Yes, my forecast is accurate — somewhere in North America. The reality: Weather forecasts are fairly close, most of the time. But there will be occasions when we blow it, when elements conspire to keep us humble. It's a steep learning curve, and you're never done learning.

Exhibit A: Wednesday's forecast. We thought we'd see 70, but fog and stratus persisted, keeping us about 10 degrees cooler. Fog in November is rare, but when it forms, a sun angle as high in the sky as it was in early February is unable to burn it away, resulting in a stubborn canopy of gray. Mea culpa.

A rush of cooler air sparks showers today as temperatures tumble by evening. Expect partial clearing Friday with a stiff breeze and 40s; typical weather for the first week of November. Fifties return early next week, above average once again. Models spin up a potentially big storm over the Midwest late next week. The brunt of any rain may stay south and east of Minnesota — a trend we may see much of the winter.

A mild bias lingers the next three weeks. At this rate I doubt we'll have snow on the ground for Thanksgiving.