Meteorological Fall Ends
- Blog Post by: Paul Douglas
- November 29, 2012 - 7:16 PM
3rd Most Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
By Todd Nelson
"When in a drought, don't predict rain... or snow" - The latest updated from the U.S. Drought Monitor had 63% of the nation in a moderate drought or worse. 100% of Minnesota is considered to be in some type of a drought with the Twin Cities currently sitting about 1.5" behind normal precipitation for the year.
A snowless start to the winter season is great news for commuters, we haven't had to dust off the 'hassel-factor' map too often this season yet. Those who are waiting for the flakes to fly, have an itch that a scratch won't reach as it has been a little too quiet. The landscape is bleak; we've only 'officially' seen 0.8" of snow this season, nearly 8.5" behind normal.
Meteorological Winter begins tomorrow and I don't seen any favorable snow events in our near future. In fact, we're forecasting 40s and 50s through the first few days of December with a chance of (light) rain!
November 30th coincides with the end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Thanks to Superstorm Sandy, 2012 has seen 19 named storms, 7 more than normal. That's tied for the 3rd most active season in recorded history.
BTW, MSP averages nearly 52" of snow per year. We've got a long way to go, but lot's of time to catch up...
Todd's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
FRIDAY: AM fog/drizzle Peeks of sun by afternoon. High: 38
FRIDAY NIGHT: Patchy fog, lingering clouds. Low: 34
SATURDAY: Clouds thicken. A little rain or drizzle. High: 48
SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, above average. Low: 33. High: 47.
MONDAY Unseasonably mild to start. Showers possble early, then turning colder with a few fluries late up north. Low: 38. High: 53, falling through the day.
TUESDAY: Lingering cloud early, cold afternoon sun. Low: 28. High: 32
WEDNESDAY: Bright sun, less wind... Where's the snow? Low: 21. High: 35.
THURSDAY: More clouds. Above average temps. Low: 28. High: 38.
Where's the snow?
Some folks may be asking that question after a fairly dismal start (for most) to the 2012-2013 winter season. Other than a few heavy pockets of snow across parts of the nation so far, the rest of the nation has been lulled to sleep by a rather quiet weather pattern as of late. Here are a couple of 'snowy' webcams that I could find from Thursday.
BWCA - Northeastern MN
Snowless in St. Paul
If folks in Seattle are sleepless, then folks in St. Paul are snowless. This was the webcam from St. Paul, MN earlier Thursday, which showed a pretty barren looking landscape.
Twin Cities November Numbers
November 2012 will go in the books as a fairly dry and snowless month. In fact, the Twin Cities will end up nearly an inch below normal November precipitation. That along with temperatures running nearly 3.5F above average allowed for WELL below normal snowfall. November snowfall is at a whopping 0.8" (nearly 8.0" below normal for the month and almost 8.5" below normal for the season. The numbers listed below are climate numbers as of Wednesday, November 28th.
2012-2012 Winter Season So Far...
Even though meteorological winter doesn't start until Saturday, the official seasonal snow totals are based from July 1st. So far this winter, things have been pretty pittful. With only 0.8" of snow, we are nearly 8.5" below normal snow for the season. An average Twin Cities winter sees nearly 52" of snow.
10th Least Snow November?
According to climate.umn.edu, November 2012 could be tied for the 10th least snowy November in modern day history! Take a look at the numbers below.
Even Worse Than Last Winter?
I didn't think it could be possible, but we're even doing worse than last year! Take a look. Last winter's 9th least snowy season on record (22.3" for the season) had 3.0" of snow in November of 2011.
From Feast to Famine
I still can't believe that from the 2010-2011 winter to the 2011-2012 winter we had such a flip-flop. 88.6" of snow fell in the Twin Cities two winters ago (good enough for the 4th snowiest winter on record) and a year later we had the 9th least snowy winter on record.
2010 US Snow Cover
The winter of 2010 was a big one for quite a few folks across the nation AND it started early. By this time two years ago, nearly one-third of the nation was covered in snow.
2012 US Snow Cover
So far this year, we're down about 10%-15% snow cover from this time 2 years ago. As of late November, 20% of the nation was covered in snow.
The drought across Minnesota isn't as bad as that in Nebraska, but we still have our fair share of problems. 100% of the state is considered to be in a moderate drought or worse with 25% of the state in an extreme drought.
A number of factors—both meteorological and societal—would need to conspire for the current event to resemble the all-out disaster of the Dust Bowl. Yet a devastating outcome could emerge with a flavor all its own."
West Coast Storm
Here's what the weather map looks like next Monday. Note the mild yellows and oranges sneaking up ahead of the cold front. Temperatures on Monday look to be very unseasonable mild. Widespread 50s, 60s and 70s will be likely in the middle part of the country from late weekend into early next week head of this front. The front will quickly drop temperatures back down to more seasonalbe levels as it passes with a little light snow across the far north.
2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends Friday
"In an average season (using 1981-2010 as a baseline), there are 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. This season ended up with 19 named storms, 10 of which became hurricanes, but just 1 of those became a major hurricane (defined as category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale). The 19 named storms ties for the third greatest number of such storms in a season on record. Historically, only about 3 percent of seasons experience 19 or more named storms. As rare as this feat is, it was amazingly the third consecutive season to have 19 named storms!"
Thanks for checking in, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV
© 2014 Star Tribune