Potential for Severe T-Storm Outbreak Increases - Watches Likely Later This Afternoon
June 14, 2016 — 12:50pm
Potential for Severe Storm Outbreak Increases. The Twin Cities metro is now in a slight risk, as defined by NOAA SPC, with an enhanced threat of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes over southern Minnesota. It would appear that watches are imminent - stay alert for warnings later today.
Ripe. After this first band of heavy rain moves through skies brighten; a surge of drier air resulting in a few hours of filtered sunshine, enough sun to leave the atmosphere very unstable. Throw in significant low-level wind shear and rising dew points along a warm frontal boundary and you have many (most) of the ingredients required for strong to severe storms.
HRRR Model: 5 PM Today. NOAA's high-resolution HRRR suggests a squall line pushing through the metro area by late afternoon. Most of us will just see heavy T-storms but a few cells may turn severe with large hail and potentially damaging winds. In this environment I wouldn't be surprised to see supercells spin up ahead of the main line, spinning up a few tornadoes.
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Although many lawns and fields could use a free watering right about now dry weather is the rule Friday and Saturday, the nicer (drier) day of the weekend for outdoor plans. Storms rumble in late Sunday, marking the leading edge of more comfortable weather to start next week. No worries - weather should be warm enough for shorts and T-shirts just in time for the state of the Minnesota State Fair next Thursday.
Actual temperatures have been running (consistently) warmer than model guidance in recent months. Not sure why, but I don't think I'm imagining it. Temperatures trend well above average into Sunday before a correction early next week, with a relatively comfortable kick-off to the Great Minnesota Get Together. T-storms prowl far southern Minnesota today; a better chance of statewide storms by the PM hours on Sunday.
The (slightly cooler) front moved a bit slower than expected, allowing temperatures to surge higher than expected on Tuesday. 91F shortly after noon, making yesterday the 18th day of 90-degree heat so far in 2018. I don't see any more 90s looking out into next week, although we may come close Friday and Saturday. A return to average sounds nice, but many are wondering when we'll get our next statewide dousing - some lawns are beginning to brown out a bit out there.
The thermometer should hit 90 once again Monday, but it'll be the last time it does so for at least a few days. A cold front Tuesday will usher in the chance of some isolated storms along with slightly cooler weather for the middle of the week. Click for details! - D.J. Kayser