Why the Wild cannot officially clinch a playoff spot tonight in Winnipeg
- Blog Post by: Michael Russo
- April 7, 2014 - 2:34 PM
“Same lineup tonight. Goaltender out,” coach Mike Yeo said, before the Wild visits the Winnipeg Jets for its final road game of the regular season.
When I looked stunned, Yeo said, laughing, “I mean ‘from the goaltender out.’ I should have worded that better. I should be careful, especially with our team the way things have gone this year.”
I'll be on Hockey Night in Canada Radio on SiriusXM (207/211) today at 2:45 p.m. CT and on the arena cam on NHL Network today at 5:40 p.m. CT.
Ilya Bryzgalov for the Wild (5-0-3 in nine appearances/eight starts with a 1.87 goals-against average and .920 save percentage) vs. Michael Hutchinson for the Jets.
The 6-foot-3 Hutchinson, 24, will make his NHL debut. He’s a 2008 Boston Bruins third-round pick who started this season in the ECHL. He was promoted to AHL St. John’s, where he played well (15-5-1 with a 2.33 goals-against average and .923 save percentage.
The Wild’s magic number to make the playoffs is three points, the Wild’s magic number to clinch the top wildcard spot is four.
The Wild cannot clinch tonight. If the Wild ends up tied in regulation/overtime wins with Phoenix, the next tiebreaker is head-to-head. Yes, the Wild is 2-1 against the Coyotes this year, but technically, in a bit of a strange rule, the Wild’s first win in Phoenix ceases to exist.
In determining the head-to-head tiebreaker when an odd number of games were played in the season series, the first game played in the city with the extra home game is not counted. So the Jan. 9 game (4-1 Wild win) is thrown out. Thus, for tiebreaker purposes, the Wild and Coyotes split the two-game season series, both teams earning two points and coincidentally tied in goals because they were each 3-1 victories.
So if the Wild’s actual totals and the Coyotes’ maximum totals after Monday night are 94 points and 34 regulation/overtime wins (which would happen if the Wild wins in regulation or overtime tonight), that still would not officially clinch a playoff berth for the Wild. If the Wild at the end of the season is tied with Phoenix in points and regulation/overtime wins, the next tiebreaker is goal differential for the season. Since that couldn’t be determined until Game 82, the Wild would have to wait to officially clinch if it wins in regulation/overtime.
Now, if the Wild wins tonight, and Tuesday night gets a point vs. Boston OR the Coyotes lose in Columbus, the Wild would clinch a playoff spot.
“They’re playing hard,” Yeo said of the Jets. “I look at the road trip, the way that they played, … they’re doing a lot of things well. I see a very strong work ethic, I see a team that’s playing with a lot of pride right now. I think we’re going to have to be ready to play very hard and I think we’re going to have to play very fast.”
My guess is Bryzgalov also starts tomorrow’s game against Boston, but we shall see. If the Wild does clinch the top wildcard spot by the time Thursday’s St. Louis game comes around, I wonder if we get to see local boy John Curry’s
NHL Wild debut. I did a big story on Curry for tomorrow's paper, so check that out. I also wonder if Yeo would take that opportunity to rest some of his big-minute guys. I’d be nervous against injury against a Blues team that the Wild still conceivably could play in the first round.
I also think if the Wild clinches before Thursday or Sunday vs. Nashville that we’ll get to see Christian Folin’s NHL debut.
“It would be a great feeling. I can’t wait. So hopefully they have a good game tonight,” said Folin, laughing.
Lines again for the Wild:
Niederreiter continues to have to play the fourth line. “It’s a function of the pieces fitting elsewhere right now,” Yeo said.
Basically, look at the lines, and unless he’s replacing Fontaine, where’s he playing? Coyle’s been absolutely fantastic for 2½ weeks, Moulson and Pominville are top-6 guys, Cooke and Brodziak have been a staple.
Niederreiter just has to continue to stay with it and his time to move up will come. On this line, he just needs to get pucks deep, get in on the forecheck and be physical. It has been a work in progress playing the right side. He’s clearly better and more comfortable on the left, but Yeo says that’s improving. Yeo said he’s been very pleased with Niederreiter’s defense all year.
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