A Plan B Weekend
By Paul Douglas
Instead of building a pipeline to pump dirty crude oil from Canada into the U.S. let's empower a Minnesota company to sell all this extra water to California, in the midst of historic drought. Not as crazy as it might sound at first blush, considering the extreme water imbalance setting up either side of the Rockies.
Just to be fair and balanced, June is Minnesota's wettest, most severe month of the year. Our heaviest rains often come at night, when swarms of T-storms bubble up along warm frontal boundaries. One such MCS (meso-convective system) may form this weekend; the best chance of torrential rains Saturday night into early Sunday. Some communities will pick up another 2-3 inches of rain and flash flooding can't be ruled out. Clouds and storms keep us in the 70s this weekend; no risk of a debilitating sunburn, but black flies & mosquitoes are dancing a happy jig.
We dry out Monday before more T-storms strafe the state Tuesday.
But I'm seeing signs that the jet stream may finally lift into Canada in 1-2 weeks. That could mean fewer storms, murky sun and more 80s in late June as the atmosphere finally shifts into a more summer-like mode. Yes, summer would be very nice.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, T-storms far western MN. Low: 59. Winds: SE 5-10.
SATURDAY: Humid, T-storms likely with locally heavy rain. High: 75. Winds: SE 15-25
SATURDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms with heavy rain. Low: 62. Winds: SSE 10-15
SUNDAY: More T-storms with heavy rain early. Breezy. High: 76. Winds: SSE 15-25+
MONDAY: Sticky sun. Overnight thunder risk. Wake-up: 61. High: 85
TUESDAY: Showers taper, some PM sun.Wake-up: 64. High: 81
WEDNESDAY: Tropical. Heavy T-storms late. Wake-up: 67. High: 84
THURSDAY: Shocker: more T-storms. Wake-up: 66. High: 82.
FRIDAY: Stuck in a muggy, thundery rut. Wake-up: 67. High: 81.
This Day in Weather History
1981: Tornado hits Roseville, destroying homes and damages Har Mar Mall.
1956: 8 inches of rain fell in the Ivanhoe area in 3 and a half hours. 100 thousand dollars in damage to crops.
1943: Torrential downpours cause flooding in the Twin Cities and east central Minnesota. 2.5 inches of rain fell in St. Paul in two hours. In addition, four streetcars were hit by lightning.
Average High/Low for MSP on June 14th
Avg High: 79F
Avg Low: 59F
MSP Sunrise/Sunset Times
This is about as long as our day gets here in Minnesota as we are just 1 week from the Summer Solstice, which occurs this year next Saturday, June 21st at 4:51am CDT. Enjoy the extra daylight while you can, sunrise/sunset times dwindle by the end of the month...
Moon Phase for June 14th at Midnight
2.1 days after the full (strawberry) moon
Friday the 13th Full Moon
Thanks to my good friend, Rich Koivisto out of Bullhead City, AZ for the picture below of the full moon rise on the evening of Thursday, June 12th. The moon was officially full on June 13 at 12:11am EDT making it the first full moon on a Friday, June 13th since 1919 and it won't happen again until June 13, 2098.
Jun. 13, 12:11 a.m. EDT: Full Strawberry Moon —Strawberry picking season peaks during this month. Europeans called this the Rose Moon.
Read more about the full moon names from Space.com HERE:
Minneapolis Temp Trend
Wet Weekend Outlook
A fairly vigorous area of low pressure will slowly work through the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Thunderstorms (some strong to severe) with heavy rain will be possible be Saturday and Sunday as the storm pushes east.
Weekend Weather Outlook
Here's a little higher resolution look at the weekend weather. Swarms of thunderstorms look to move through the Upper Midwest some of which could be severe. However, heavy rain and areas of localized flooding look to be a threat too.
Saturday Severe Threat
...EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FOCUSED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS STORMS GENERALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW. SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN.
Sunday Severe Threat
...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO OK AND TX... AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY RELATED TO A DYING MCS. SOME WIND THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FLOW FIELDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N. HOWEVER...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
Wet Weekend Outlook
According to NOAA's HPC, the 3 day precipitation forecast suggests nearly 1" to 3" or rain over parts of the Midwest. With the heavy bouts of rain expected over the weekend, there could be spots that see flash flooding or localized areas of flooding.
This was the scene from Pennsylvania on Friday as heavy rains led to flash flooding near Whitehall, PA. Thanks to @Shaggy_______ for the picture below!
Amazingly, we've had 2 major category 4 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific in the first month of the 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season! Never in recorded history have we seen 2 storms as strong as this, this early in the season in East Pac. basin. This was the view of Hurricane Cristina on PM Friday as a category 1 hurricane.
Ships and slow moving whales... that's all that have to worry about Cristina on her current track.
Sun Unleashes Double X-Flare
On June 10th, the sun unleashed 2 X-Flares. The end result could be widespread northern lights over the weekend. Unfortunately for folks living in the Midwest, substantial cloud cover will most likely result in not being able to see anything.
"Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation," Karen Fox, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center said in a statement. "Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground. However, when intense enough, they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel."
United States El Nino Impacts
"By this point, most of you have heard that it looks like El Niño is coming, and maybe you’re wondering why you should care. After all, why should it matter if the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average? That’s thousands of miles away from the continental United States. Well, it turns out that El Niño often results in changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature across many parts of the globe, including North America (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987, Halpert and Ropelewski 1992).
Many folks probably remember the heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides that occurred in California in 1982/83 and again in 1997/98. As the region suffers through a devastating drought, it could be something of a relief if we knew for certain that El Niño would bring similar soaking rains. But those two events were the 2 strongest El Niños in the past 60 years, and we’ve seen many other El Niño years where California didn’t experience those types of devastating impacts. So assuming El Niño develops, what can we expect across the United States and when can we expect it?"
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV