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NFL Draft Order (Week 15): Vikings secure top 14 pick

  • Blog Post by: Master Tesfatsion
  • December 17, 2013 - 9:03 AM

Every Tuesday morning, we take a look at where the Vikings would pick in the 2014 NFL Draft if the season ended today.

Note: The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule where the team with the worst strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and gets a better pick. Strength of schedule is based off the win percentage of a team’s opponents, so there’s two ways to calculate it during the season. One would be to factor in a team’s entire 16-game schedule, or the other method would be to tally the records of games already played (the method used in this blog). At the end of the year, both methods will result in the same SOS percentage.

With two games left, the Vikings have gone 3-2-1 in the second half of this season. Their latest win, a 48-30 victory over the Eagles, has dropped their draft selection significantly. The Vikings will still finish the season with a good draft selection however.

The Jaguars, Raiders, Browns and Bucs all lost and jumped ahead of the Vikings, who had the fourth pick last week. Here’s how the draft order looks right now (records and strength of schedule, if necessary, in parentheses):

1. Texans (2-12)

2. Rams [via Redskins] (3-11)

3. Raiders (4-10) (.485)

4. Jaguars (4-10) (.495)

5. Falcons (4-10) (.533)

6. Browns (4-10) (.536)

7. Bucs (4-10) (.577)

8. Vikings (4-9-1)            

9. Bills (5-9) (.510)

10. Titans (5-9) (.541)

11. Giants (5-9) (.551)

12. Steelers (6-8) (.487)

13. Jets (6-8) (.500)

14. Rams (6-8) (.556)

With the Steelers, Jets and Rams at six wins, if the Vikings win out and the other 13 teams lose out, they’d hold the 14th pick. The Vikings cannot drop beyond the 14th pick with two games remaining.

The Vikings aren’t even listed on Football Outsiders odds for the top pick or a top three pick anymore, which might not be a bad thing because there isn’t a quarterback to select in the top 10 outside of Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who still hasn’t announced whether he will declare for the NFL Draft.

But if the Vikings continue to fall in the draft order…Johnny Football anyone? Patrick Reusse thinks the Vikings should take the Texas A&M quarterback regardless of their draft position. Most draft analysts think Manziel will go mid-first round.

So here’s our weekly hypothetical look at where the Vikings would pick if they didn’t tie with the Packers:

1. Texans (2-11)

2. Rams [via Redskins] (3-11)

3. Raiders (4-10) (.485)

4. Jaguars (4-10) (.495)

5. Vikings (4-10) (.520)

6. Falcons (4-10) (.533)

7. Browns (4-10) (.536)

8. Bucs (4-10) (.577)

9. Bills (5-9) (.510)

10. Titans (5-9) (.541)

11. Giants (5-9) (.551)

12. Steelers (6-8) (.487)

13. Jets (6-8) (.500)

14. Rams (6-8) (.556)

The Vikings would have the fifth pick in the draft in that situation with the tiebreaker advantage over the Falcons, Browns and Bucs.

© 2014 Star Tribune