Tim Pawlenty: Party man with big plans

To both critics and admirers, Tim Pawlenty has taken on the appearance of a man with big plans for his future.

Despite being passed over last week as a running mate for John McCain, the Minnesota governor has been in heavy demand at the Republican convention. His schedule Tuesday included interviews with Fox News' Bill O'Reilly, CBS' Katie Couric and Newsweek, as well as a breakfast for 80 foreign ambassadors and their spouses at the governor's residence. A day earlier, he met with delegates from Ohio.

Pawlenty has publicly sidestepped talking about his future, and on a local talk show, when asked about not being picked by McCain, he said, "I'm not a person who gets disappointed."

But many observers believe Pawlenty's near miss has positioned him well for a future run at national office -- perhaps even the presidency. His national profile has grown, his shortcomings have been minimized and he has made connections to a vastly expanded network of potential supporters and donors.

"The sky's the limit," Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., said about the governor.

Political analysts, including those who believe Pawlenty has shrewdly built a career casting himself as a down-to-earth "Sam's Club Republican," said the governor must decide whether his plans include a 2012 bid for the White House, so he can figure out the best path to get there.

Running for a third term in 2010 offers one opportunity, the analysts said.

But Pawlenty may have nothing more to gain politically in St. Paul and could blemish his résumé if he were to lose a reelection bid. Seeking a Cabinet post should McCain win in November is another possibility, although experts said that Pawlenty wouldn't be qualified for the top positions such as secretary of state and that opting for a lesser post might not offer a suitable political platform.

A more decisive move toward a 2012 candidacy could emerge should Democratic nominee Barack Obama win the presidency this year, they added.

Even Democrats acknowledge that Pawlenty, who also met with the Republican Jewish Coalition on Tuesday, has made a move. "Clearly, his national profile is elevated," St Paul Mayor Chris Coleman said.

Pawlenty's rise is not without its detractors, with critics taking aim at his frequent out-of-state travels. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, a Democrat, said questions have been raised about "whether he's engaged in the job" of governor -- a criticism Pawlenty rejects as unfounded.

"It seems to me a lot of [his] decisions have been about the future of Tim Pawlenty and not about the future of the state of Minnesota," said Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who has announced her own gubernatorial run.

But the governor has continued making favorable impressions among Republicans this week. "He didn't come across as a politician," said Ed Mechenbier, a GOP delegate from Ohio.

"I think he's a rising star," he said.

Fred Gudknecht, a delegate from Pennsylvania, where Pawlenty has stumped for McCain, agreed. "I was impressed," he said. "He looked like a good candidate."

Fix political shortcomings

Part of what comes next is for Pawlenty to examine and fix political shortcomings that may have led him to be bypassed by McCain, said Steven Smith, a political science professor from Washington University in St. Louis.

Smith said there were few obvious reasons for Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be chosen over Pawlenty as McCain's running mate -- Pawlenty had more political experience, knew McCain longer and, relatively speaking, had a higher national profile. Pawlenty, of course, could not control that McCain wanted a woman, or that Palin's evangelical credentials may be even stronger than his. "I suspect that Gov. Pawlenty was upset," said Smith.

Pawlenty's immediate future means facing the mundane but politically tricky prospect of a 2009 legislative session that is likely to involve dealing with a large budget deficit, possibly with veto-proof DFL majorities in both the House and the Senate.

Matt Entenza, the former DFL House minority leader, said Pawlenty's best scenario would be for DFLers to win veto-proof majorities "and pass a budget without him." Otherwise, said Entenza, "he's got nothing but downsides" politically because he will likely share the blame for the state's budget troubles.

On another level, Pawlenty also must brace for the upcoming release of the federal report on last year's Interstate 35W bridge collapse, an event that some believe may have played a part in Pawlenty not being chosen by McCain. Others, however, see Pawlenty's handling of the disaster, including being seen as a compassionate leader and deflecting blame from his office, a sign of the political abilities of someone who won his office twice without getting a majority of the votes in either election.

Mike Kaszuba • 612-673-4388