Strong Storms Rumbling Through Metro (wind gusts to 50 - small hail and urban flooding risk)
September 19, 2013 — 11:36am
Much-Needed Lawn Watering. NWS Doppler radar at 11:04 AM shows a line of strong storms pushing across the metro, whipping up 50 mph winds and small pea-size hail. The most severe storms are over the far north metro, NWS Doppler estimating 2.75" diameter hail east of Cambridge. The severe threat will shift into southeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin into the afternoon hours. Remember that a Severe Storm Watch is in effect until 4 PM, including the metro, but the severe threat for the immediate Twin Cities should ease after noon or 1 pm as the most unstable conditions shift south and east of the metro.
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Snow is on its way to the state as we head toward Sunday Night into Monday, and parts of southern Minnesota could see over a foot of snow. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect - click through for the details! - D.J. Kayser
It's complicated. Just once I'd like to see all the models agree on timing and amounts. Once. No such luck. NOAA models are pretty adamant about a major dumping by Monday, but ECMWF (European) models are trying to shift the heaviest snow band just south of the Twin Cities. That's about par for the course. We're not a lock on a foot of snow in the immediate metro, not yet. I'm hoping the storm crystallizes over the weekend.
Meteorologists may actually have something to track on their weather maps, after months of synchronized boredom and a parade of lackluster Alberta Clippers. The pattern has shifted, southern moisture will fuel a storm tracking just south of Minnesota early next week, and the result may be a significant pile of snow very close to home.
I know, I know. You've heard the hype before. It starts out with "looks like significant snow!" Within 3-4 days it's "looks like flurries!" I don't blame you for being skeptical. So am I. But the pattern has shifted, we are getting moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico with a storm track south/east of Minnesota, possibly favorable for heavy snow for parts of Minnesota. It could be a pile, very plowable for portions of central Minnesota, maybe the metro - although I still think something will come along to gum up the snowfall potential for MSP. We'll see, but at least there's a chance Sunday night into Monday.
We are transitioning to a somewhat milder, significantly stormier pattern in the days and weeks to come. Instead of being lashed by a parade of clippers whipping up powder and cringe-worthy wind chills, a more southerly flow could mean heavier (wetter) snow, possibly mixed with rain and ice at times. But at least we stand a somewhat better chance of accumulating snow - without subzero temperatures to complain about.