Continued: DFLers fall short of veto-proof House majority

Despite having the political wind at their backs, Minnesota's House DFLers conceded early Wednesday that they had failed to expand their majority and win a veto-proof majority against Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher said that, even with a smattering of legislative races still hanging in the balance, DFLers would fall short of gaining the five seats necessary for a 90-vote, veto-proof majority. "I think, honestly, it appears it's a gain of two overall," Kelliher said shortly before 2 a.m. She said there was an outside chance DFLers would gain a third seat when the final ballots were tallied.

Election night unfolded with signs that the DFL's goal would be difficult to reach. By late Tuesday evening, DFLers had gained seats in places as far-flung as Andover, Owatonna and Eagan but had lost seats to the Republicans in Blaine and La Crescent -- leaving them with at best a two-seat net gain in the early returns.

"We're kind of swapping seats," said House Minority Leader Marty Seifert. "I think it will be impossible for them to get the 90 votes to override the governor's veto."

As the two parties traded political punches into the night, some familiar names rose and fell. In Edina, 18-year incumbent Ron Erhardt -- running as an independent after losing the Republican endorsement -- was ousted. Lynn Wardlow, the Republican whose Eagan seat was once held by Pawlenty, likewise lost. And former Minnesota Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer is returning to politics, this time as a Republican House member from Big Lake.

The DFL push to gain five more seats in the House, though largely overshadowed by the many high-profile races on the ballot, was being closely watched by both parties and political experts. For average Minnesotans, the outcome could shape how the Legislature tackles a likely daunting budget shortfall next year and determine whether tax increases are part of the plan to deal with it.

Continued DFL domination of the House also would present a formidable political challenge for Pawlenty, who remains the most popular Republican in Minnesota and is coming off a summer in which he was on a short list to be presidential nominee John McCain's running mate.

In recent days, Kelliher, DFL-Minneapolis, had increasingly seemed less sure that a veto-proof majority was attainable. Kelliher -- and other independent experts -- cautioned that the DFL had made significant gains two years ago in traditionally Republican areas and holding onto those gains this year would in itself be challenging.

"Our focus is on governing the state, and not on a number right now," Kelliher said Tuesday before the polls closed. "I'm not sure what that will add up to tonight."

To Kelliher and the DFL, the more realistic goal will be to stay at or near the 85 seats they now hold -- a position that would still enable them to team with just a few Republicans to make a veto override possible.

Trading places

The DFL did have some unexpected victories, including one in Owatonna, where DFLer Kory Kath, a public school instructor, won a seat that was held by outgoing Republican Connie Ruth.

But Red Wing chalked up a point for Republicans, as candidate Tim Kelly unseated Rep. Sandy Wollschlager, DFL-Cannon Falls. Wollschlager admitted she was feeling "nervous'' Tuesday "because there's been some negative direct mail in the district.''

Kelly said being labeled one of the key races in the state produced some pressure, and it was a challenging campaign.

"We knew it would be close,'' said Kelly, a school board member from Red Wing. "I'm surprised at how tough it was.''

Kelly received a visit from Pawlenty and said he was always clear about what was at stake. "I knew this would be an important race because of the possibility of a possible [DFL] veto-proof majority,'' he said.

As early returns began coming in Tuesday, Seifert said he was monitoring five legislative seats that hold potential for a Republican victory -- in Red Wing, Thief River Falls, Apple Valley, Blaine and near Winona.

"These are the seats we feel we have a great shot at,'' Seifert said.

Competitive seats

A study released by two political analysts at the University of Minnesota, which called the DFL's veto-proof majority bid the "biggest sleeper story" in Minnesota this election, nonetheless concluded that the odds were against it happening. DFLers, the study noted, were defending 27 seats that the party won by less than 10 percentage points in 2006.

In Apple Valley, DFL first-termer Rep. Shelley Madore was unable to keep a seat Tuesday that she won by just 195 votes two years ago.

In Lindstrom, another first-term DFLer, Jeremy Kalin, appeared to hold off a challenge by Don Taylor, the Chisago City mayor. Kalin won his seat by only 204 votes in 2006.

"It's been an interesting test that I think we're going to pass," Kalin said Tuesday, shortly before the polls closed.

Kalin said that a handful of conservative and business groups, including the Freedom Club, had targeted him, calling him a "tax and spend Democrat."

Larry Jacobs, the university study's chief author, said that three factors -- the number of open House seats now held by Republicans, a possible depressed Republican turnout Tuesday and a national political climate favorable to Democrats -- could turn an unlikely event into reality.

Should that occur, Jacobs said, a DFL veto-proof majority could affect everything from Pawlenty's decision to seek a third term to Kelliher's own gubernatorial chances. "Speaker Kelliher could well become the most powerful lawmaker in Minnesota," he said.

Senate also in play

Though it received scant attention, there was also the possibility for drama Tuesday in the state Senate, where two seats were being decided in special elections and DFLers could have lost their existing veto-proof majority.

But in order for that to happen, Republicans would have had to win both elections -- DFLers currently hold a 45 to 22 edge in the Senate -- and one of the races, for a Bloomington seat, went to DFLer Ken Kelash.

In recent weeks, Pawlenty had taken a visible role in campaigning for Republican candidates. His message stressed political balance, and he said a DFL veto-proof majority would usher in a "wide open, runaway train of bad ideas."

Pawlenty felt the sting of a DFL-led override in February, when the 85 DFLers in the House were joined by six Republicans in overriding the governor's veto of a $6.6 billion transportation funding bill, the signature issue of this year's legislative session. Faced with an emboldened DFL majority in the House and the Senate, Pawlenty last session issued more vetoes than any Minnesota governor since before World War II.

One of the results of the veto override was the independent candidacy of Erhardt, the longtime Edina Republican who voted with the DFLers on the override and was politically ostracized by his party.

Erhardt ran Tuesday as an independent, but lost to endorsed Republican Keith Downey in a three-way race that included Kevin Staunton, a DFLer.

"I would think [Staunton and I] split the votes of the moderate folks here," Erhardt said in assessing the results.