Evangelicals form a coveted bloc for GOP

In a political world of paid consultants and professional spin artists, Kimberly Little stands out as an ardent amateur active in a presidential race for the first time.

"I'm extremely average," explained the mother of two from Maplewood. "I don't have time to be anything else.

"I'm really not doing a whole lot here other than prayer and a little bit of support."

Little is backing former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who, if he stays in the race, will be counting heavily on committed social conservatives such as Little for an edge over other Republicans in the Minnesota straw poll and caucuses Feb 5.

Little is an evangelical Christian who teaches her children at home. She is drawn to Huckabee by his strong support for home-schooling and his strong opposition to abortion. She contributed $450 to his campaign last summer.

But while Huckabee has won the hearts of many evangelical voters, he hasn't so far been able to attract a broad range of Republicans in his fight to overtake Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

With a week before the Minnesota contest, Huckabee is strapped for cash and lacking a win since his lead-off victory in Iowa. Should he falter again in Florida's primary today, some believe he could be forced to drop out -- or that some evangelicals may transfer their support to a second choice they think has a better chance.

Huckabee was expected to get a boost after the withdrawal of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. Huckabee blamed his narrow loss to McCain in the South Carolina primary on Thompson's success with some social conservatives.

An exit poll in South Carolina showed Huckabee with 43 percent of Republican evangelicals, McCain with 27 percent, Thompson with 15 percent and Romney with 11 percent.

Looking for a winner

Evangelicals are a formidable force in Minnesota politics. In a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll just before the 2004 general election, 31 percent of likely voters in the state described themselves as evangelical Christians. Among likely Republican voters, 53 percent described themselves as evangelicals.

That compares with the 60 percent of Iowa GOP caucus-goers who told pollsters they were evangelicals and propelled Huckabee to his only victory so far.

McCain's respectable showing with evangelicals elsewhere demonstrates that many of them will vote for a candidate identified with a broader range of Republican issues, said Dan Hofrenning, a St. Olaf College professor specializing in religion and politics.

"A lot of evangelicals are pragmatic, and they want to win," he said. "It doesn't do them any good to vote for Mike Huckabee if he can't beat any of the Democrats."

Hofrenning noted that Huckabee's populist message appears to play well with lower-income voters worried about the economy, but that his record on taxes and "anti-Wall Street rhetoric" would turn off many Minnesota Republicans.

"I don't think he'll have much appeal among people who are economic conservatives," Hofrenning said.

Those weaknesses provide opportunities for other candidates to win over Minnesota evangelicals.

"Some of the evangelicals who did not support Huckabee were looking at the big picture and realizing that Huckabee is having a very difficult time growing outside of his evangelical base of support," said Ben Golnik, the former Midwest regional political director for McCain and now a volunteer for him in Minnesota. "I think some of those evangelicals who were with Fred [Thompson] may move to McCain."

Shortly after news broke of Thompson's withdrawal, other Republican candidates began courting his Minnesota supporters -- evangelical or otherwise.

"Within an hour ... I had solicitations from McCain's, Huckabee's and Romney's camp," said Rep. Marty Seifert, R-Marshall, the House minority leader who ran Thompson's Minnesota campaign.

Some Thompson supporters are worth more to a campaign than others. They included Robert Cummins of Deephaven, president of Primera Technology. While he gave a mere $1,000 to Thompson's campaign, Cummins has contributed $323,000 since early 2005 to Minnesota Citizens in Defense of Marriage and the related Minnesota for Marriage, which were pushing for a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and civil unions.

Cummins did not return phone messages last week asking whom he would support after Thompson dropped out.

'Our strong guy'

Minnesota supporters of Huckabee hail his stances against abortion and same-sex marriage. The Rev. David Watkins of Heritage Baptist Church in Blaine isn't convinced that Romney or McCain are sufficiently steadfast in their opposition to abortion.

"Does the value system shift from week to week?" Watkins asked. "With Huckabee, I don't think it does. With others, I feel like it's more of a lick your finger and stick it in the air and see which way the wind's blowing."

Like Watkins, Little respects and likes some aspects of McCain but perceives him to be less committed to social issues than Huckabee.

She wouldn't vote for Romney, saying, "I feel like when push comes to shove he won't make the right statement ... about the things I take personal."

Pat Doyle • 612-222-1210