For Walz, reelection race is in full swing

REDWOOD FALLS, MINN. - In the smothering heat just outside of town last week, a full 15 months before the 2008 elections, candidates were working the crowd gathered for Farmfest, one of the state's biggest annual gatherings of farmers.

Making his way through the crowd one handshake at a time was Tim Walz, the First District freshman Democratic congressman who scored an upset victory last November. Doing the same thing a few feet away was Republican Mark Meyer, a lawyer and school-board member from Lake Crystal who would like to turn the tables on Walz next November.

"The campaign seems like it never ends," Walz said. "Before I won, I didn't give that a whole lot of thought."

Walz started his long-shot bid 22 months before he won, precisely the timing Meyer used in January. Meyer is one of at least four Republicans vying to knock off the incumbent.

Said Meyer: "I'm doing this 20 hours a week, balancing raising a family, making a living and running for Congress."

The so-called permanent campaign no longer applies only to presidential politics. It has seeped into congressional races, especially where the incumbent is serving a first term and is viewed as vulnerable as he or she will ever be.

James Bonham, a longtime Democratic campaign operative-turned-lobbyist, calls the First District "a natural place for the opposition party to look for a win. And when you have a major change election like 2006, there's a lot of pent-up demand among people who want higher office."

Walz wasn't supposed to pose much of a threat to six-term incumbent Gil Gutknecht in 2006.

Yet in a district that was widely viewed as comfortably Republican, Walz, a Mankato school teacher, ended up winning 53 percent of the vote.

"Remember, you had a lot [of Republicans] standing in line behind Gil Gutknecht," said Bonham, who advised Walz's campaign. "Ambition surfaces very quickly."

In addition to Meyer, other Republicans who would like to face off against Walz are Sen. Dick Day of Owatonna, Rep. Randy Demmer of Hayfield and Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis.

All four have attended a candidate school run by the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has made Walz one of its prime 2008 targets.

The First District, which runs along Minnesota's southern tier of counties, is one of a dozen districts, most of them represented by freshmen, where the NRCC has run radio ads trying to lash "so-called moderate members and their liberal speaker, Nancy Pelosi."

'Twinkle Toes'

The GOP campaign committee also dubbed Walz "Twinkle Toes" in an Internet video that says, in part, "on the campaign trail, Tim Walz danced around the issues."

The state GOP has kept up the attack on Walz, as recently as Friday in a news release accusing him of repeatedly supporting pork-barrel legislation. "Walz promised to change Washington, but it is once again clear that Washington has changed Walz for the worse."I don't think any of that is very damaging," Walz said. "Targeting me like this probably does more to help me than anything. It brings more attention to the district, which is good."

One reason he's shrugging off the GOP's aggressiveness is that his party, and organized labor, have come to his aid.

Union gives a pat to Walz

Earlier this year, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees aired television ads on behalf of Walz and eight other Democratic freshmen, praising them for supporting the recently enacted increase in the minimum wage. The tagline: "It's hard to change Washington, but Tim Walz is off to a good start."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is doing its part on behalf of its most vulnerable members, which it has dubbed its "Frontline" candidates. Walz and 24 of his fellow freshmen are on the committee's list, and party leaders, Pelosi among them, have attended a series of fundraisers for them.

Party leaders also have helped Walz attain a high profile. Shortly after being sworn in, he was chosen to deliver the rebuttal to one of President Bush's Saturday radio addresses. Bolstered by his long service in the Minnesota National Guard, Walz became one of the most visible House members speaking against the Iraq war. Most recently, he was installed as chairman of the freshman Democratic class.

Last year's election, in which 30 Democrats took out Republican incumbents, fits a pattern of past majority-making elections. In the Republican sweeps of 1966 and 1994, about half of the beaten Democrats were freshmen. Roughly the same pattern occurred when the Democrats won the upper hand in 1974 and 1982.

Winning 2nd time is tricky

But such sweeps don't guarantee long-term success, especially for new members who rode the tide to victory in districts where the opposition party is strong. For example, in 1996, two years after the GOP took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, a dozen GOP freshmen were defeated.

"Look at '96, after the Democrats had lost the majority," Bonham said. "Very quickly a lot of Democratic challengers were lining up to go after [the Republican] freshmen. It's been going on like that for a long, long time."

Walz is, for now, the only one of Minnesota's three freshmen with potentially vigorous opposition, largely because, in Meyer's words, the First "is really a purple district now."

By comparison, Rep. Michele Bachmann's Sixth District is deep Republican red, while Rep. Keith Ellison's Fifth District is solid Democratic blue. To date, no one has come forward to announce a challenge to Ellison next year, and only one DFLer has announced plans to take on Bachmann.

Combined, Walz's four opponents reported having slightly more than $176,000 in campaign contributions on hand as of June 30, compared with the nearly $454,000 Walz reported.

"I just want to be sure I have enough money to get my message out," Walz said.

Meyer, who has lagged in fundraising, said his only wish "would be to have more time and more money to do this."

Bob von Sternberg • 612-673-7184 • vonste@startribune.com