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The map unfurled by House Minority Leader Marty Seifert covered the entire table, and he quickly began running his fingers over the districts where Republicans might gain seats in the Minnesota House in this fall's election. "I'm very optimistic about our chances," he said.
But in a private fundraising letter recently, Seifert sounded less sure, telling supporters that House Republicans are "five seats away from extinction."
With time running short before the September primaries, the stakes are high. Though they do not openly predict victory, DFL House leaders believe they are within reach of winning those all-important five seats, which would give them a veto-proof majority against Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty to go with the veto-proof margin DFLers already have in the Senate.
By contrast, in order to gain back a House majority, Republicans would need to pick up 19 seats.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher has expressed cool confidence.
"I don't really see a lot of places right now where there's tough sledding," she said. "There's no sort of place where I would say we're dialing 9-1-1."
The first test will come Sept. 9 when more than two dozen DFL and Republican House primaries will help shape November match-ups. Among those facing primary challenges will be Rep. Phyllis Kahn, the Minneapolis DFLer who is one of just four House members whose service goes back to the 1970s. Another is Rep. Jim Abeler, one of six Republicans whose vote to override Pawlenty's veto of a $6.6 billion transportation funding bill may have been this year's key legislative moment.
Republicans are hoping some large trends may help energize their party -- that DFL Senate candidate Al Franken's up-and-down candidacy might hamper the DFL overall, for instance, and that presumed Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's popularity has peaked.
Acrimony in Anoka
For some Republicans, the issue is not necessarily regaining a House majority.
"Getting the correct Republican on that ballot is what's important to us," said Republican Don Huizenga, a 42-year-old insurance industry official from Anoka who is trying to unseat Abeler, believing that Abeler too often votes with DFLers. "If we're just going to put Jim Abeler back in that Republican seat ... what does it matter if there's a DFLer in the seat?"
Abeler said he is trying to run a positive campaign but acknowledged some Republicans still are upset with his transportation funding vote, which among other things ushered in Minnesota's first state gas tax increase in 20 years.
In one sign of the campaign's acrimony, Abeler and Huizenga have clashed over Abeler's attempt to feature his campaign literature at a Republican Party booth at the Anoka County Fair. Abeler said the episode was, at worst, a "misunderstanding," while Huizenga wrote on his website that Abeler "almost came to fisticuffs" with a worker at the booth.
Abeler said focusing on relatively minor exchanges misses the larger point -- preventing DFLers from gaining a veto-proof majority in the House.
"It's always a bad thing when you don't have the give-and-take" that comes with a more balanced political split, he said. "That's not good when one side can do everything."
DFL infighting
DFL legislators are not without their own problems. Rep. Joe Mullery, a 12-year DFLer from north Minneapolis, faces stiff opposition from Jon Olson, a city park board member. And even House Majority Leader Tony Sertich is being challenged in the DFL primary by Marc Pocrnich, a first-time candidate from Hibbing who thinks Sertich has steered too much state aid money to Sertich's hometown of Chisholm.
"I basically got fed up with [his] strong-arm tactics," said Pocrnich. "A lot of people are telling me to keep pushing."
Kahn, a legislative institution from Minneapolis, is similarly facing an unexpected challenge. She is up against newcomer Joel Rainville, who is related to many longtime Minneapolis DFL leaders, including City Council president Barb Johnson.
While Kahn has drawn criticism for opposing a touchstone issue in her district -- a football field for DeLaSalle High School near her home on Nicollet Island -- Rainville has minimized the issue in interviews and simply states "it is time for a fresh perspective."
'World's smallest bully'
Rainville is being cheered on by John Derus, a former Hennepin County commissioner and DeLaSalle booster who fought Kahn over the football field. "It's like nobody has a right to run for this thing but her," said Derus, who is related to Rainville. "She's the world's smallest bully."
Kahn said the challenge has sidetracked her from her main goal. "I think what I'm irritated about is we really have such important work to be doing in terms of the whole ticket, in terms of trying to get to a veto-proof House," she said.
With an eye toward November's general election, Republicans are counting on their own fresh faces for help.
Tracy Leahy, who is black and Jewish, is a Republican running in St. Louis Park, hoping to up-end Rep. Steve Simon, a DFL assistant majority leader. "A lot of people say, 'You know, you're black, why aren't you voting for Obama?'" she said. "[I tell them] his things aren't for me.
Leahy, who has five children, is a former teacher at a Jewish school for girls. "I'm pretty focused on my race," said Leahy, who must first get past Darrell Brown in the Republican primary. "[Simon's] like Goliath, and I'm David.
"I understand the big picture. They want to take the House back."
Mike Kaszuba • 612-673-4388
Governor: Tim Pawlenty
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