McCain's ascension puts Pawlenty in glare of speculation

John McCain was firmly on his way to the Republican presidential nomination Thursday and Tim Pawlenty was on his way to Germany, to attend a high-powered global security conference at McCain's invitation.

The prestige assignment from a man who now is only a step away from the presidency is fueling yet another burst of speculation that Pawlenty could be headed for a national nomination of his own -- as McCain's running mate.

But how likely is that, really? In truth, no one can say. But few observers who understand the strategy of running-mate choices dismiss Pawlenty's chances altogether, and a list of veep contenders can hardly be found within the beltway or across the blogosphere that doesn't include the Minnesota governor's name somewhere in the mix.

Most observers would agree that McCain doesn't even have a list at this point, let alone a proverbial short one. But Dan Schnur, who was communications director for McCain's 2000 presidential campaign, said it might be wise for the McCain camp to work quickly to name a running mate.

Schnur also advised considering a governor, particularly to shore up support from conservatives who strongly backed Mitt Romney against McCain.

"There's a lot of strategic value in McCain balancing the ticket with a conservative governor, and [Pawlenty] is one of those," said Schnur, now a political science lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley.

Other governors frequently mentioned include Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mark Sandford of South Carolina and Sonny Perdue of Georgia, Schnur said.

'Vice presidency frenzy'

Pawlenty, national co-chair of McCain's campaign, was an early supporter who stuck with the Arizona senator in his campaign's darkest days last summer. He has campaigned for McCain throughout the triumphant comeback of the past six weeks in Michigan, New Hampshire, Illinois and Florida.

Many considerations come into play in selecting a running mate. As a way to embrace this year's thematic sentiment for "change," does McCain look for a governor rather than a Washington veteran to signal he is a reformer?

Would McCain risk alienating the more conservative wing of the party in order to reinforce his own moderate image by picking a centrist?

"No Minnesota parochialism there at all, you put together a list of ... candidates who kind of give you all the options, and Pawlenty would be on my list," said Norman Ornstein, resident scholar of the American Enterprise Institute and a Minnesota native.

Ornstein said two governors stand out as potential running mates: Pawlenty and Florida's Charlie Crist. He suggested the announcement of a McCain running mate might be held back to create drama for the Republican National Convention in St. Paul in September.

Predicting what he called a "vice presidency frenzy" for the next six months in which Pawlenty's name would be included, Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, cautioned about the history of presidential nominees pulling surprises in picking their vice presidents.

Dick Cheney, for instance, headed a vice presidential search committee that ultimately decided on President Bush's perfect running mate: Dick Cheney.

Journalists and analysts "look at this from the point of view of who is a logical fit," Rothenberg said, "and sometimes it is a logical fit -- and sometimes it's an Al Gore, who was from a neighboring state, the same demographic, seemed not to add anything to the [Clinton] ticket," Rothenberg said.

One blockbuster possibility for McCain, Rothenberg said, is self-described Democratic-independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

"Talk about reaching across the aisle. Talk about trying to get swing voters and independents and sending a message that isn't your father's Republican presidential nominee," Rothenberg said. "Joe Lieberman would do that, especially after he's been the Democratic vice presidential nominee [with Gore]."

Brian Sullivan, a Minnesota member of the Republican National Committee and a Romney supporter, said he sees a scenario in which Romney could become the running mate.

"The acrimony between [McCain and Romney] is overblown," Sullivan said. "Things get said in the heat of battle, but at some point, you focus on the bigger picture."

The one frequently mentioned running mate hopeful Sullivan dismisses is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won strongly in the South, but who is reviled by the party's fiscal conservatives.

"Huckabee alienates as many conservatives as he motivates," Sullivan said. "It would be a net negative."

Even critics talking

Even Minnesota Democrats were talking about Pawlenty's vice-presidential prospects in recent days.

Despite Pawlenty's role as co-chairman of McCain's national committee, McCain finished poorly in Minnesota in Super Tuesday voting. Noting that, the Minnesota DFL Party on Thursday issued a satiric press release touting Pawlenty as an ideal addition to a McCain ticket.

Also joking about McCain's showing in Minnesota, the Minnesota blog MnPublius.com ran a headline: "Sorry Timmy, but it looks like you are stuck with us."

But Schnur, the former McCain communications director, said that Romney did well in all caucus states and that the McCain campaign's persistent financial problems were more likely the reason for his poor Minnesota showing.

"In the context of this story, that probably won't be held against Pawlenty," Schnur said.

McCain and Pawlenty have consistently dismissed speculation about Pawlenty's future role, saying they've never discussed it. Pawlenty deflected it again this week. But McCain's campaign has sometimes quietly promoted Pawlenty as being on the short list.

Illinois Republicans were scrambling to line up replacements after Rudy Giuliani quit his presidential campaign and bailed on scheduled speeches before the primary there. McCain campaign officials offered up Pawlenty.

"I just know the talk around the campaign was that the governor was at least in consideration," said Illinois State Rep. Dan Brady, co-chair of the McCain campaign in Illinois. "I was told that the governor was coming in to do that per [McCain's] request and that he's being talked about as a possible running mate. It was campaign people and people on a higher rung of the ladder of the campaign than I am."

Staff writer Patricia Lopez contributed to this story

Mark Brunswick • 651-222-1636