Poll: A state in play? So far, it's solidly Democratic

Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton enjoy comfortable leads over Republican John McCain in Minnesota, a state widely expected to be a hard-fought battleground in November.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found that Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 38 percent among the state's registered voters. Clinton leads the Arizona senator 49 percent to 40 percent.

Independents, who will almost certainly be crucial to victory in November, may still be largely up for grabs, as none of the three candidates can claim majority support among that group.

The poll also found that the economy has emerged as the top election issue in Minnesotans' minds, leaving the war in Iraq a distant second priority.

At this point, less than six months before Election Day, the Democrats are in a slightly stronger position in Minnesota than they are nationwide, where recent polls show them with considerably smaller leads over McCain.

Jason Ehresman, 38, a retail manager from Moorhead, said he has been drawn to support Obama because of "the way he speaks, the way he frames issues. It's hard to put your finger on any one thing that makes him so attractive."

Sheila Guerra, 40, a bookkeeper at a power boat store in Albert Lea, is leaning toward Clinton, but would be happy with either of the Democrats. "I'm still really on the fence, but I'm more in favor of Hillary because I know what she'd do in the White House," she said. "I'm just tired of this economy, tired of this war, so I could never vote for McCain."

Dawn Piecek, 45, a college student from Cold Spring, said McCain is her candidate "because the Democratic Party is just too liberal for me. Now, McCain's not exactly a conservative, but he's my best choice this time. And I think he's got a decent chance in this state."

Midwest battleground

Although a Republican presidential candidate hasn't won Minnesota since 1972, it has long been seen as up for grabs this time around, based on President Bush's strong showings in 2000 and 2004.

As a result, Minnesota has been considered the heart of a three-state Upper Midwest battleground region that also includes Wisconsin and Iowa. Recent polls in those states have shown McCain with a slight lead over both Democrats.

The poll of 1,203 Minnesota adults, conducted Monday through Thursday, has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among registered voters, the margin of error for the head-to-head election questions is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

The faltering economy has come to dominate all other political issues among Minnesotans, with 40 percent saying it's the one most important to them in their choice for president.

That's an abrupt change since the fall, when only 20 percent cited the economy as the top concern.

"It's got to be the number one issue, and Obama has said the right things about rescinding tax breaks for rich people," said Joe Abraham, 53, a salesman from Stillwater who supports Obama. "I hope if you get the oil men out of the White House, gas prices might actually go down. I mean, jeez, the economy couldn't get any worse than it's gotten."

Randall Cleven, 65, an athletic equipment manufacturer from Minneapolis, is voting for McCain. "I think he'll maintain the freeze on tax increases, and either of the Democrats will raise my taxes -- and I can't afford to have them raised," he said. "It's pretty simple. You don't overtax people."

In the fall, Minnesotans said the Iraq war was the most important issue in the race, cited by 23 percent. In the new poll, the war faded to second in importance, mentioned by just 18 percent of respondents. But those who cited the war are passionate, on both sides of the partisan divide.

"Our whole national security depends on things going OK over there," said Kathy Cutts, 59, a South St. Paul resident who supports McCain. "It scares me the way the Democrats talk about just pulling out. The Iraqi people need us there, so it's important to keep the troops there awhile."

"I've never agreed with the Republican policies to begin that war in the first place," said Clinton supporter Larry Leahy, 56, a carpenter from Coon Rapids. "The Democrats at least will give us a timetable for getting out of there. I understand how gas prices have everyone worried about the economy, but the biggest consequence of what a president does is in foreign policy."

More than half of those who said the war is the preeminent issue support Obama and Clinton, who have pledged to withdraw troops from Iraq.

Large majorities of Minnesotans whose top issues are terrorism, immigration or taxes and government spending back McCain.

How the campaigns see it

"It's a strong start for the campaign," said Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, Obama's Minnesota campaign chairman. "But we're working very hard now to build the grassroots effort we'll need not only to carry Minnesota for Senator Obama but to help our candidates for Senate, Congress and the Legislature."

Ben Golnik, McCain's Midwest coordinator, said the campaign will win voters over to the Arizona senator.

"Minnesotans clearly are looking for a change this year," Golnik said. "In this election the McCain campaign will show voters that John McCain is the candidate who has the toughness and credibility to bring about that change."

Hubert (Buck) Humphrey, Clinton's campaign manager in Minnesota, said the results are "similar to some polls I've seen nationally where [Obama] seems to do a little better. It shows in Minnesota people want change and it's not going to be a good year for the Republicans.

While Democrats have fretted over the party's drawn-out, bitter nomination fight between Obama and Clinton, the poll found that Minnesotans generally view it as a wash. While 38 percent say it's hurt the party, 50 percent have said it hasn't made much difference. Only 7 percent said it's helped Democrats.

Ehresman, for one, thinks the continuing Obama-Clinton showdown "is getting very close to hurting the party. It hasn't yet, but the longer and nastier it becomes, nothing good will come of it."

Democrats have tried to paint McCain's candidacy as a de facto third Bush term. Sixty-three percent of self-described Democrats say McCain would "mostly carry out the policies" of Bush, compared with just 15 percent of Republicans.

"Of course he won't just continue what Bush's doing," said Piecek, the McCain supporter. "Anyone who gets in there, Republican or Democrat, is going to have to make some changes. McCain has said he will, so I hope he'll follow through."

Bob von Sternberg • 612-673-7184