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Continued: How the stock market has performed after a stellar first half, and what may lie ahead

  • Article by: STEVE ROTHWELL , AP Markets Writer
  • Last update: June 28, 2013 - 5:40 PM

— 1987. First half: up 27.4 percent. Second half: down 17.4 percent.

In early 1987, investors were still enjoying a bull run that had begun in August 1982. Unemployment and inflation had fallen. Tax cuts and low interest rates had spawned an economic boom.

But things unraveled in a big way.

Stocks peaked on August 25, when the S&P 500 closed at a record 336. Rising interest rates and concerns about a stock bubble prompted a sell-off in October. That culminated in 'Black Monday' on Oct. 19, 1987, when the index plunged 57 points, or 20.5 percent, to 224.

— 1983. First half: up 22.2 percent. Second half: up 0.25 percent.

In early 1983, the great '80s bull run was just beginning. It had started the previous summer after the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate from 14.5 percent to 10 percent. President Reagan's tax cuts also got the economy going after it had contracted for much of 1982.

But the surge in stocks stalled in the second half. Investors worried that the expanding economy would revive inflation and compel the Fed to raise rates.

—1986. First half: up 20.7 percent. Second half: down 1.8 percent.

The factors that had given stocks a lift in 1983 were still in play. Also, falling oil prices helped lower the threat of inflation and allowed the Fed to cut interest rates. The price of oil dropped as low as $10.42 a barrel in March, after starting the year at $26.30 a barrel.

— 1954. First half: up 20.6 percent. Second half: up 26.2 percent.

The stock market was on its longest bull run, from 1949 to 1961. In 1954, an improving economy and rising confidence after the Korean War helped stocks. By November, the market had finally returned to its peak before the Wall Street Crash of 1929.

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