DES MOINES – For nine rear-end-numbing hours, Allan Frandson sat inside a historic theater and listened as a parade of possible Republican presidential candidates each tried to form a bond with hundreds of conservatives who will help determine their fate in the state's nation-leading caucus a year from now.
"Before too long, if I want, I'll be able to see these folks two, three nights a week," said Frandson, a real estate appraiser who lives in nearby Story City, after his day at the recent Iowa Freedom Summit. A Ted Cruz fan, Frandson liked the Texas senator's thundering speech; but he also found himself impressed by an Upper Midwest conservative from just next door, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.
Once again, Iowa political activists are gearing up for their quadrennial wooing by a procession of national political leaders. The presidency is up for grabs in 2016 after eight years of Barack Obama, who in 2008 catapulted himself from rookie U.S. senator to the White House, thanks in no small part to his upset win over Hillary Clinton in Iowa.
Now Clinton is gearing up to defend the presidency for Democrats, with four years as Obama's secretary of state on her résumé. The former first lady and U.S. senator's expected presence hangs heavy over other Democrats considering a run, and veteran Iowa Democrats say the race has been slow to take shape compared to eight years ago. Still, a handful of Democratic dark horses have already trained attention on the state, including former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Meanwhile, Republicans hungry for a presidential win after two consecutive losses are already aiming at the hearts and heads of Iowans.
Besides Walker and Cruz, that includes a handful of current and former governors who lined up for the recent Freedom Summit — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Rick Perry from Texas, Alaska's Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee from Arkansas; and other familiar names like former Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Sen. Rick Santorum, businessman and celebrity business mogul Donald Trump and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
Others are heading to the Iowa State Fairgrounds on March 7 for the state's first Agriculture Summit, an event designed to draw both presidential candidates and national attention to agricultural issues. Florida's former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio will be star attractions, while Perry, Huckabee and Walker all are expected to make a return trip for what is being billed by Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad as a premier see-and-be-seen event in the run-up to 2016.
So does Frandson actually intend to go see politicians campaign every two or three days for the next year? Really?
"Every chance I get," said Frandson, who described himself politically as "very, very conservative."
Upper Midwest advantage
Less than a year from now, Iowa will hold the nation's first caucus. In quick succession will come the New Hampshire primary, the Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary — a month's worth of contests that for both parties will divide the contenders from the wannabes.
For Walker, trying to parlay nationwide conservative acclaim for his confrontational approach to public unions, Iowa presents a unique opportunity. Like Illinois' Obama, he will try to harness his state's proximity to Iowa to give his campaign an early boost. Two Minnesota Republicans tried a similar Midwestern strategy in 2012, but both fell short.
Matt Pagano, political director for the Minnesota Republican Party, said Upper Midwest conservatives feel a stake in Walker's expected presidential bid. Many young Republicans from Minnesota and Iowa traveled to Wisconsin in the spring of 2012 as volunteers in Walker's successful effort to avoid recall.
"Minnesota conservatives are like Scott Walker's adopted kids," Pagano said.
In a way, Walker combines attributes of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who flamed out early in Iowa, and former U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, who won an initial straw poll of Republican caucus voters but saw her support collapse come caucus time.
Like Pawlenty, Walker has won statewide elections in a state that reliably backs Democrats for president. Like Bachmann, this son of a Baptist minister freely mixes religious references into his political speeches — though that hardly distinguished him from many of his fellow speakers at the Freedom Summit. He also has advantages both lacked: unlike Pawlenty, Walker has had a Republican-controlled Legislature backing his ambitious agenda. Unlike Bachmann, Walker's three statewide wins in four years demonstrate a solid crossover appeal that Bachmann never displayed.
"If you're not afraid to go big and go bold, you can actually get results," said Walker, who won governors' races in 2010 and 2014 and survived the 2012 recall.
On the Freedom Summit stage, Walker paced as he talked, shirtsleeves rolled to his elbows. He shifted between the political and the personal, noting his electoral success in a state that reliably backs Democrats for president but also thanking conservative Iowans for their prayers during his contentious, high-profile 2011 clash with public sector unions.
"In the darkest days, I can't tell you what a difference it made to us." Walker said.
Something of a breakout star at the Freedom Summit, Walker's fledgling presidential campaign has gained momentum since. A poll last week by Gravis Insights found him the top choice of New Hampshire Republicans, with 23 percent support compared to 16 percent for Bush, 12 percent for Christie, 11 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and all other candidates in single digits.
Waiting for Hillary
While Walker must try to rise above a crowded clutch of rivals, Democrats with presidential ambitions are toiling in the long shadow of Clinton. Widely expected to run, Clinton has already turned up in Iowa a few times in recent months, including at an annual steak fry sponsored by former U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin that's a must stop for Democratic contenders.
"The steak fry was crawling with Clinton volunteers. Even I was surprised by how many," said Bonnie Campbell, a former Iowa attorney general who also worked in the Justice Department under President Bill Clinton. Today, Campbell is a volunteer and spokeswoman for the Iowa chapter of Ready for Hillary, a fundraising group that functions as a campaign-in-waiting for Clinton.
Iowa caucus-goers have a long history of championing underdogs, and Campbell said Obama's 2008 Iowa surge took many Clinton backers by surprise — "including me," she said. Campbell views Clinton as even more formidable this time, but also cautioned against overconfidence.
"It's Iowa," Campbell said. "Anything can happen."
Several other probable candidates have started assembling an Iowa presence, including O'Malley, who just finished two terms as Maryland's governor; and Sanders, a liberal Vermont independent considering a Democratic bid. Even Minnesota's Sen. Amy Klobuchar has made several Iowa stops in the last few years, but Klobuchar — like Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken — is on the record as backing Clinton if she runs.
Last weekend, as a blizzard pummeled Sioux City, Penny Rosfjord, a nurse and chairwoman of the Woodbury County Democrats, ventured out to a coffee shop where a group of local activists threw a "Run Warren Run" meeting. The purpose: to persuade Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a new favorite of progressives, to rethink her repeated vow that she won't run for president next year.
About 25 people showed up, Rosfjord said. It was the first organized event for a possible Democratic candidate in Woodbury County of the '16 cycle, she said. "A lot of people want to know more about Elizabeth Warren. All the activists I'm talking to want to reserve judgment on anybody, until they see what's going to go on."
Patrick Condon • 651-925-5049
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