politics

DENVER -- Minnesota, the state with the longest blue streak in presidential politics, holds a special place in the hearts of Democrats gathered this week at their national convention.

It hasn't gone for a Republican presidential hopeful in more than a third of a century.

But Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean, the force behind the party's "50-state strategy," said on Monday that the campaign of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama can't count on Minnesota's 10 electoral votes quite yet.

"We never take Minnesota for granted," he said. "It's always been close."

Dean's comments came hours after former Democratic Rep. Tim Penny, spending time in Denver, announced the rollout of "Minnesota Citizens for McCain," part of a national group of independents and moderate Democrats who support the campaign of Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Republicans, holding their convention next week in St. Paul, certainly intend to put Minnesota into play.

And speculation about Gov. Tim Pawlenty's prospect of becoming McCain's running mate gets some attention from some Democrats.

"Perhaps that would make Minnesota more competitive," said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, noting that until now he has "not seen much evidence of McCain on the ground" in Minnesota.

Still, Obama Democrats in Denver know when a gauntlet has been thrown down. "They think that if they can beat us here [in Minnesota], they can beat us anywhere," said U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison of Minneapolis. "But you know what? They're not going to beat us here."

It's entirely possible for a Republican to win the presidency without Minnesota, but it's hard to imagine Obama going to the White House without winning the state. Minnesota hasn't gone for a Republican in the last eight presidential elections -- since Richard Nixon's landslide victory over South Dakota Sen. George McGovern in 1972.

"It's a must-win state for the other side," said Robert Duncan, chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

Recent polls have given both sides something to brag about, while producing more questions than answers.

Coming into the Democratic convention, Obama appeared to have a 10-point lead over McCain in Minnesota, according to a poll conducted by Minnesota Public Radio and the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute.

But a poll by SurveyUSA and another by Rassmussen Reports showed a much tighter race in the state, as in the rest of the country. Both polls, done in recent weeks, suggested a virtual dead heat in Minnesota.

A hard road ahead

Republicans also like to point out that while Democrat John Kerry won Minnesota in 2004, it was only by about 100,000 votes out of more than 2.8 million cast. And, they note, the race appears to have tightened this summer in Minnesota despite the fact McCain hasn't campaigned in the state.

According to Plouffe, McCain's absence is just as likely a sign that the Republicans are not seriously contesting Minnesota.

But while most Minnesota Democrats in Denver remain confident, they also talk about the hard road ahead for Obama and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.

"No Democrat is taking this state for granted, including me," said U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum, who, along with Ellison, was among Obama's earliest backers in Minnesota.

Going after the heartland

Democrats are using their convention to shore up Obama's heartland credentials, with speeches and images designed to appeal to working class voters hurt by the sluggish economy.

They also got a boost in recent days by an endorsement from the American Corn Growers Association, representing an industry that has hardly skewed blue in recent elections. Part of Obama's rural strategy comes down to this: While McCain has decried expensive ethanol subsidies that help farmers, Obama has been an enthusiastic supporter.

Although agricultural subsidies are hardly pivotal in a presidential election, they form part of the central economic argument that Democrats are hoping will give them the critical battleground states in the middle of the country, including Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Obama's campaign schedule leading up to the convention underscores the importance of this region, with stops in Eau Claire, Wis., the Quad Cities area of Iowa, and Missouri.

Plouffe said that the Obama forces are concentrating on two demographics that now make up a large percentage of undecided voters: independents and women.

McCain's maverick appeal can also play well with independents, as seen in Penny's initiative with independents and centrist Democrats in Minnesota. "We have demonstrated for a few decades that it is the swing voters in our state who are the balance of power," Penny said.

And as the Democrats rally their troops in Denver, Duncan, the RNC chairman, has his sights set squarely on Minnesota, where the GOP will get its turn in the national spotlight. "It gives us a great forum to talk to a part of the country that we need to talk to," he said.

Among those who will be listening is Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, in Denver as an Obama partisan. "Minnesota is a strong state for Democrats, and Obama has to do well there," he said. "But you can never underestimate the impact of a convention. It's good for us in Colorado. But it's a warning for us in Minnesota."

Kevin Diaz • 202-408-2753