Potential for Severe T-Storm Outbreak Increases - Watches Likely Later This Afternoon
June 14, 2016 — 12:50pm
Potential for Severe Storm Outbreak Increases. The Twin Cities metro is now in a slight risk, as defined by NOAA SPC, with an enhanced threat of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes over southern Minnesota. It would appear that watches are imminent - stay alert for warnings later today.
Ripe. After this first band of heavy rain moves through skies brighten; a surge of drier air resulting in a few hours of filtered sunshine, enough sun to leave the atmosphere very unstable. Throw in significant low-level wind shear and rising dew points along a warm frontal boundary and you have many (most) of the ingredients required for strong to severe storms.
HRRR Model: 5 PM Today. NOAA's high-resolution HRRR suggests a squall line pushing through the metro area by late afternoon. Most of us will just see heavy T-storms but a few cells may turn severe with large hail and potentially damaging winds. In this environment I wouldn't be surprised to see supercells spin up ahead of the main line, spinning up a few tornadoes.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Looking back many of us will consider this the good 'ol days - back when temperatures were comfortable - back when neighbors weren't whining about the dew point. A July-like spell of heat and humidity is coming, and by the weekend heat indices may be well into the 90s. You wanted summer? You earned a real summer. And it's coming.
Today was a little on the cool side, although the observed high of 71F is average for May 21. A big shout-out to volunteer weather observers who collect data for NOAA NCDC's COOP program - details in the blog. A hot front is brewing for late week and the weekend. Yes, it may be good time for holiday weekend plans. There, I just jinxed the forecast.
A stray shower is possible today, but amounts will be light - enough to settle the dust. Temperatures & dew points creep up as the week goes on; more numerous T-storms Wednesday into Friday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
A very nice spring day is expected Sunday as highs will climb to around 70 with a mix of sun and clouds. Rain chances do return next week, and parts of the state could certainly use a bit of rain at the moment. Click for more details! - D.J. Kayser
Many of us got our obligatory ration of rainwater last night as the first line of T-storms rumbled across the area. It was good hearing the sound of rain on the roof - we needed it. Expect a cloudier, cooler pattern over the weekend with a chance of a shower, but significant rains remain over far southern Minnesota and Iowa. Again.