Minnesota Poll: U.S. Senate race wild and wide open

All three leading contenders in Minnesota's 2008 U.S. Senate race face obstacles in winning the favor of the public, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, suggesting a wide open, unpredictable contest in a campaign expected to attract intense national attention.

Fewer than half of Minnesota adults approve of the job that U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman is doing. More view comedian Al Franken unfavorably than view him favorably. And most have never heard of attorney Mike Ciresi.

The looming battle over Coleman's seat may be one of the most closely watched and unusual Senate races in the country next year, especially if Franken, a nationally known comedian who has already demonstrated prodigious fundraising power, especially among the Hollywood elite, emerges with the nomination.

With control of Congress potentially at stake, interest groups nationwide are already signaling that they are likely to pour money and time into the election.

Coleman is among the most vulnerable Republicans up for reelection in the closely divided Senate. His reelection, or replacement, could help tip key votes on policy in Iraq, health care reform, immigration and more, and determine whether a new president is able to work his or her will with Congress.

Coleman's 45 percent approval rating among Minnesota adults puts him well into the below 50 percent zone, considered a sign of vulnerability for incumbents.

Franken, who has been working double time to establish his bona fides among the DFL faithful, is viewed favorably by only 27 percent of Minnesotans and unfavorably by 34 percent. Fewer than half of DFLers view the political satirist favorably.

Ciresi, who ran for the Senate in 2000 and lost, remains unknown to 51 percent of those responding to the poll.

By contrast, Coleman's favorability rating is 52 percent -- higher than either of his leading challengers.

Large majorities of Minnesotans polled said they had never heard of environmentalist Jim Cohen or frequent candidate Dick Franson, the other two declared hopefuls.

The poll, conducted Sept. 18 to 23 by Princeton Survey Research Associates for the Star Tribune, surveyed 802 Minnesotans and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The error margin is larger for subgroups.

How the campaigns see it

Cullen Sheehan, Coleman's campaign manager, said the poll showed that "clearly Minnesotans remain favorable to the senator's leadership on issues and his commitment to working across party lines to get things done."

He attributed Coleman's job approval ratings persistent below 50 percent to "substantial attacks by Democrats and outside interest groups, and that's to be expected. There's lots of time left."

Ciresi's campaign manager, Kerry Greeley, echoed that last sentiment, saying that the more than 400 days left in the campaign would provide ample time to make Ciresi known. "When people meet Mike they see a leader who's been fighting and getting results for Minnesotans all his life," Greeley said.

Andy Barr, Franken's campaign manager, said that "Minnesotans are tired of Norm Coleman and ready for a change. The trend is in every poll, including this one."

Barr said that Franken's low favorable rating was the result of ongoing Republican attacks. "Al's been taking on the right-wing smear machine for a long time," Barr said. "When people meet Al, when they hear what he's done, I think they stop seeing the Republican Party's caricature and start seeing Al."

Each has a challenge

For his reelection bid, Coleman -- former St. Paul mayor, former gubernatorial candidate and one-time DFLer -- faces the biggest political challenge of his career. He is closely identified with an unpopular war and an even more unpopular president. By a significant margin, the poll shows, those Minnesotans who disapprove of Bush and the war also disapprove of Coleman.

"The political ground is shifting beneath his feet," said Steven Smith, a national expert on congressional politics and a longtime observer of Minnesota's political scene. "He came in during a pretty conservative era. People still like him, but public attitude on the war and the role of government in addressing problems has changed."

For Franken, Smith said, the poll may be showing an essential problem with "likability."His notoriety has come in part from cynical, humorous political commentary," Smith said. "And that seems to be creating some likability issues he needs to worry a little about."

The poll shows that Franken has high negatives precisely among those with whom he might expect to do well: middle-age boomers, college graduates and metro residents. In each of those categories, Franken is seen unfavorably by 40 percent or more.

Ciresi's biggest problem is obscurity. Despite having been the lead lawyer in Minnesota's landmark tobacco lawsuit and running a prior statewide Senate race, Ciresi is little known to many groups. Among outstate Minnesotans and those younger than 40, 60 percent of respondents were unfamiliar with him, as were 66 percent of those without a college education.

More than four DFLers in 10 who responded to the poll have never heard of Ciresi.

War, economy are factors

For loyal Republicans such as Joan Svendby, 70, of St. Louis Park, it is precisely Coleman's support of the war that has locked in her vote.

"Terrorists are trying to take over the world," said Svendby, a former library clerk. "You have to stop them someplace. Nobody did a thing until George Bush came along. Maybe it's a mess in Iraq, but at least someone is trying to do something."

Asked about Franken, Svendby started chuckling. "I say you've got to be kidding," she said. "I just can't picture a comedian, some guy who's like a big jokester, in the Senate." Ciresi, she said, "at least is serious. I don't know much about him ... I tend to vote conservative."

Marylou Pascoe, 57, of Eden Prairie, said she is solidly in Franken's camp. "I just like his character," she said. A fan of Franken's stint on the Air America liberal talk radio network, Pascoe said that "I love his passion for wanting to get it right. He seems to have tons of humility. He can admit when he makes a mistake. He did that all the time on the air. That's so refreshing."

An independent who says she has voted Republican on occasion, Pascoe said that Coleman "strikes me as a stereotypical politician who blows with the political winds. I just don't have any respect for that man."

Pascoe said she knew little about Ciresi and wasn't inclined to learn. "I'm very happy with Franken," she said.

Joy Wolf, of Northfield, said that Ciresi has made the biggest impression on her. "He's smart, he's capable and he's very eager," she said. Wolf said she'd actually been called by Franken one night. "That really surprised me," the retired librarian said with a giggle. "That actually got him a little place in my heart," she said. "I guess it wouldn't be so terrible if he got it. Anything would be better than Coleman."

Patricia Lopez • 651-222-1288

Patricia Lopez • plopez@startribune.com