Soggy Next 7 Days ??
WOW.. According to NOAA's WPC, we could be in for quite a soaker over the next 5 to 7 days. Several different storm systems look to impact the region through next weekend with storms and locally heavy rainfall.
Severe Threat Monday?
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across parts of far southern MN as our next storm system moves through the region. Note that this risk area could change by Monday, so stay tuned!
Can Dogday Cicadas Forecast the First Frosts of Fall?
Fall Ragweed Allergies
AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers are having some issues now that the the fall allergy season is in full swing. Take a look at the forecast over the next few days and the good news is that pollen levels will take a bit of a hit thanks to rain in the forecast!
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 21st, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 3rd), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average like Huron and Rapid City, SD as well as Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its 2nd wettest start to the year on record with nearly 39" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 16th wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 3rd wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +8.76".
- As of 8 AM AST, Hurricane Dorian remains a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. It is moving quickly to the northeast at 25 mph.
- Hurricane Dorian is brushing eastern New England today with tropical storm force winds impacting Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts early this morning.
- Damage reports out of Cape Cod area have included down power lines and down trees.
- Dorian is heading toward Nova Scotia. As it continues to move to the northeast, it will likely be downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone. Even so, it will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later today.
Latest Imagery of Dorian and Track. Dorian is becoming less organized. It no longer has a well-defined eye and is under the influence of southwesterly wind shear. This system is quickly moving to the northeast and will be in Nova Scotia by later today. From there, it will be moving over Newfoundland then turning into the Atlantic. Although it will be losing its tropical characteristics, it will still be capable of producing hurricane force winds over far eastern Canada. The combination of the wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will cause it to continue to weaken in the coming days.
Current Warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings have been in effect for Cape Code and the Islands in southeastern Massachusetts. Hurricane Dorian has already made its closest approach to this area and is now quickly moving toward the northeast. Conditions will be improving in these areas later today.
Wind Gusts Today. Strong winds are lingering this morning. Some of those gusts have been in the 50-60 mph range on Cape Cod. Along the coastline of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the wind gusts have been in the 30-50 mph range. As this system pulls further away from this area later today, the winds are expected to diminish. Wind damage reports from this area this morning have included down power lines and large trees down. Check here for latest damage reports: https://forecast.weather.gov/
Typhoon Faxai Latest Imagery and Track. This storm is moving to the northwest at 18 mph toward the east coast of Japan with sustained winds of 121 mph. It is possible that it would make landfall near Tokyo late in the weekend. The coastal regions of central and eastern Japan could get between 7-15 inches of rain with this system. Rain is expected to begin Sunday afternoon. This is the 15th named storm of the season.
Gretchen Mishek, Meteorologist, Praedictix
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook as we head into the middle part of the month looks warmer than average across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.
Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the 3rd week of September, which shows up and down temps over the next couple/few weeks. It certainly looks chilly this weekend and early next week, but midweek temps could soar back into the 80s, which would be the first 80 degree high temp in the Twin Cities since August 20th.
Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP
Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September.
Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Wet Week Ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Meteorologists have a hard time keeping their eyes away from tropical maps at this time of the year. In fact, according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, the peak for tropical systems to spin up is on September 10th.
Dorian's path and warnings leading up to the event were predicted very well by many hard working meteorologists at the NHC and NWS. Forecasting isn't an exact science and it never will be, but it sure it amazing to think how far we've come over the last century to help keep people safe during life-threatening weather events.
Drippy skies work through the southern half of the state today, but that won't keep die-hard fans out of Minneapolis. The roar of the Gjallarhorn and familiar "BOOM" from my favorite purple and gold radio host sound at US Bank Stadium, while more "Bombas" shower the outfield bleachers at Target Field this afternoon. Let's go!
Be prepared for rain this week. There's a growing puddle potential
SUNDAY: Soggy southern MN. Chilly. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 62.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, but dry. Winds: E 5. Low: 55.
MONDAY: Dry start. PM storms & heavier rain. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 70.
TUESDAY: Drying out. Peeks of stickier sunshine. Winds: WSW 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 81.
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled again. More PM t-storms. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 80.
THURSDAY: Lingering rain and rumbles. Winds: WNW 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 78.
FRIDAY: Breezy and cooler with spits of rain. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 61. High: 69.
SATURDAY: Finally a dry day? Not as nippy. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 54 High: 75.
This Day in Weather History
1985: An F1 tornado touches down in Faribault County causing $25,000 worth of damage, and hail up to 1 3/4 inches falls in Freeborn and Waseca Counties.
1968: 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Goodhue County.
1931: A record high is set in St. Cloud with a temperature of 102 degrees Fahrenheit.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 75F (Record: 99F set in 1931)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 36F set in 1883)
Record Rainfall: 1.52" set in 1885
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 54 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 hours & 43 minutes
Moon Phase for September 8th at Midnight
3.2 Days Since First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Look for the planet Saturn in the vicinity of the moon as darkness falls on September 7 and 8, 2019. Saturn is actually a bit brighter than a 1st-magnitude star, but this world still might be hard to see in the moon’s glare. If so, try placing your finger over the obtrusive waxing gibbous moon for a better view of Saturn, the most distant world that you can easily see with the eye alone. For all the world, the moon is seen in between Saturn and the king planet Jupiter on September 7. Below, we show you a more expanded view of the sky that includes both Saturn and Jupiter. Although the chart is especially made for mid-northern North American latitudes, you can still find Saturn rather easily from anywhere worldwide. Look first for Jupiter – by far the brightest “star” in the evening sky, and that “star” on the other side of the moon on September 7 will be Saturn."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count