greatest Severe Storm Potential. With tropical levels of moisture, a deep layer of water vapor (nearly 2" of precipitatable water in the 12z MSP and INL soundings) conditions are ripe for not only severe storms, but flash flooding, especially north of the boundary stretching from Wadena to Brainerd to Sandstone and Spooner, WI. A watch may be issued by SPC.
Slight Severe Risk. SPC has much of central and northern MInnesota and Wisconsin in a "slight risk", spilling over into much of MOnday as well.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Back on Monday I predicted "a couple of inches" for today. Then some of NOAA's models began showing crazy amounts of snow, as much as 12-15" in the immediate metro, so I ratcheted up expected snowfall amounts (you can't ignore the NAM model, right?) Turns out my initial instincts were closer to the mark. Heaviest snow bands set up south of the metro with a full-blown blizzard over southern Minnesota. Yet another example where the ECMWF (European) outperforms NOAA's models. Which doesn't make me happy, btw.
There's still a chance of 10 or 12" of snow in the metro, although the odds have dropped a bit as some of NOAA's models catch up with a southward shift in the ECWMF (European) guidance package. The Twin Cities are on the northern edge of plowable snow amounts with the one-foot-plus amounts south of the Minnesota River. Confidence levels are still low for a storm less than 18 hours away - models are all over the map. Literally. This is why meteorologists show up at the isobar some nights.
Yes, it was a bit...unnerving...to see a pouring rain almost the entire day on Monday. Any other February that would been 6-10" of snow. Not this winter. Our supernaturally mild signal lingers into Wednesday, and then winter takes a swipe at us on Friday - although latest guidance suggests the heaviest stripe of snow may set up south/east of MSP. How many times have you heard that over the years? Colder air follows the storm, but nothing Nanook or subzero. That said, it's a little early to stash your coat or parka into cold storage. We'll get smacked around a few times into March.
Widely scattered showers and rare February thunderstorms move through on Monday. Sunshine returns Tuesday and record warmth continues through Wednesday. Big changes arrive late this week with a potential snow event. Stay tuned and check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson