Potential for Severe T-Storm Outbreak Increases - Watches Likely Later This Afternoon
June 14, 2016 — 12:50pm
Potential for Severe Storm Outbreak Increases. The Twin Cities metro is now in a slight risk, as defined by NOAA SPC, with an enhanced threat of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes over southern Minnesota. It would appear that watches are imminent - stay alert for warnings later today.
Ripe. After this first band of heavy rain moves through skies brighten; a surge of drier air resulting in a few hours of filtered sunshine, enough sun to leave the atmosphere very unstable. Throw in significant low-level wind shear and rising dew points along a warm frontal boundary and you have many (most) of the ingredients required for strong to severe storms.
HRRR Model: 5 PM Today. NOAA's high-resolution HRRR suggests a squall line pushing through the metro area by late afternoon. Most of us will just see heavy T-storms but a few cells may turn severe with large hail and potentially damaging winds. In this environment I wouldn't be surprised to see supercells spin up ahead of the main line, spinning up a few tornadoes.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Today should be a step in the right direction (for most of us) with 50s and a larger ration of sunshine. A relatively quiet week is shaping up, but some rain by late Friday and early Saturday signals the arrival of yet another, inevitable cold front. That, and some days I wonder what happened to...wonder?
Except for the 40 mph. winds Friday wasn't too hard to take with highs reaching the 60s over much of central and southern Minnesota. Today will feel more like mid-November with an annoying wind and a few flurries out there this morning. The pattern isn't ripe for big, beefy storms anytime soon, just a return to "average" next week.
It will be difficult to improve on Thursday's weather anytime soon, so let's not even try. We may still see a few more 60s before we're trudging around in slush, but 70s will become more fleeting as we sail into late October and early November. No big storms brewing, just an annoying wind today and flurries on Saturday. That, and NOAA is telling us to relax a little about the upcoming winter. Right.
It sure makes a difference when the sun is out - and when temperatures rise above average. Such should be the case today with 60s pretty much statewide and a southwest breeze. Soak it up because Saturday may feel like mid-November, complete with raw winds and a few PM flurries. That said, no major storms are brewing close to home anytime soon.
Admit it - having the sun out on Tuesday with temperatures closer to average for mid-October felt like a (bad) vacation. We cool off a few degrees today but tomorrow may restore your faith in a Minnesota October. No big storms of any flavor brewing - fairly quiet weather close to home looking out 1-2 weeks...