What to know on key races

The candidates have held center stage throughout the 2006 campaign season. Now it's your turn.

When Minnesota polls open at 7 a.m., you will be choosing a governor, electing a new U.S. senator, playing a key role in deciding which party controls Congress and even having a say in how tax money is spent on transit and roads.

Nationally, clues as to whether Democrats will make big gains or Republicans will hold on could begin emerging as early as suppertime; Indiana has three bellwether U.S. House races, and polls there close at 5 p.m. Central Time.

Locally, the suburban legislative races hold the key to whether Republicans hold onto their razor-thin majority in the Minnesota House.

Here's what you should know before you head out to vote today and as you follow the results tonight.

• Two ways to vote 'no': Minnesota ballots will carry a proposed state constitutional amendment to dedicate motor vehicle taxes to roads and transit. Because a majority of all voters must approve the amendment to pass it, leaving the question blank counts as a "no."

• Who's in control? To get an early idea of who will control the Legislature come January, watch the House results in suburban GOP strongholds such as Apple Valley, Burnsville, Eagan and Minnetonka. If the DFL picks off any of those seats, Republicans could be in for a long night -- and a long next two years.

The GOP now has a 68-66 House majority.

• Flip the ballot: After voting in the big races, don't forget to turn the ballot over to the nonpartisan races for judicial seats and local government and school board offices.

• Leader targeted: The DFL's 34-year hold on the state Senate -- now a 38-29 edge -- isn't considered at risk, but the majority could lose its leader. Sen. Dean Johnson, DFL-Willmar, is facing the strongest challenge of his 28-year legislative career over issues of abortion and same-sex marriage.

• Gender breakdown: Female representation in Minnesota's congressional delegation would almost certainly increase with either Patty Wetterling's or Michele Bachmann's election in the Sixth District. If Fourth District U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum is reelected, the female contingent would double. If Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar also prevails, it would triple. If Second District candidate Coleen Rowley wins, it would quadruple. And if Tammy Lee wins in the Fifth District, women would make up half of Minnesota's 10-person delegation to Washington.

• First on two fronts: If all those women aren't elected, Minnesota might gain another kind of diversity -- its first African-American member of Congress if Fifth District candidate Keith Ellison wins. He also would become the first Muslim in Congress from any state.

Watch the Hoosiers

On the national scene, Indiana holds some harbingers of the race for control of the U.S. House: In the Second District, Rep. Chris Chocola is a two-term conservative Republican in a district that gave President Bush 56 percent of its votes in 2004. Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly lost to Chocola last time by nine percentage points. This time, Donnelly has been ahead in the polls all year, but most recent polls have Chocola closing to within 3 to 5 percentage points. Chocola could win if, as Republican hopes hold, GOP candidates make a late surge and the historic Republican advantage at turning out supporters overcomes the national Democratic tailwind. If Donnelly beats him, it could be evidence that the Democratic Party is on a roll.

If that one is too close to call, two other Indiana districts could provide similar indicators of the overall direction. In the Eighth, six-term GOP incumbent John Hostettler has been trailing badly all year. If he upsets Democratic frontrunner Brad Ellsworth, it would be a sign that the Democratic bandwagon ran out of steam. The Ninth pits one-term GOP incumbent Mike Sodrel against Baron Hill, the Democrat who almost beat him in 2004. That one is rated a true toss-up.

Senate battlegrounds

If it's the battle for the Senate you're concerned about, earliest results for the key races is 6 p.m., when the polls close in Virginia. If Republican Sen. George Allen holds on against former Navy Secretary James Webb, it will be a major blow to the Democrats' overall chances for a majority. Likewise in Ohio, where the polls close at 7:30 p.m., but that one is considered a near-certain Democratic pickup.

The polls close at 7 p.m. in Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, all of which have reasonably close Senate races.

If the Republicans capture currently Democratic seats from New Jersey or Maryland, the GOP will keep control. But the Democrats are favored in those states, a well as in Pennsylvania.

The key ones from the 7 p.m. batch are Tennessee and Missouri. Recent polls put Republican Bob Corker with a solid lead in Tennessee. If Democrat Harold Ford pulls an upset there, it probably will mean Democrats are soaring nationally.

The Missouri matchup between Republican incumbent Jim Talent and Democrat Claire McCaskill may be the purest toss-up race in the nation.

If you have the results of all those Senate races, and the battle for Senate control is not yet decided, the last two key races are in Rhode Island, which votes until 8 p.m., and Montana, which closes at 9 p.m.

cdefiebre@startribune.com • 651-222-1673 eblack@startribune.com • 612-673-7294