Hatch concedes to Pawlenty

Gov. Tim Pawlenty eked out a narrow reelection victory over DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch early this morning, and Hatch conceded the election at 10 a.m. today. It was a climactic finale to one of the closest, hardest-fought gubernatorial contests in memory. Pawlenty was leading by about one percentage point when the Star Tribune declared him the winner about 2 a.m.

Hatch thanked all of his supporters and said the common goal is to make a better Minnesota. He says he assumes he will return to private practice as a lawyer.

Hatch said it's too early to speculate the reasons for his defeat in the close race.

As one of the few statewide Republican victors in a Democratic state in the midst of an overwhelming Democratic tide, Pawlenty may have enhanced his national image as an up-and-coming star with a future in national office.

Noting Republican losses elsewhere and the fact that he will have to deal with both a DFL House and Senate, Pawlenty said about 3 a.m. that it was "a time tonight to be humble and time to be grateful."

He promised that "the next four years are going to be different than the last four years" and that he would build "a common agenda" with DFLers who swept legislative and constitutional offices.

Pawlenty was behind in most polls and no better than even throughout the month of October and in the final week of the campaign. Hatch was ahead through about the first three hours of vote-counting.

Pawlenty won by piling up big margins in suburban counties as well as in central and southern Minnesota regions anchored by St. Cloud and Rochester.

Hatch was running ahead in Minneapolis, St. Paul and their inner-ring suburbs. He had big margins in the DFL strongholds around Duluth and the Iron Range.

Opinion polling in the last week of an expensive, sometimes bitter campaign showed Pawlenty gaining on Hatch. Exit polls of voters as they left their polling places also showed the race within one percentage point.

Pawlenty's reelection means that Republicans will have control of the state government's executive branch for 16 out of 20 years, from 1990 through 2010. Republican Arne Carlson served two terms after being elected in 1990; Gov. Jesse Ventura of the Independence Party was elected in 1998 and served one term. Hatch fell short in his attempt to be the first DFL gubernatorial win since 1986.

Hutchinson trailing

Trailing a distant third was the Independence Party's Peter Hutchinson, who appeared headed for the lowest IP gubernatorial total.

At the IP celebration at the Hyatt in downtown Minneapolis, Hutchinson said he "proved a wonk could get people to laugh out loud and get all the yuks at the debates."We made promises that were fiscally responsible and that's never been done before. And we put together a team of statewide candidates that ran together and that's something we've never seen before."

He offered this rationale for his poor showing: "Jesse [Ventura] was bigger than life with 100 percent name ID, and Tim Penny [the 2002 IP candidate] had built a strong base as a Democrat in Congress from a Republican district. We didn't have either of those things going for us."

Themes and issues

As the incumbent, Pawlenty throughout his campaign tried to convince voters that he'd led the state through hard times, balancing record budget deficits without raising major state tax rates, without diminishing the state's "nation-leading" status on most socio-economic indicators.

Pawlenty also ran on "accountability and reform" in education, including merit pay for teachers and more "rigor" in high school academic requirement. In his second term Pawlenty promised to increase education funding and overhaul the traditional high school model.

Despite relatively high job approval ratings for Pawlenty and polls that showed more Minnesotans approve than disapprove of the direction the state is heading, the percentage of those favoring Pawlenty's reelection stagnated in the low 40-percent region for the last year. His likely final vote percentage, around 47 percent, was the highest level he's attained.

Hatch ran as a champion of a middle class that he portrayed as losing ground under Republican policies. Hatch and allied DFL interest groups have throughout Pawlenty's first term criticized him for causing higher property taxes, tuition hikes, and cuts in programs such as subsidized health care for low-income workers.

Hutchinson cast himself as a reasonable alternative to the ideological extremes of the DFL and Republican parties. He proposed major spending increases on education and transportation systems, all paid for by reducing the state's health-care costs.

Record spending

Exit polling showed Hatch running Tuesday stronger than Pawlenty among women, older voters and those making less than $50,000 a year. Pawlenty, a social as well as economic conservative, was doing much better than Hatch among regular churchgoers, those making more than $75,000 and among those with children in their household.

The campaigns and their allied independent groups have smashed all records for spending and TV advertising. Pawlenty decided after the Sept. 12 primary not to accept public financing and therefore not to abide by campaign spending limits. That decision removed the limits on the other candidates.

Independent groups, led by the labor union-linked Alliance for a Better Minnesota in behalf of Hatch, and the business-oriented group A Stronger-America-Minnesota in support of Pawlenty, were on course to spend as much as $2 million combined in mostly negative television advertising.

Spending by the parties, candidates and outside independent groups probably will exceed $10 million.

A couple of miscues in the last week by Hatch and his lieutenant governor running mate, Judi Dutcher, loomed large in the final days of the campaign. Dutcher in a television interview fumbled a question and displayed a lack of familiarity with the term E85 and issues surrounding the ethanol industry, a growing and important sector of the state's rural economy. Hatch compounded the gaffe by verbally abusing two reporters as he was being questioned about the issue. Hatch did not apologize but said his choice of words, including "Republican hack" and reportedly "Republican whore," were "inappropriate."

Hatch campaign manager Jon Youngdahl said the missteps "had an effect for a day or two but voters look at the issues and are very forgiving when people say they made a mistake."

Political observers may be speculating for years about what effect the late blunders had on the final outcome.

Dane Smith • 651-292-0164 • rdsmith@startribune.com

The Associated Press contributed to this report.