Editorial: Revenue forecast could aid governor

Updated: May 26, 2009 - 9:42 AM

Before he 'unallots,' Pawlenty needs fresh information.

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As Gov. Tim Pawlenty prepares a rare exercise of his authority to cut state spending, he might consider one more exceptional move: ordering an additional state revenue forecast this summer.

In the summer of 1980, at the start of a round of financial problems that rival today's, state finance officials advised then-Gov. Al Quie that the state budget was falling out of balance. Quie introduced Minnesotans to the term "unallotment," and unilaterally canceled $195 million in scheduled spending.

Quie says now that he regrets not calling the Legislature into special session that summer to help him do the political heavy lifting. He ultimately did -- four times in 1981-82. State law requires forecasts in late November and late February. But nothing prohibits a governor from ordering a special forecast when the economy is unstable.

Fresh numbers could be helpful to Pawlenty in coming weeks as he decides which appropriations to cancel. If the economy is improving, his cuts could be smaller, possibly sparing hundreds of health care and public safety jobs. If the state deficit is growing deeper, the governor would have reason to reconsider his decision to keep legislators out of session until their scheduled return next Feb. 4. The earlier a listing budget can be righted, the better.

State economist Tom Stinson said he's hesitant to recommend a full-blown new forecast before the state's national consulting firm issues its annual economic model update in August. But a less rigorous fresh analysis of the state's prospects can be made after the books close on fiscal 2009, in mid-July. Stinson said the governor would be well advised to wait for that update before completing the $1 billion-plus unallotment he contemplates to balance the 2010-11 state budget.

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