Analysis: Pawlenty’s one-man stand has its risks

On Friday, Americans for Tax Reform, a high-profile anti-tax group in Washington, D.C., had a headline up on its website: "Governor Tim Pawlenty: Hero of the Taxpayer."

The tribute was Pawlenty's instant reward for a risky decision.

A day earlier, declaring that he would do himself what the Legislature could not, Republican Pawlenty had informed lawmakers he would balance the state budget single-handedly if need be -- and without a tax increase that the DFL majorities sought, as part of the solution to a historic deficit, throughout the legislative session that ended last night.

Pawlenty said he would sign bills already sent to him, but use line-item vetoes and a process called unallotment to cut spending.

"It was an invigorating move for his political allies and for his conservative constituencies, particularly the business community," said Chris Georgacas, a former chair of the state Republican Party. "It was understandable and consistent with where he has been in 6 1/2 years as governor."

Pawlenty's ultimatum reshaped session-ending negotiations. It may also mean that he will have taken almost sole ownership of budget cuts that cities say will force them to pull cops off the streets and hospitals say will force them to cut vital programs and thousands of jobs.

The move comes amid continuing speculation about Pawlenty's political plans, whether he is running for reelection in 2010 or setting himself up for a bid for national office. In part, Pawlenty is betting on a vigorous economic recovery to boost state revenues and reduce the kinds of cuts he might have to make. But given the potential pain that could be felt by a broad range of Minnesotans, the go-it-alone strategy that delights anti-tax conservatives could carry risks for someone intending to seek a third term.

Pawlenty was elected with less than a majority in each of his previous two races.

"Making decisions solely based on what may happen four or eight years from now can be risky. He's better off focusing on his current job and letting the rest take care of itself," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report in Washington. "The best thing for Governor Pawlenty's long-term political career is to be the best governor of Minnesota he can be."

Lesson learned in 2005?

History will show that DFLers in both the House and Senate approved this year's spending bills early (and boasted about getting their jobs done). But Pawlenty employed a form of political jiujitsu against them, using what had been their strength against them.

Only the Legislature can pass spending measures. But once it did so, Pawlenty had the option of resculpting the budget on his own.

It was a different story in 2005. When the DFL Senate and Pawlenty failed to agree on spending bills, Pawlenty presided over a partial government shutdown and finally proposed to raise revenue on cigarettes through what he called a health-impact fee. He was pilloried by conservatives for violating his no new tax pledge and suffered political damage for shuttering some state agencies.

Dean Johnson, the former Senate majority leader who orchestrated DFL strategy in 2005, said Monday that Pawlenty is a good student who rarely makes the same mistake twice.

"Mr. Pawlenty still is trying to repair some of the burn mark from putting a cigarette fee into place and a government shutdown last time around," Johnson said. "He is saying, 'I'm not going that route again.' "

In the months ahead, Democrats could stand back and let Pawlenty take the heat or they could work with Pawlenty to ease the potential pain of unallotment. Johnson said he could envision Pawlenty agreeing to a one- or two-day special legislative session to reach compromise before painful unallotments take place after June 30, the end of the fiscal year.

"He [Pawlenty] does not want a free-for-all, he does not want a government shutdown, he does not want any mischief," Johnson said.

Other Republicans torn

Whether Pawlenty's move will damage other Republicans is unclear. The party has consistently lost legislative seats during his tenure. When Pawlenty took office in January 2003, there were 31 Republicans in the 67-member Senate and an 81-Republican majority in the 134-member House. This year, there were 21 Republicans in the Senate and 47 in the House.

Depending on the impact of Pawlenty's decision, some see moderate county commissioners overseeing local hospitals or city council members hit by local government aid cuts deciding that the Capitol is the problem, labeling themselves as reform-minded DFLers and running for the Legislature in many swing districts.

When Rep. Kim Norton was contemplating running for the state House, she actually was conflicted about whether she would seek the Republican or DFL endorsement. A moderate who grew up in a fiscally conservative family, she eventually decided to run as a DFLer in her Rochester district. She sees many moderate Republican colleagues struggling with their votes at home and their loyalty to Pawlenty.

"They don't want to hurt their local hospitals, but by standing by their governor they are," Norton said. "The governor has a different agenda. I don't even know if he's planning on being here to deal with the impact of the decisions he's making."

Mark Brunswick • 651-222-1636