According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!
The extended forecast into the middle part of July shows warm, summerlike temps continuing with highs warming into upper 80s and lower 90s. The GEFS model (top picture) seems to be a little warmer than the ECMWF (bottom picture), but they both show above average temperatures as we head through July.
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 6 people have died from lightning; 5 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and now 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 226 males have died, while only 63 females have died.
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been ONLY 571 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (through June 27th), which is quite a bit less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average.
Average Tornadoes in July By State
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of July by state. Minnesota sees the most with 11, but interestingly, Minnesota see averages 15 tornadoes during the month of June, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes in August, so we are still in our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.
1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Mon-Fri, Jul 9-Jul 13.
2.) Heavy rain across coastal portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Tue-Wed, Jul 10-Jul 11.
3.) Flooding possible across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
4.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
5.) Flooding likely across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains.
6.) Excessive heat across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Fri, Jul 12-Jul 13.
7.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Mon, Jul 9.
8.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Jul 11-Jul 13.
9.) High winds across portions of the coastal Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Tue-Wed, Jul 10-Jul 11.
10.) Heavy rain across portions of the central coast of southern Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jul 9-Jul 10.
11.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southwest, California, and the Central Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 14-Jul 20.
12.) Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Sat-Fri, Jul 14-Jul 20.
13.) Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the central and northwestern U.S., Sat-Thu, Jul 14-Jul 19.
Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Appalachians, Sat-Mon, Jul 14-Jul 16.
14.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
Temperature Anomaly on Saturday
The temperature anomaly across North America on Saturday showed cooler than average temperatures across much of the central and eastern US, while wamer than average temps were found across the the western half of the country including central Canada.
Here's the temperature anomaly as we head into the 2nd week of July. Note that the western part country will remain warmer than average, with pockets of cooler than average temps in the central and eastern US.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather loop below shows fairly active weather continuing across the Southern US locally heavy rainfall possible along the Coast. There will also be a strong to severe thunderstorm chance across the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain continuing across parts of the Southern US with several inches of rain and localized flooding possible there. Also note the heavier moisture in the Southwest... Monsoon season has started!!
Here is the national drought map from July 3rd, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. The good news is that the Monsoon season has started in the Southwest, so some locations should start to see improvement there.
Plenty Hot - But It Can Always Be (Much) Worse
By Paul Douglas
Friends living in Scottsdale are quick to remind me that "it's a dry heat!" In the immortal words of Jay Leno, "So is my oven. But still don't stick my head inside!"
We get a lot of grief for our winters, but we can always bundle up and go play in snow and ice. But when it feels like a furnace outside, there are only so many layers of clothing you can remove without police showing up.
My friend and former colleague at KARE-11, Paul Magers, explained last week on WCCO Radio what it's like to live in Palm Springs in the summer. "You get errands done in the morning or evening. You try to avoid afternoons, when it's so hot you can't touch your door handles!" Paul explained.
On Friday Los Angeles saw a record 108F. Many suburbs experienced 115F heat; smashing old records. Better them than us.
The core of the heat dome remains just south and west of Minnesota in the coming weeks. We'll see a few flashes of heat: 90F today; more 90s by midweek.
Good news for any farmers nursing drowned fields in southern Minnesota: the next chance of widespread storms won't come 'til Saturday.
SUNDAY: Sticky. Storms far north. Winds: SSW 10-15. High: 90.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a T-storm late. Winds: SSW 5-15. Low: 71
MONDAY: Few early T-storms, then clearing. Winds: N 5-10. High: 88.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Postcard perfect. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny with a hot breeze. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 90.
THURSDAY:A bit breezy, passing t-storm. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 70. High: 92.
FRIDAY: A whiff of dog days. Still humid. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 71. High: 91.
SATURDAY: More widespread showers and storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 72. High: 87.
This Day in Weather History
2002: A three-day deluge ends in central Minnesota with 10 inches in northern Kanabec county and 9.5 inches in southwest Aitkin County.
1974: Minnesota experiences an intense heat wave, with the Twin Cities reaching 101, the warmest temperature in 26 years.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 84F (Record: 101F set in 1974)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 51F set in 1958)
Record Rainfall: 3.07" set in 1925
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 26 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~1 minute & 11 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 11 Minutes
Moon Phase for July 8th at Midnight
3 Days After Last Quarter
Temp Outlook For Sunday
Sunday looks like it'll be a bit hot and sticky again as highs warm into the mid/upper 80s across the western and southern half of the state. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, it will feel more like the low/mid 90s during the afternoon.
According to NOAA's CPC, July 15th - 21st will be warmer than average across much of the eastern half of the nation as well as the West Coat.
"The Earth Is Farthest From the Sun Today, So Why Is It So Hot?"
"All-time heat records have been set around the world this week, in North American cities including Denver, Colorado; Burlington, Vermont; and Montreal, Quebec; as well as in cities in Europe and Russia. But here’s something that might confuse you: Today is also aphelion day—the day in Earth’s orbit that where it’s farthest from the Sun. What gives? I know that you, a Gizmodo reader, are well aware of how the seasons work. But maybe someone you know thinks that the hottest part of the year is when the Earth is closest to the Sun. So let’s break it down. The Earth travels in an ellipse around the Sun. At its farthest point, which will occur today, July 6 at 12:46 pm EDT (9:46 am PDT), the Earth will be 94,507,803 miles (152,095,566 kilometers) away from the sun. On average, it’s around 93 million miles (150 million km) from the Sun, and on January 3, 2019, it will be 91,403,554 miles (147,099,761 km) from the Sun. That’s not a huge difference, if you think about the vastness of space. Instead, the seasons are determined by the directness of the Sun’s rays, which is determined by Earth’s tilt."
"The real meaning of the 'dog days of summer'"
"The dog days of summer are known for being among the hottest of the season. Such days conjure up listless floating in the pool, scrambling to find shade and, of course, dogs panting even though they haven't been running around. It's too hot for running, after all. Despite the phrase's association with heat-struck canines, it has nothing to do with them. Well, it has nothing to do with earthbound dogs anyway. Summer under the star Sirius These hot days were considered among the worst in Western antiquity, a time when, according to folklore scholar Eleanor R. Long, "all liquids are poisonous, when bathing, swimming, or even drinking water can be dangerous, and a time when no sore or wound will heal properly. It is also a time when we are likely to be 'dog-tired,' if not 'sick as a dog,' to 'dog it' at work and 'go to the dogs' in our leisure hours-in short, to lead a 'dog's life' until the miserable period is over." Both the ancient Greeks and Romans noticed that the star Sirius — the dog star, Canis major in the Orion constellation — began to rise with the sun not long after the summer solstice. While this is often the hottest time of the summer, and publications like the Farmer's Almanac placed the dog days as occurring between July 3 and Aug. 11 each year, Long points out that Sirius doesn't rise and set with the sun until mid-August now."
"We’ve entered the era of ‘fire tsunamis’"
"Life in the Rocky Mountains is frequently extreme as blizzards, baking sun, and fires alternate with the seasons. But fire tsunamis? Those aren’t normal. On Thursday, one observer described a “tsunami” of flames overnight at the Spring Creek fire near La Veta in the south-central part of the state. And you can’t stop tsunamis. “It was a perfect firestorm,” Ben Brack, incident commander for the Spring Creek fire, told the Denver Post. “You can imagine standing in front of a tsunami or tornado and trying to stop it from destroying homes. A human response is ineffective. Pyrocumulus clouds, a sure indicator of intense heat release from wildfire, were clearly visible from 100 miles away. The fire is just five percent contained and covers more than 100,000 acres — larger than the city limits of Denver — making it the third-largest wildfire in state history."
"Is a massive tunnel system the answer to Houston’s flood woes?"
"Picture this: Another massive rainstorm overtakes Houston, but instead of inundating homes and businesses, much of the floodwater funnels into a massive underground tunnel system that whisks it away to the Houston Ship Channel. It may sound far-fetched, but it's one concept on the table as the Harris County Flood Control District begins to explore more creative flood control methods after Hurricane Harvey, when the Houston area became the site of the worst rainstorm in American history. Major rainstorms that brought widespread flooding to the region on Wednesday served as the latest reminder of how flood-prone the area is. The district hasn't offered many specifics on the proposal; it only just got the green light from county commissioners to apply for a federal grant to study the feasibility of digging miles of channels underneath the nation's third largest county."
"Heat Maps Reveal Record-Breaking Temperatures Across the Globe"
"Cities across the Northern Hemisphere witnessed exceptionally high heat this week, with records breaking in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Western Asia. Besides the long-term effects such temperatures may have on climate change, many of these weather milestones caused immediate hazards. And, according to the most recent weather data from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, the high temperatures are not subsiding. On Thursday, the temperature in parts of Northern Siberia reached 90 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the Washington Post. Northern Siberia sits along the coast of the Arctic Ocean, so it’s highly unusual for temperatures to spike 40 degrees above its average for the season. Other typically cooler locations also suffered during the hemispheric heat wave, resulting in damaged buildings and infrastructure, and in some cases, a spike in heat-related deaths."
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