PM Saturday Severe Potential; Heat Breaks Sunday
- Blog Post by: Paul Douglas
- August 31, 2013 - 9:13 AM
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THREAT
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather today for parts of the Midwest. Hail and high winds look to be the primary threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
According to the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, storm start to blow up around 2pm to 4pm across western/northwestern Minnesota. The images below suggest the timing of the storms later today.
NOAA's HPC 1 day rainfall potential suggest nearly an inch of rain possible in spots today where heavier thunderstorms developed. It appears that most spots will see about 0.25" to 0.50" which would be nice for some of our lawns and gardens, but we could use a little more.
The weather gamble
By Paul Douglas
When I go to Las Vegas I see a few shows & have a nice meal, but I don't play the slots or blackjack. No, I gamble with start-up companies. I have no desire to do it for fun.
Farmers are some of the best forecasters around. It's a matter of survival. Every growing season they play a reluctant game of craps, throwing their dice, praying a summer's worth of effort isn't destroyed by a single 30 minute hailstorm, hoping their crop doesn't wither in a sudden drought, or wash away in a flash flood. Most buy crop insurance, which is expensive, but in an era of wild extremes and weather whiplash, essential.
55 percent of Minnesota is back in moderate drought, up from 10 percent a week ago.
T-storms mushroom to life later today, a few severe, but we won't see the volume or duration of rain required to dent the drought.
Today may be the 7th day of 90F heat during the State Fair (a new record?), but big changes are brewing. Highs hold in the 70s Sunday & Labor Day, when dew points dip into the 40s. Every 20-degree drop in dew point means HALF as much water overhead. Sweet relief.
Enjoy the break from the muggies; long range guidance shows another spasm of 90F heat next weekend.
Todd Nelson's Startribune Weather Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
More on the Hill City, MN Tornado
Things have certainly been very active across the Midwest lately, more so along the international border. Thanks to a BIG bubble of hot and humid air, thunderstorm activity has been developing on its outer periphery. Much of the work week highlighted thunderstorms and heavy rain across central and northern Minnesota, some of which was severe. There was even a tornado on Thursday evening near Hill City, MN, which was caught by storm chaser Bob Conzemius
Thanks to Bob Conzemius for the information below:
"Caught this one very close to home. I was really surprised what happened today, but in retrospect, it certainly makes sense. Everything had to come together just right."
Hill City, MN Tornado
Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Duluth, MN for the information below:
"A tornado touched down west of Hill City early evening on Thursday, August 29th. A skywarn spotter reported the tornado at 6:33 pm two miles east of Remer. The tornado then moved southeast. The Aitkin County sheriff's department reported that numerous trees have been blown down in the area and roads were blocked."
This is what the tornado looked like on radar at 6:50pm
Quiet 2013 Tornado Season
Here's how quiet it has been! According to NOAA's SPC, there have only been 721 PRELIMINARY tornado reports across the country from January 1st to August 29th. The short term average (2005-2012) is 1260 through that date. Interestingly, this is the quietest tornado year so far, within the 2005-2013 time period! Last year at this time, we had seen 1,114 and in 2011 there were nearly 1,900 through August 29th.
Relief in Sight!
For the first time in a long time, there's an actual cool front in the forecast! Take a look at the extended forecast into Labor Day Monday. It'll still be a bit warm and humid on Saturday, but by late weekend and early next week, big changes will be taking place!
Saturday, August 31st
A cool front begins moving into the Upper Midwest with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected by late day, some of which could be strong to severe.
Thanks for checking in and have a great LONG weekend ahead!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV
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