What's The Weather Typically Like For The Midterm Elections In The Twin Cities?

First of all, remember to vote this upcoming Tuesday in the midterms if you haven't already voted absentee! I know I will be standing in line for my "I Voted" sticker. The Minnesota State Climatology Department has a page that looks at past weather for both the presidental and midterm elections in the Twin Cities. The warmest we have ever been on the day of the midterm was 70F back on November 6th, 1934, with the coldest high being 38F for the 1938 midterm election. We have received as much snow as 0.8" on the day of the midterm election - that was back in 2002. You can read through more stats by clicking here.

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Rain Later Today - Sloppy Election Day Mix?
By Paul Douglas

"Paul, you're quite literate for a weatherman" a kind stranger told me last week, shaking my hand a bit too aggressively. Uh, thanks? What's the old saying, 'you're never as good as people say you are, and you're never as bad, either'. Never believe your own promotion.

Meteorologists get a bad rap for attempting to predict the future, but at least we're not pollsters. Will bad weather give an edge to either party tomorrow? I don't pretend to know, but I doubt it.

A southerly fetch of moisture whips up another cold rain later today & tonight into Tuesday morning. The column of air above our heads may cool enough for a light mix by midday Tuesday, but air temperatures should be above freezing, meaning mostly-wet roads out there.

And then it gets cold. December-cold. Canadian flood-gates open up; Wednesday flurries giving way to brisk sunshine by the weekend - when highs hold in the 20s with nighttime lows dipping into the teens. If there was snow on the ground it would get even colder.

Models suggest a general thaw the latter half of November: 40s... maybe 50F? Good times.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: PM rain likely. High 45. Low 36. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Light mix. Mainly wet roads. High 39. Low 30. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 15-25 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Cold wind, few flakes possible. High 36. Low 27. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, grab a coat. High 33. Low 19. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Flurries. What month is this again? High 29. Low 14. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Light snow or flurries possible. High 28. Low 15. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, still coat-worthy. High 26. Low 11. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
November 5th

1941: A snowstorm hits southern Minnesota, with the heaviest snow at Fairmont.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 5th

Average High: 48F (Record: 73F set in 2016)
Average Low: 32F (Record: 3F set in 1951)
Average Precipitation: 0.07" (Record: 0.93" set in 1948)
Average Snow: 0.2" (Record: 4.2" in 1959)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 5th

Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 58 minutes and 38 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 41 seconds

*Next Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM: December 1st (7:31 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 6th-14th (4:31 PM)
*When Do We Dip Below 9.5 Hours Of Daylight?: November 17th (9 hours, 28 minutes, 47 seconds)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

As one system finally departs the state Monday - with precipitation still occurring from it in the Arrowhead through the morning hours - another system will be on its heels, bringing more rain and snow chances. Highs will be in the 40s in most locations.

Highs will be a lot closer to average across the state on Monday - hovering within a degree or two in most spots.

We'll still see lingering effects from our Monday system as we head into Election Day on Tuesday with rain and snow expected. It'll be a colder day across the state, with most locations only making it into the 30s for highs.

For most of the week, the temperature trend is downward. Monday will be the warmest day as highs climb into the 40s. From Wednesday through the weekend, it appears highs will only be in the 20s and 30s for the Twin Cities, with lows in the teens at times.

Up to another half an inch of liquid will be possible in the Twin Cities with the Monday/Tuesday system, bringing totals from Sunday through Tuesday to around two-thirds of an inch.

Snow will continue across the Arrowhead Sunday Night into early Monday, with the heaviest snow expected north of Grand Marais. With the next system, more snow will be possible across central and southern Minnesota Monday Night into Wednesday. The heaviest totals will be across northern Minnesota, with a few inches of accumulation possible.

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National Weather Forecast

The big story Monday is going to be a system pushing through the center of the nation. This will help spark showers and storms across the central and southern Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Some of these storms are expected to be severe. On the north side of the system, some snow and a mix of rain/snow will be possible from North Dakota into the upper Peninsula of Michigan - some of which will also be courtesy of a departing system. Snow will continue across parts of the Rockies, with rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest. A low pressure area moving up the East Coast will also bring rain to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

On Monday, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather stretches from Arkansas and Louisiana into Kentucky due to the potential of severe storms mainly capable of damaging winds and tornadoes.

Here's a look at the weather across the country for Election Day. Showers will be possible from the upper Midwest into the Northeast and Southeast. Some of these storms could be on the strong side across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Some snow may also mix in from Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Rain and snow will be possible across parts of the Northwest.

A widespread 0.5-2"+ of precipitation could fall mainly east of the Mississippi due to this system over the next couple days with the system responsible for the severe weather threats Monday and Tuesday.

Heavy snow will continue to fall across parts of the Rockies, with the potential of over a foot in spots through Tuesday. Some snow will also fall in the upper Midwest, with the heaviest (6-9"+) possible across parts of the higher elevations in far northeastern Minnesota.

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The Galactic Collision That Reshaped Our Milky Way

More from Scientific American: "Roughly 10 billion years ago the Milky Way—then a smaller galaxy that did not contain its current spiral structure or diffuse halo of surrounding stars—suffered a massive head-on collision that shook it to its very core. That is when our galaxy’s gravity pulled a smaller companion, roughly one quarter its mass, into a dangerous dance: One where the dwarf galaxy plunged into and out of the Milky Way’s disk, oscillating back and forth until it was finally swallowed whole. Although our galaxy survived, it has never been the same. The collision scrambled the orbits of stars in its disk, making it much puffier, and sent alien stars flying all around the Milky Way, thus building much of its halo. The smash up also funneled new gas toward the galactic center, adding fuel that mixed and mingled with the Milky Way’s existing reservoirs to form new generations of stars. Over time the dwarf galaxy faded away, but the scars from its collision never really disappeared—not that they have been easy to find. Astronomers, who have long thought the Milky Way likely grew from a vast number of merging dwarf galaxies, have struggled to uncover the signs of the largest mergers—until today. Now a new paper published in Nature provides proof—or something close to it. “It’s like uncovering a fossil or an archaeological piece of evidence for how the galaxy got started,” says James Bullock, an astronomer at the University of California, Irvine, who is unaffiliated with the new research."

Climate Change Is on the Ballot

More from the New York Times: "But when you think about how to cast your ballot, don’t just focus on candidates running for the House and the Senate. Take a careful look at candidates running for state and local offices. Statewide ballot initiatives and under-the-radar local races could actually have the most immediate impact on climate change and clean energy policy, our colleague Coral Davenport reports. The power of state officials can be seen in California. By 2016, the last year for which figures are available, the state had reduced its greenhouse gas emissions to levels slightly below its 1990 totals, according to data from the California Air Resources Board. Those gains were primarily because of efforts at the state and local levels, like heavy investments in renewable energies. Even closer to home, local and county elections can also affect emissions through building codes and transit planning.

Governor’s Office immersed in drought talks, water policy do-over

More from the Arizona Capital Times: "Gov. Doug Ducey is all in on Arizona efforts to stabilize water levels in Lake Mead. The governor and his staff are playing an integral role in bringing Arizona water interests together to reach an internal state agreement on the drought-contingency plan. The Governor’s Office’s heavy involvement in the process comes after Ducey had high aspirations of making strides on water policy during the 2018 legislative session, but his push for far-reaching water reform quickly dried up. As he campaigns for a second, four-year term, Ducey has committed to completing a drought-contingency plan to leave more water in the Colorado River in order to conserve water levels on Lake Mead. The drought planning comes as the federal Bureau of Reclamation predicts a shortage could happen on the lake as soon as 2020."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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