"Living in a world of pristine beaches and towering castles, it’s easy to forget that people from halfway around the world travel to our backyard to see the views we often take for granted. Some of the best foliage is right here in the U.S., and the autumnal scenery that photographers capture for postcards is something we can see on a leisurely drive just a few hours outside the city. Taking a weekend trip to see the fall leaves can yield some of the best sights you’ll see all year. If you’d like to actually enjoy the views, instead of squinting at Google Maps in the driver’s seat, taking a foliage train trip could be the perfect solution. Whether you’re on a solo leaf-peeping excursion or have your children in tow, the train does all the work for you. The train is your chauffeur, your tour guide, and your GPS. You don’t have to plan a route, keep your eyes on the road, or even remember to pack snacks. All you have to do is sip on your to-go cup of steaming hot cider or pumpkin spice coffee, sit back, and enjoy the ride."
2nd Warmest Lowest Temperature For Meteorological Summer
Here's an interesting tweet from the NWSTwinCities, which suggests that the lowest temperature recorded in the Twin Cities for Meteorological Summer (June-August) was 52F. That ties for the 2nd warmest lowest temperature on record for that period. Alsto note that all but 1 of the top 10 years with the warmest minimum temperature for that period have been since 2000!
"How Are Fall Allergies Different From Spring Allergies? Season Changes Can Bring New Symptoms"
"When temperatures drop and summer weather fades into autumn chill, there are certain things we all love: snuggly sweaters, hot cocoa, the smell of indoor fires. And there are others that, well, a lot of us could live without. Fall, like spring, is a prime season for allergies, and it can be hellish for people who are sensitive to hayfever. But fall and spring allergies are different in certain ways, and knowing how those differences play out can mean you're fully armed to deal when the sniffles begin. Dr. Purvi Parikh, an allergist/immunologist with the Allergy & Asthma Network, tells Bustle, "Fall and spring allergies are very similar in terms of symptoms. They both cause coughing, wheezing, nasal congestion, runny nose, sneezing, and itchy watery eyes. The main difference is the type of pollen." If you get hay fever, you're part of the 40 percent of allergy-havers with a pollen sensitivity. The big distinction between the seasons, Dr. Parikh says, is in the pollen allergens themselves, the elements that become airborne and irritate the airways of people with sensitivities."
US Drought Monitor - Minnesota
Another bout of heavy rain impacted much of the state earlier this week, which helped overcome abnormally dry conditions across parts of central and southeastern MN. According to the US Drought Monitor, 27% of the state is now abnormally dry, which is down from 38% last week. Moderate drought conditions have decreased from 9% last week to a little less than 7% this week.
By Paul Douglas
Here'a Public Service Announcement for anyone planning an outdoor wedding in June. Consider September.
I love every month and every season, but there's something extra-special about September.
Let me list the ways: your odds of a dry weekend are statistically higher in September than June or July. Less heat and humidity, better visibility, and a lower risk of hail the size of minivans.
Get ready for another stunning day, with a canopy of blue sky and a fresh breeze. A lonely thundershower may bubble up over far northern Minnesota Monday and Wednesday, but the MSP metro area may not be puddle-free thru Friday. High temperatures mellow into the 80s, with humidity levels ticking upward. More mid-August than mid-September.
We won't be griping about Minnesota's weather anytime soon, with a potentially major Hurricane Florence forecast to hit the Carolinas Thursday, and then stall out over the Mid Atlantic for several days. I'm increasingly concerned about a long-duration inland flooding disaster from the Carolinas to Washington D.C. Alert friends out east - stay tuned.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Just about perfect. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 74.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SE 5. Low: 54.
MONDAY: Mild sunshine. T-shower far north. Winds: S 7-12. High: 76.
TUESDAY: Hazy sunshine, a touch of humidiy returns. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 61. High: 80.
WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine. T-storm up north. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 83.
THURSDAY: Sticky sun, feel like mid-August. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 85.
FRIDAY: Few showers and storms. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 79.
SATURDAY: Front stalls. More T-storms. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 80.
This Day in Weather History
1979: 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Douglas County.
1917: Very chilly air moves into Minnesota, with a low of 17 degrees at Roseau.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 75F (Record: 95F set in 1947)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 38F set in 1883)
Record Rainfall: 1.79" set in 1900
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 50 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes & 4 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 2 hours and 47 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 9th at Midnight
0.5 Days Since New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:
"Tonight – or any autumn evening – Cassiopeia the Queen can be found in the northeast after sunset. This constellation has the distinctive shape of a W, or M, depending on the time of night you see it. The shape of this constellation makes Cassiopeia’s stars very noticeable. Look for the Queen, starting at nightfall or early evening. Cassiopeia represents an ancient queen of Ethiopia. The entire constellation is sometimes also called Cassiopeia’s Chair, and some old star maps depict the queen sitting on the chair, marked by the five brightest stars of this constellation. These stars are Schedar, Caph, Gamma Cassiopeiae, Ruchbah, and Segin. If you have a dark sky, you can look below Cassiopeia in the northeast on these autumn evenings for a famous binocular object. This object is called the Double Cluster in Perseus. These are open star clusters, each of which consists of young stars still moving together from the primordial cloud of gas and dust that gave birth to the cluster’s stars. These clusters are familiarly known to stargazers as H and Chi Persei."
"Flooding Rains In The Ohio Valley - Watching Florence Olivia Helene And Likely Isaac"
- Heavy rains will continue across the Ohio Valley this weekend as the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Gordon slowly swirl through the region. An additional 3" to 6"+ can't be ruled out with flash flooding a possibility through PM .
- Tropical Storm Florence in the Central Atlantic continues to track west with an increase in intensity expected over the next several days as it omnously approaches the East Coast. There is still some uncertainly on whether or not this will make an East Coast landfall, but model trends are suggesting a greater potential of that happening late next week.
- Tropical Storm Helene and Tropical Storm NINE (likely to become Isaac later today) have also developed in the Atlantic. Both systems are drifting west off the west coast of Africa and are forecast to become hurricanes by early next week.
- Hurricane Olivia in the Eastern Pacific continues to track west toward the Hawaiian Islands and is forecast to impact the region as a tropical storm by early next week.
Morning Radar. Remnants of what was Tropical Storm Gordon will continue to swirl through the Ohio Valley this weekend. Areas of heavy rain were found from near St. Louis, MO to Indianapolis, IN to Pittsburgh, PA and even as far east as New Jersey. This rain is falling along an elongated stationary frontal boundary that will focus and enhance heavier rains in these areas through the rest of the weekend.
Rainfall Forecast. Heavy rain and flood concerns will continue to be the main threat as the remnants of Gordon move through the region. The rainfall forecast (image above) suggests a fairly wide swath of 3" to 6"+ (orange and red colors) extending from near St. Louis, MO to Indianapolis, IN to Columbus, MO to Pittsburgh, PA and into Central New York and New Jersey. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to ride over the same areas through the weekend and early next week, which will prolonged the heavy rain chance and keep the flood threat at elevated levels.
Flood Concerns. The threat for heavy rain across the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and into parts of the Northeast over the next 2 to 3 days has prompted several Flash Flood and Flood Watches (in green). Much of the Ohio Valley will remain in the flood threat throughevening, while folks in the Northeast will have flood concerns lingering through . Again, the potential of 3" to 6"+ of rain could not only prompt flash flooding on areas roadways, but folks near rivers, streams and creeks will also have to be weary as water levels are expected to rise and crest over the next several days.
Excessive Rain Outlooks. There is a HIGH Risk of excessive rainfall today across parts of central/southern Illinois through parts of central/southern Indiana and far western Ohio, which means that areas of extremely heavy rainfall and flooding will be likely within these areas. A MODERATE Risk of excessive rain surrounds this area and extends from near St. Louis, MO to near Columbus, OH. By, the heaviest rain corridor will likely shift into the eastern half of Ohio to northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Again, keep in mind that widespread 3" to 6"+ total rainfall amounts can be expected in these areas through the weekend, but the excessive rainfall outlooks suggest where the heaviest rains will be focused and .
Tracking Florence. As of earlymorning, NOAA's National Hurricane Central suggested that "Florence" in the Central Atlantic was still a Tropical Storm. However, the forecast track is quite concerning as it drifts west over the next several days. According to NOAA's NHC, "Florence" could potentially become a major hurricane (category 3 with sustained winds of 111mph or stronger) by morning. The official forecast track and cone of uncertainty brings "Florence" closer to the East Coast by late next week. While, extended forecasts still remain uncertain, those living along the East Coast should start making contingency plans as the storm continues to track west towards the US.
Forecast Uncertainty. Both American and European models are struggling with the exact track of this storm, which is to be expected this far out. However, we are starting to note that those model tracks aren't as dispersed as they were a few days ago. There seems to be a slight narrowing or focus on a potential track near the Carolina Coast late next week. With that said, we are still several days away from any potential close encounter or landfall with this system and things could and likely will change. However, it is imperative to keep an eye on forecasts as we head into the next several days as "Florence" continues to intensify and drift west toward the US.
Active in the Atlantic. According to NOAA's NHC, there are 3 other waves of energy that they are keeping an eye on. First of all, there is a weak wave west of "Florence" that has a low probability of tropical formation over the next 5 days. The 2 other waves of energy are located west of Africa that are both forecast to become hurricanes by early next week. As of early, "Helene" was already a tropical storm and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by late or early as it drifts northwest over the next several days. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression "NINE" has developed west of "Helene" and is also forecast to become a hurricane ("Isaac") by early morning. The track of that storm looks potentially a little more concerning as it drifts west toward the Lesser Antilles late next week.
Tracking Tropical Depression "NINE" and Likely "Isaac". According to NOAA's NHC, Tropical Depression "NINE" will intensify as it drifts west over the next several days. We will likely be tracking Tropical Storm "Isaac" at some point this weekend and potentially even Hurricane "Isaac" early next week. The forecast gets a little more concerning late next week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, so we will have to monitor this system very closely during the 2nd full week of September, which is the typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and specifically on.
Hurricane Olivia. Last week, Hawaii had a close call with Hurricane "Norman", but thankfully that storm took a northerly track and scooted by east of the Island. Unfortunately, we may not be as lucky with "Olivia" as the official track takes it right over the islands by early/mid next week. The forecast also calls for a weaker, tropical storm to be impacting the islands at that point, but gusty winds and heavy rains will still be a concern if the forecast holds.
Todd Nelson, Meteorologist, Praedictix
According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!
Wildfires continue to burn across the western part of the country. There are 2 fires near Redding, CA in the northern part of the state that have consumed nearly 70,000 acres - the Delta and Hirz fires. Those 2 fires seem to be contributing to the worst smoke issues in the Northwestern part of the country. However, some of that smoke is even drifting into the Midwest, but it is not as thick as it once was.
2018 Lightning Fatalities - EIGHTEEN
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 18 people have died from lightning; 14 have been males and only 4 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 234 males have died, while only 65 females have died.
PRELIMINARY Tornado Count This Year
According to NOAAs SPC, the PRELIMINARY tornado count across the US this year stands at 802 (through September 7th). Note that this is less than the last couple of years, but more than what we had in 2013. Keep in mind that the short-term average (2005-2015) suggests an average of more than 1,200 tornadoes.
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of September by state. Florida sees the most with 8, while Minnesota averages only 2 tornadoes.
1.) Heavy rain across portions of the the Northeast, Mon, Sep 10.
2.) High significant wave heights from the Carolinas through Cape Cod, Tue-Fri, Sep 11-14.
3.) High winds for much of the Coastal Plain from the Carolinas through Massachusetts, Wed-Fri, Sep 12-14.
4.) Heavy rain across coastal areas from the Outer Banks through Long Island and extending into the Central Appalachians, Thu-Fri, Sep 13-14.
5.) Flooding possible across portions of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
6.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.
7.) Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley.
8.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Sat-Sun, Sep 15-16.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of South Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana, Sat-Mon, Sep 15-17.
9.) Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of the Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, California, and the Pacific Northwest, Sat, Sep 15.
10.) Severe drought for parts of New England, the middle Mississippi Valley, Great Plains, western U.S., and Hawaii.
Temperature Anomaly on Saturday
The temperature anomaly across North America on Saturday showed temperatures above avearge across much of the western US and the Southeastern US. However, cooler than average weather was across much of central US and Eastern Canada. Temperatures look to gradually warm across the Central US over the coming days.
Here's the temperature anomaly as we head closer to the middle part of the month. Note that there is initially cooler than average temps across much of the Central and Northeastern US, but warmer weather will gradually build in over the next several days. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will build into the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, September 15th - 21st will be warmer than average across much of the nation, while, slightly cooler than average temps will only be found along the West Coast.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather loop below shows active weather across the Central and Eastern US with the remnants of Gordon moving through the region. Heavy, flooding rains will make the weekend very wet and could linger into early next week across the Northeast. There will also be areas of heavy rain in Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley, where isolated flood concerns maybe possible. Meanwhile, folks across much of the Western US will remain dry.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
YIKES - According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain continuing across parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast as remnant moisture from Gordon slides through. There also appears to be another surge of heavy precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic States as "Florence" moves into the region, but the exact track is still yet to be determined. Areas of heavy rain will continue across southern Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Here is the national drought map from September 4th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and for a few areas in the Central and Southern Plains. The good news is that several locations in the Central and Southern US have had some fairly good rains over the recent days/week and there is more on the way so some improvement is being seen there.
*The tournament has been besieged by a heatwave and unbearable humidity
*Novak Djokovic described the Arthur Ashe Stadium as a 'sauna' on Thursday
*All four grand slams in 2018 have been played out in the midst of heatwaves
"Trillion-ton iceberg four times the size of London starts to ‘spin’ towards ocean"
"One of the largest icebergs ever recorded, a trillion-ton monster four times the size of London has begun moving and spinning as it breaks free of the ice. Last year, the iceberg A-68 broke off Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf after years of cracks spreading across the ice – but it’s remained ‘stuck’ near the ice shelf. But it’s now on the move, according to Professor Mark Brandon of the Open University – who says the iceberg ‘will not be stopped easily’. Brandon writes on his blog that in July, ‘the weather conditions and ocean currents conspire to swing the trillion tonnes of the giant iceberg A68 in an anticlockwise direction. ‘Sentinel-1 SAR satellite imagery from 29 August 2018 shows that to the north of the iceberg the wind is pushing the sea ice northwards faster than the iceberg is rotating."
"Climate change increases strength of El Niño/La Niña, study"
"This summer was a season of scorching wildfires burning across the world - Greece and Sweden experienced unusually active wildfire seasons and both California and British Columbia experienced their worst wildfire seasons on record. Arson, fire management strategies, and lightning all contribute to wildfires, and many climate experts note that the average increase in temperatures over time has impacted the intensity of fires and area burned. A new study expands on climate change's impact on wildfires and reports that human-released greenhouse gases intensify El Niño and La Niña events that can drive regional temperature extremes and wildfire frequency. The study projected future climate conditions assuming that greenhouse gas emissions will continue on a business-as-usual pathway without any drastic political intervention. Regional climates to sea surface temperature anomalies that were affected by El Niño/La Niña were evaluated from a baseline period of 1920-1980 to current and future years to investigate how much current trends diverge from historic data. All of the climate simulations from the years 2040-2100 indicated that human-induced climate change produced increased El Niño/La Niña teleconnection (a linkage between weather changes occurring in widely separated regions) strength over many land regions and drove inter-annual variability in regional temperature extremes."
"Wisconsin’s catastrophic flooding is a glimpse of the Midwest’s drenched future"
"An entire summer’s worth of rain has fallen across a broad swath of the Midwest in recent days. The resulting record floods have wrecked homes and altered the paths of rivers, in one case destroying a waterfall in Minnesota. The worst-affected region, southwest Wisconsin, has received more than 20 inches of rain in 15 days– more than it usually gets in six months. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin declared a statewide emergency last week, mobilizing the Wisconsin National Guard to assist flood victims if necessary. The Kickapoo River in southwest Wisconsin rose to record levels — as high as six feet above the previous high water mark — producing damage that local emergency management officials described as “breathtaking.” In the tiny Wisconsin town of Gays Mills, this is the third catastrophic flood in 10 years. After floods a decade ago, about a quarter of the residents left, and the town was partially rebuilt on higher ground. But this time around is even worse — with almost every home in the town damaged."
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