Continued: State's politicians not rushing to pick sides

WASHINGTON - With Minnesota's Super Tuesday caucuses less than two weeks away, fewer than half the members of the state's congressional delegation have endorsed a presidential candidate. And it's likely to stay that way as long as the races remain competitive.

Experts and members themselves say that signing on with a presidential favorite while the contest is still undecided carries risks for a lawmaker, including the chance of alienating voters who prefer another White House hopeful or even of irritating a future president.

On the Senate side, Republican Norm Coleman has given his support to former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani, but Democrat Amy Klobuchar has yet to make her endorsement.

On the House side, Democrat Rep. Jim Oberstar is backing former Sen. John Edwards, while fellow Democrats Keith Ellison and Betty McCollum have gotten behind Sen. Barack Obama.

GOP Reps. Michele Bachmann, Jim Ramstad and John Kline have not endorsed; neither have Democrats Tim Walz and Collin Peterson.

"Endorsing in a race, you run a risk," Ellison said during an interview in his office earlier this month. "Invariably some of the people that you're trying to appeal to may not like that person who you've endorsed. ... Now a constituent making a decision at a ballot box has to decide: I might like your program, but you've endorsed this person who I don't like, so what does that mean about you?"

Endorsements reflect on the endorser, which is why many members of Congress won't endorse until a candidate appears clearly to be on the way to nomination, said Kathryn Pearson, assistant professor of political science at the University of Minnesota. "Most members of Congress will think about their own election before endorsing," Pearson said.

The Minnesota House members who have endorsed presidential favorites -- Oberstar, Ellison and McCollum -- represent the state's safest districts, which have elected and reelected DFLers for decades by wide margins. All the others, who haven't endorsed, represent more or less competitive districts, where an incumbent might risk losing some needed swing votes by identifying with a polarizing national politician.

"For Ellison and McCollum, as long as they endorse a Democratic candidate, I don't think it can hurt them," said Pearson. "Tim Walz, and to a lesser extent Michele Bachman, do have to think about their re-election."

Walz's First District in southern Minnesota is a competitive region that Bush won by a narrow margin in 2004. The same is true of the west suburban Third District, from which Ramstad is retiring at the end of his current term.

Bachmann's Sixth District and Kline's Second are Republican-leaning suburban-rural districts with strong independent streaks. Veteran Rep. Colin Peterson has represented the Seventh District in northwestern Minnesota since 1990. But the district went handily to Bush in 2004.

Planning to stay on the fence

Spokespersons for all the Minnesota House members who have not endorsed presidential candidates so far said they have no plans to endorse before Super Tuesday's primaries on Feb. 5.

It's not just Minnesotans staying on the sidelines of the presidential contest. Most leadership figures in the House and Senate have refrained from endorsing candidates.

In the House, the Democratic leaders, beginning with Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, "are going to have to work with whoever's president, in a very direct way," said Ellison. "So for them to stay out of it is perfectly legit."

Most leaders in the Senate have held back as well. The exceptions are backing home-state favorites. The assistant Senate majority leader, Dick Durbin, D-Ill., endorsed his fellow senator from Illinois, Obama; and assistant minority leader Jon Kyl endorsed his fellow Republican senator from Arizona, John McCain.

The courses followed by Minnesota's senators are somewhat more distinctive. While many of the delegation's endorsements come from members who face safe reelections, Norm Coleman's is anything but.

Faced with a tough road ahead, Coleman's endorsement of Giuliani may have served in part to help distance Coleman from the conservative wing of the Republican Party.

"Coleman, at the time, saw Giuliani as a somewhat moderate Republican," said Joseph Peschek, professor of political science at Hamline University in St. Paul. "Coleman tried to identify himself as well as being a moderate Republican."

Coleman and Giuliani also share similar backgrounds: former mayors of major cities elected in 1993, both native New Yorkers, and both "hawkish" on national security and terrorism related issues, Peschek said.

When Coleman referred to Giuliani as a moderate, he also was portraying himself as a moderate Republican, Peschek said. "He was perhaps trying to distance himself from the way that Democrats will try and portray Coleman this year: that he's a lock-step, Bush-Cheney, conservative Republican."

Klobuchar, meantime, has not endorsed a presidential candidate, even though she ran herself two years ago on a strong feminist platform and became Minnesota's first female senator with support from groups such as EMILY'S list, which also has backed Sen. Hillary Clinton's bid to become the first female president. Klobuchar doesn't face reelection for another five years, making it seem unlikely that any bad-blood from an endorsement would remain by the time she is back on the ballot.

One reason for her to sit back, Peschek said, could be that Klobuchar does not want to upset members of the Minnesota DFL, where she is considered quite popular and a rising star. In choosing sides she could offend some of her closest supporters.

"I think you would find that it's not uncommon for U.S. senators to not endorse somebody and just let the process play out," Peschek said.

Conrad Wilson • 202-408-2723