Ezra Klein: The politics of opting out

Last update: October 30, 2009 - 6:54 PM

Print this story

Follow Opinion Exchange on Twitter

Andrew Sullivan takes a look at what will happen if the Senate actually does pass an opt-out plan and sees disaster on the horizon for the Republicans. "Imagine Republicans in state legislatures having to argue and posture against an affordable health insurance plan for the folks, as [Bill] O'Reilly calls them, while evil liberals provide it elsewhere," says Sullivan. "Now, of course, if the public option is a disaster in some states, this argument could work in the long run. But in the short run? It's a political nightmare for the right as it is currently constituted. In fact, I can see a public option becoming the equivalent of Medicare in the public psyche if it works as it should. Try running against Medicare."

My opinion on this is, I admit, a minority opinion, but I don't think there will be any real fight over the public option, and I think that virtually no states will opt out.

Consider, for a moment, the individual mandate. In January of 2008, nothing was more divisive. It was a central controversy in the Democratic primary. People who had never given a moment's thought to the structure of insurance markets developed extremely strong opinions on the topic. Fast forward a year, and the controversy is gone. Obama has quietly reversed his position. His supporters are totally uninterested in battling an individual mandate. Once the issue left the center of the political discussion, it never returned, even though it's much closer to passage now than it was during last year's primary campaign, and even though the candidate who opposed it won the election.

My prediction is that the public option will be much like that. States wouldn't be able to opt out till 2014. By 2014, we'll be arguing over all manner of things, but a public insurance option for the small sliver of the population with access to the health insurance exchanges will not be one of those things. In that scenario, where there's very little controversy over the public option, I don't believe that state legislatures and governors are going to go to the trouble of rejecting it, and I don't believe that anyone will manage to reinvigorate the controversy around it. The controversy around the public option is an expression of the controversy around Barack Obama's presidency in general, and health care reform in particular.

EZRA KLEIN, WASHINGTONPOST .COM

Recent Commentary stories

Garrison Keillor: Let's leave Afghanistan before it's last call - October 30, 2009

Garrison Keillor: Let's leave Afghanistan before it's last call - We don't like quitting, but we also don't like overstaying our welcome. More

Comment on this story | Read all 3 comments | Hide reader comments

New ideas for the public sector

THERE'S NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME to create a more efficient Minnesota. Facing large budget deficits at the state, county and local levels, Minnesotans are seeing with new clarity that the public sector must adapt to new economic realities. Only the smartest, most strategic reinvention will ensure that our tax dollars are spent on the best programs and services. Read more

About Opinion Exchange

Opinion Exchange is produced by the Editorial Department, which is dedicated to hosting the discussion on a range of issues of interest to Star Tribune readers online and in print. In its new format, it's our hope that Opinion Exhange will create a more dynamic dialogue between Star Tribune readers and the Editorial Board. Many individual posts will be written and signed by members of the Editorial Board and will reflect their own opinions. Daily editorials will continue to represent the institutional voice of the newspaper and be researched and written by the Editorial Department, which is independent of the newsroom.

Subscribe to RSS|Learn more about RSS