Extended Twin Cities Forecast
Fall Colors Reaching Past Peak
Fall color season is quickly reaching an end across the state, with many areas as of the latest update from the Minnesota DNR reporting colors near or past peak. In some areas, the leaves are raining down from the trees, especially with stronger wind gusts. Not the best of news if you were trying to go hunt down some fall colors over the extended MEA weekend, but there is still some color to be found out there! Get the latest information from the Minnesota DNR by clicking here.
Wouldn't you know it, but October has kept the wet weather streak alive so far across much of the state, with a good 2-4" of rain falling at the area climate sites, all of which are above average through the 16th. The area of the state that has received the least rain so far has been out in western Minnesota as well as parts of the Arrowhead. In the Twin Cities, the 2.77" of rain that has fallen through the 16th is the 19th wettest start to the month on record, and if we saw no more rain this month would be the 38th wettest on record.
And pretty much the entire upper Midwest conditions to be above average for the year so far in the precipitation department, with 37.78" of rain so far at MSP airport. That makes this the second wettest start to the year on record - behind only 2002 when 37.92" of rain had fallen. If we didn't see any additional rain, it would already be the eighth wettest year on record, and we don't need too much more for it to be the wettest (40.32" in 2016).
Hear that? It's the swoosh of strong winds blowing through the region again on Friday - not like we haven't already heard enough of that so far this month. Through the first 16 days of the month (through Wednesday) we have had a wind gust of at least 30 mph on 12 of the days - and wind gusts of at least 40 mph on four of those days. The peak wind gust so far this month was 48 mph, which was reached at 2:01 AM this past Saturday (the 12th). According to the 30-year averages, October is the windiest Autumn month on record with an average wind speed of 10 mph, but it is only the fourth windiest month on average out of the full year.
This Day in Weather History
1950: Record high temperatures are set across the area as highs reached the mid to upper 80s. Minneapolis and Farmington saw highs of 87 degrees Fahrenheit, while Albert Lea reached 86 degrees.
1916: A blizzard impacts Minnesota. A sharp temperature drop begins as well; Hallock drops from the 60s to 2 above by the 20th.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
Average High: 57F (Record: 87F set in 1950)
Average Low: 39F (Record: 18F set in 1972)
Average Precipitation: 0.09" (Record: 1.05" set in 1979)
Average Snowfall: 0.0" (Record: 1.3" set in 1976)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Sunrise: 7:32 AM
Sunset: 6:23 PM
*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 50 minutes and 55 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~3 minute and 0 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 10.5 Hours Of Daylight? October 26th (10 hours, 27 minutes, and 17 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before Daylight Time Ends: November 2nd (7:52 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM: November 2nd (6:00 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
Expect a mix of sun and clouds for Friday across Minnesota, with highs ranging from the 50s up north to almost touching 70s in far southwestern portions of the state. A few showers might traverse the state, particularly during the evening and overnight hours, as a weak cold front moves through.
Highs on Friday will be up to 10F above average across most of the state. The exception will be up toward Grand Marais, where they will just be around average. The average high for October 18th in the Twin Cities is 57F.
Winds will be strong across the state on Friday, with some areas (including the Twin Cities) potentially seeing wind gusts of 30+ mph, continuing to add to the number of windy days that we have observed.
Highs this MEA weekend will be about 5F above average, with sunnier conditions expected Saturday versus Sunday. While Saturday morning could feature a few showers hanging around, expect most of the day to be dry. Clouds thicken up Sunday ahead of a system which will bring rain chances in Sunday Night into Monday.
After the weekend, though, the temperatures start to drop with and behind that next system. By Tuesday, highs may only be in the 40s, about 6F degrees below average.
Enjoy the warmer weather the next few days, as the extended forecast shows that cooler weather that moves in early next week sticking around for the foreseeable future. There might be a chance that we could see highs approach 60F during the last weekend of the month, however, chances could be slim of that occurring at the moment.
Besides the shower chance Friday Night into early Saturday in the Twin Cities, we will remain dry through the MEA weekend with the next chance of rain moving in Sunday Night into Monday. Some of that rain could be heavy, with the potential of over an inch of precipitation early next week.
National Weather Forecast
On Friday, the area of low pressure responsible for heavy rain and hurricane-force winds across the Northeast will be winding down across portions of Canada but still producing some rain and higher elevation snow across New England, particularly early in the day. What will be "Nestor" will be in the Gulf of Mexico, already bringing some rain to the northern Gulf Coast (more on this system below). A frontal system moving through the central U.S. will bring some scattered showers and storms with it from the Upper Midwest into far northern Texas. Meanwhile, rain and snow will be possible from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies.
Areas of heavy rain will be possible in the Northwest (where 1-2" will be possible for areas like Seattle and Portland) and along the Gulf Coast with "Nestor." Some snow will fall from the Cascades into the central Rockies, with the heaviest expected across the Cascades.
Here's a closer look at the expected precipitation totals in the Northwest with a good 1-2" possible for areas like Seattle and Portland.
The good news is that they could use the rain, as they are running a good 2-4" below average for 2019 so far.
Bomb Cyclone Sets Record As Strongest October Storm Ever In Boston Area
More from CBS Boston: "An intensifying coastal storm bombed out overnight and brought flooding rain and damaging winds to the area. Low pressure rapidly intensified as it moved up the coast into the northeast late Wednesday into Thursday. The storm’s central pressure plummeted 30 millibars in only 15 hours from late Wednesday morning to early Thursday morning. The definition of a ‘bomb cyclone’ is one that drops in pressure by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less. As this storm intensified, the central pressure dropped to a new record for lowest pressure during October in our area."
Hurricane Dorian Oil Spill Has Reached Freshwater Resources in the Bahamas
More from Earther: "Nearly 5 million gallons of oil spilled from a Bahamas facility in the wake of Hurricane Dorian. And now advocates have found evidence that the oil from the facility has made its way into nearby wetlands, pine forests, and mangroves. The Category 5 storm hit Grand Bahama and Abacos Islands last month, home to an Equinor oil facility. The company is still cleaning up the mess left behind at its South Riding Point facility in High Rock, which hugs the southern coast of Grand Bahama. Unfortunately, Equinor’s 250-people crew hasn’t been able to work quickly enough to keep oil from seeping into the environment."
Climate crisis raises risk of more Ebola outbreaks
More from CNN: "The climate crisis is going to raise the risk that Ebola will spread farther and reach areas previously unaffected by the virus, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. The study found that the climate crisis will bring a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the rate at which the deadly virus spills over from animals to humans by 2070. There will be an increased risk of more devastating outbreaks in areas of Africa that haven't seen outbreaks before under all of the climate warming scenarios the researchers looked at, including if humans cut their carbon emissions significantly or only slightly. Higher temperatures and slower social and economic development would lead to greater risk."
- D.J. Kayser