Potential for Severe T-Storm Outbreak Increases - Watches Likely Later This Afternoon
June 14, 2016 — 12:50pm
Potential for Severe Storm Outbreak Increases. The Twin Cities metro is now in a slight risk, as defined by NOAA SPC, with an enhanced threat of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes over southern Minnesota. It would appear that watches are imminent - stay alert for warnings later today.
Ripe. After this first band of heavy rain moves through skies brighten; a surge of drier air resulting in a few hours of filtered sunshine, enough sun to leave the atmosphere very unstable. Throw in significant low-level wind shear and rising dew points along a warm frontal boundary and you have many (most) of the ingredients required for strong to severe storms.
HRRR Model: 5 PM Today. NOAA's high-resolution HRRR suggests a squall line pushing through the metro area by late afternoon. Most of us will just see heavy T-storms but a few cells may turn severe with large hail and potentially damaging winds. In this environment I wouldn't be surprised to see supercells spin up ahead of the main line, spinning up a few tornadoes.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
We will pay our cold-weather-January tax in the coming days. After a stretch like this I don't feel the least bit guilty for saving 70 degrees and sunshine. That's the thing about Minnesotans - we don't take nice weather (or warmth) for granted. What will probably be the coldest outbreak of 2019 is shaping up, starting tomorrow, and spilling over into the end of next week. February looks a bit more reasonable, at least on paper.
So much for the January Thaw - now it's time for a little January Punishment as a series of cold fronts muscle south of the border, each one preceded by a shot of snow. Today may turn icy, and Sunday's clipper may be more formidable with enough to shovel and plow - coming out ahead of what may be the coldest days of winter next Tuesday or Wednesday. Note to self: I picked the wrong weeks to get away this winter....
A longer-duration snow event is possible Monday into Tuesday with 2-5" of snow expected in the Twin Cities. Meanwhile, enjoy the little warm up early this week, as we're downright cold once again by Friday. Click for details! - D.J. Kayser
Expect single digits & teens for highs into early February; even the metro area may not climb above 0F on Friday. Chillingly good news: we'll all be well-preserved! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
The mercury may finally dip below 0F over the weekend in the Twin Cities; the latest 'first subzero' reading on record at MSP. And the 11 inches of snow that's piled up so far this winter is the least, to date, since 2007. Check the blogs for more details. -Todd Nelson