Transit in Scott County is heading for a crunch in which something is going to have to give, a new report warns.

"Existing revenues will not meet the growing demand for transit, much less meet current needs," said a study prepared by the county and the two cities with whom it's linked for transit purposes. "Shakopee and Prior Lake fund reserves will be exhausted by 2016 and it will be necessary to either bring in new revenues or make significant reductions to commuter bus service."

The analysis likely helps explain the muted reaction of conservatives in the county to a DFL proposal to pull it into the five-county transit sales tax scheme, rejected amid a furor in 2008.

Existing funding sources are declining. And there's little prospect of new lane space on key routes into job-rich areas. Transit, which has grown in importance, will need to grow more, the report says.

Cutting service, it warns, would "greatly reduce access to jobs."

david peterson

dapeterson@startribune.com