The stage is set Sunday for the potential ousting of St. Paul school board incumbents, the latest step in what could be the creation of a feisty new board majority.

Board Chairwoman Mary Doran, Vice Chairman Keith Hardy and 16-year incumbent Anne Carroll face a tough fight for endorsement at the city DFL convention, and like nine of the 10 challengers they have vowed to quit the race if turned away.

The challengers are drawing on the strength of a Caucus for Change movement powered by the district's teachers union. Any who succeed in nabbing an endorsement in heavily DFL St. Paul would be well on the way to victory in November — possibly putting Superintendent Valeria Silva under tighter scrutiny for the direction she's set in the state's second-largest district.

The challengers will have no hand, however, short of a buyout, in deciding if Silva stays with the job. Last month, the current board voted 6-to-1 to extend her contract through 2018, only to see Silva apply for and then abandon a bid for a Florida job a few weeks later.

"I think that will be on a lot of people's minds [on Sunday]," Yusef Mgeni, a member of the St. Paul NAACP and former district administrator who is a convention delegate, said this week. "The timing was not the best as far as the incumbents are concerned, that's for sure. They had enough challenges already in [persuading people] things were on the right track."

At a meeting of the St. Paul NAACP last month, Roy Magnuson, head of the teachers union's political arm, said fewer than 15 people declared allegiances to Doran, Hardy and Carroll by name during pre-convention maneuvering known as subcaucusing — the process used to divvy up delegates for the citywide event.

The incumbents also enjoy support within a number of "Racial Equity" subcaucuses. But a Ward One equity subcaucus totaled just four delegates.

Magnuson expects more than 400 delegates to attend Sunday's convention at Washington Technology Magnet School. Asked to project how many will turn out for Caucus for Change candidates, he declined to specify, but added: "Support will be good, and it will be evident right away."

Four of the board's seven seats are up for election, and Caucus for Change already has a sitting board member sympathetic to the cause in John Brodrick, a retired district teacher.

Caucus for Change was rooted in the frustrations of five teachers — including Magnuson — who pushed unsuccessfully a year ago for higher expectations of students and consequences for those who misbehave and disrupt classrooms. Having failed to change the system from within, Magnuson decided to work outside it to find new leadership.

Denise Rodriguez, president of the St. Paul Federation of Teachers, said Caucus for Change also gives voice to parents, and to that end, the union decided against endorsing candidates before Sunday's convention. People should be free to make their own choices, she said. She maintains that Caucus for Change is not about getting rid of Silva.

In Q&As posted on the city DFL website, however, nearly all of the Caucus for Change candidates expressed dissatisfaction with the vote to extend Silva's contract. Two candidates — Robert McClain and Pa Chua Vang — said the decision should have been postponed until after the election, while three others — Steve Marchese, Al Oertwig and Claudia Swanson — said they would have limited the extension to a year or less.

Zuki Ellis offered perhaps the most pointed criticism of Silva, saying: "She's completely unapologetic about everything she does, even when plans have failed or gone wrong, or have unintended effects that directly impact classroom learning."

As for the incumbents, Hardy said in the Q&A that he felt "very good" about extending the contract of a national leader. Doran said Silva "developed a strategic plan that is measurable and financially sustainable." Carroll noted how the board and Silva work as a team.

At City Hall, Mayor Chris Coleman said that Silva is doing good, productive work. Despite her flirtation with Florida, "I'm 100 percent certain that the superintendent is engaged and committed to this district," he said.

Last week, when Coleman summoned civic and business leaders to meet with Silva in an effort to persuade her to stay in the district where she's worked for nearly 30 years, she was told the community was behind her, he said.

"I think sometimes you hear the voices against you a lot louder than the voices that are for you," he said.

Coleman has endorsed Doran, and while he has not made other formal declarations, he is supportive of challenger Jon Schumacher, too.

Mgeni, who has yet to decide for whom he will vote on Sunday, said he has received calls from six candidates — Rafael Espinosa, Marchese, McClain, Oertwig, Schumacher and Mary Vanderwert — generating long conversations and "time well spent."

As of this week, he had yet to hear from an incumbent.

Anthony Lonetree • 651-925-5036