Pessimism on war solid; resolution more murky

WASHINGTON - Even as the Bush administration heralds signs of progress in Iraq, Minnesotans by almost a 2-to-1 margin say things are not going well for the U.S. effort to bring stability to the war-torn nation, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows.

But Minnesotans' disenchantment with the war -- echoed by polls across the country -- is not matched by overwhelming support for a quick exit.

Given an array of options, only 15 percent say they favor an immediate withdrawal, matched by 15 percent who would make no troop cutbacks until a stable government can be achieved in Iraq, a goal considered likely by only about one-third of the respondents in the poll.

Another 28 percent say they would like to see troop withdrawals begin this fall, with all troops out by next spring, a view that lines up closely with several Democratic initiatives in Congress.

But much like in Congress, there is no simple majority in Minnesota for any particular course of action.

A plurality -- 39 percent -- favors leaving a substantial number of troops in Iraq but with the more limited mission of training Iraqi security forces and targeting Al-Qaida leaders. That option is much in keeping with last year's recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, as well as with the goals laid out last month by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

It is also similar to the stated positions of both Minnesota Sens. Norm Coleman and Amy Klobuchar, although Klobuchar, a Democrat, favors setting a congressionally mandated timeline for troop withdrawals, while Coleman, a Republican, does not.

That, in recent weeks, has proven to be the most fundamental political divide on the war.

The poll, conducted Sept. 18-23, also found Minnesotans almost evenly split on President Bush's plan to withdraw 30,000 troops from this year's "surge" by next July. In all, 46 percent say Bush's plan "does not go far enough" to draw down troop levels. That number slightly exceeds the 43 percent who either say the plan is "about right" (32 percent) or "goes too far" (11 percent) to cut troops.

"People are torn right down the middle," said David Schultz, who teaches American politics at Hamline University in St. Paul. "They know it's not going well. Now we get down to the question of what do we really have to do, and that's where you get the polarization."

'Very ambivalent'

The poll, conducted a week after Petraeus' somewhat upbeat report to Congress, found Minnesotans' assessment of progress in Iraq little changed from January 2005, a time of increasing troop levels and insurgent attacks.

Asked how well things are going for U.S. efforts to bring stability to Iraq, 61 percent said somewhat badly or very badly, compared with 36 percent who answered somewhat well or very well. Almost a third of Republicans, 32 percent, say things aren't going well; among Democrats, the figure is 81 percent.

Among the respondents expressing optimism about the U.S. efforts in Iraq was Melissa Passeretti, a 38-year-old Minnesota National Guard member who spent 10 months in Iraq in 2005.

"I was there at a pretty volatile time," she said, "and it seems to be getting under control."

Passeretti, a St. Paul mother of four, said she believes the stakes are too high to leave, although she supports Bush's decision to scale back the troop surge. "People are addicted to quick fixes," she said. "It's all instant gratification. This is a long-haul thing."

Even among those who believe the war was a mistake, there are those who express mixed feelings about what to do now.

"I'm very ambivalent," said Timothy McNamara, a 48-year-old psychologist from St. Paul. "What happens if we pull out immediately? Instant failed nation."

McNamara, who opposed the war from the start, said the United States will probably have to maintain a presence there for some time, though hopefully in some diminished capacity. "I wish I had a good answer. Staying the course doesn't seem to work, but I can't pick another one. We're stuck now."

Nuanced view

Minnesotans aren't just downbeat about the current situation in Iraq. They take a decidedly bleak view of the nation's future as well. Asked how likely it is that the United States can establish a stable, democratic government in Iraq in the next few years, 33 percent say it is very likely or somewhat likely. Nearly two-thirds, 63 percent, said not too likely or not at all likely.

To Joseph Kunkel, a political scientist at Minnesota State University, Mankato, that pessimism reflects the growing frustration with the war in general. What is surprising, he said, is that it hasn't translated into a larger rush for the exits.

"It's interesting that the Minnesota public has a somewhat more nuanced view of it than the polar opposites on the national political scene," he said. "People see that there are no good options."

The numbers leave a cloudy message for policymakers and politicians in Washington: little support for the war, yet less than overwhelming support for getting out now.

The total of those who favor immediate withdrawal and those who would like to see all the troops out by next year adds up to 43 percent.

It's not a majority, but analysts suggest it's sizable opposition to a war effort that is now being billed as a long-haul effort.

Said Kunkel: "The big picture is you've got 43 percent of people who don't support the war, who want it over, or just want out. That's a pretty big number."

The poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates for the Star Tribune, surveyed 802 Minnesotans and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Kevin Diaz • 202-408-2753

Kevin Diaz • kdiaz@startribune.com