Potential for Severe Storm Outbreak Increases. The Twin Cities metro is now in a slight risk, as defined by NOAA SPC, with an enhanced threat of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes over southern Minnesota. It would appear that watches are imminent - stay alert for warnings later today.


Ripe. After this first band of heavy rain moves through skies brighten; a surge of drier air resulting in a few hours of filtered sunshine, enough sun to leave the atmosphere very unstable. Throw in significant low-level wind shear and rising dew points along a warm frontal boundary and you have many (most) of the  ingredients required for strong to severe storms.


HRRR Model: 5 PM Today. NOAA's high-resolution HRRR suggests a squall line pushing through the metro area by late afternoon. Most of us will just see heavy T-storms but a few cells may turn severe with large hail and potentially damaging winds. In this environment I wouldn't be surprised to see supercells spin up ahead of the main line, spinning up a few tornadoes.

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Another Dousing - Slight Severe Threat Southern Minnesota - May Was Hottest on Record

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Tornado Watch until 10 pm - Includes the Twin Cities