Snow Chances This Week

We have our eye on several snow chances as we head through this week. The first will continue to move through as we head through Sunday Night, with 1-3" of snow possible. Another 1-3" will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning before a few more inches are possible as we head into Wednesday. A fourth storm, not shown in the loop above, could impact the region as we head into Friday and early Saturday, but it's too early for too many details on that system.

The heaviest snow as we wake up Monday morning will have fallen south and southwest of the Cities, where 2-4" are possible for areas like Mankato. Across the cities, tallies of 1-3" can be expected.

Due to those expected heavier amounts across portions of southern Minnesota, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place through Midnight Sunday Night.

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Snow Update (Through Saturday)

As we take a look at snowfall so far this year across the region, we are now below average in the Twin Cities through Saturday with 25.6" of snow so far (33rd snowiest start). International Falls is over 5" below average, but Duluth still sits at 17" above average with 58.2" so far - the eighth snowiest start to the season through January 11th.

The most snow on the ground is across northern Minnesota, where the latest MN DNR snow depth update shows tallies of at least two feet in some areas. Closer to the Twin Cities, Afton State Park reported 3" of snow depth on the 8th with the same reported at William O'Brien State Park on the 11th, but Lake Maria State Park reported 6" on the 10th.

Meanwhile, if you are heading up to the North Shore anytime soon, many of the state parks are reporting 20-30" of snow on the ground.

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Potentially Snowy Week Ahead - Up And Down Temps
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

We’ve been in somewhat of a snow “drought” recently in the Twin Cities. Before this past weekend only a trace of snow had fallen in January at MSP. The last snowfall that was greater than a trace was back on December 30th when 4.9” fell. Meanwhile, the snow depth at MSP airport Sunday morning was 3”, the same depth it’s been stuck at the past week.

But it looks like our snow fortunes will turn around this week for snow lovers! We’re waking up this morning to a fresh few inches of snow on the ground. A second shot of light snow will side through tonight through early Tuesday with another 1-3” of accumulation expected. A third system Wednesday brings a couple more inches, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Then we watch a potentially more potent system rumble through the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday that could bring enough to shovel or plow depending on the overall track.

Rollercoaster highs will continue with values near 30F Monday and Tuesday before crashing into the teens for the middle of the week.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Cloudy today. Snow tonight. Wake up 20. High 30. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Snow lingers early. Falling PM temps. Wake up 25. High 30. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Light snow, especially in the PM hours. Wake up 9. High 18. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Cold sunshine returns. Wake up 0. High 16. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.
FRIDAY: Next round of snow. Gusty winds. Wake up 7. High 27. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: AM snowflakes. Clouds stick around. Wake up 3. High 18. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Light snow in Northern MN. Wake up -4. High 10. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
January 13th

1916: The high temperature in the Twin Cities only reaches a frigid -14 degrees.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
January 13th

Average High: 23F (Record: 48F set in 1987)
Average Low: 7F (Record: -30F set in 1916)
Average Precipitation: 0.03" (Record: 0.37" set in 1887)
Average Snowfall: 0.4" (Record: 6.0" set in 1967)
Record Snow Depth: 19" in 1984

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 13th

Sunrise: 7:48 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 5 minutes and 58 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~1 minute and 38 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 9.5 Hours Of Daylight? January 25th (9 hours, 30 minutes, and 5 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/Before 7:30 AM: February 3rd (7:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 5 PM: January 18th (5:01 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

We'll be watching snow chances on Monday, mainly very early in the day and then again as we head through Monday Night. Otherwise, expect a lot of clouds but a few peeks of sun. Highs will be in the 20s across much of the state, with a few 30s across southern Minnesota.

HIghs will be up to 10F degrees above average across the state on Monday. The average high in the Twin Cities for January 13th is 23F.

The best chance of seeing any snow showers in the Twin Cities Monday would be really early in the day and again as we head into the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect mainly cloudy skies. Temperatures start off the morning around 20F, climbing to around 30F for a high.

And this will be another up-and-down week temperature-wise in the Twin Cities with highs in the low 30s to begin the week but they will swing downward into the teens Wednesday and Thursday. They should rebound into the 20s with a system moving through the region Friday.

But then those temperatures will tumble again heading into next weekend and potentially the fourth week of 2020.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, rain and snow will impact portions of the western United States, even bringing snow to Seattle. Some snow showers will be possible around the Great Lakes during the morning, with some in the Upper Midwest by the evening. A frontal boundary across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will lead to showers and storms.

Rainfall amounts through the early week across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic could top 1-2" in some locations. Meanwhile, feet of snow will be possible out west, particularly in the Cascades. Seattle could even see a few inches of snow.

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Those big wildfires in Australia look familiar — they’re much like California’s

More from the San Francisco Chronicle: "The brownish-orange skies, choking soot, mass evacuations and deaths of people and wildlife are all familiar to Californians who have endured their share of fire disasters in recent years — except that the bushfires raging across more than 15 million acres of Australia are orders of magnitude worse. Nearly 140 separate blazes have burned since November — springtime in Australia — sending plumes of smoke all the way to South America. They have burned at least 2,000 structures, killed 25 people, including three firefighters, and incinerated hundreds of millions of animals, including kangaroos and native endangered koala bears."

Huge U.S. Crops Show Technology Matters More Than Record Rains

More from Bloomberg: "How much does crazy weather matter anymore to crop production? That’s the question grain traders are scratching their heads over after fresh data showed U.S. farmers churned out another bumper harvest despite some of the wildest growing conditions in years. Under pressure from soggy fields, late planting and bouts of early winter weather, American corn and soy plants proved resilient thanks largely to advances in genetically-modified seeds, precision tools and inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. In its critical monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised yield estimates for both crops. That defied expectations from analysts who, on average, predicted a drop."

Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

More from NASA: "For decades, people have legitimately wondered how well climate models perform in predicting future climate conditions. Based on solid physics and the best understanding of the Earth system available, they skillfully reproduce observed data. Nevertheless, they have a wide response to increasing carbon dioxide levels, and many uncertainties remain in the details. The hallmark of good science, however, is the ability to make testable predictions, and climate models have been making predictions since the 1970s. How reliable have they been? Now a new evaluation of global climate models used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures over the past half-century answers that question: most of the models have been quite accurate."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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